Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
350 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast across NC tonight and early
Thursday. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...

Latest surface analysis shows a surface boundary extending west
and southwest from near Elizabeth City into central NC and then
southwest to near Charlotte. Behind the boundary, dew points
have fallen into the upper 50s. South of the boundary, dew
points are in the upper 60s to lower 70s with a light southwest
wind. Another cold front was approaching the western
Appalachians. The 12Z upper air analysis shows a fairly
unidirectional southwesterly flow with a broad upper- level
trough over the Great Lakes region. The stronger flow aloft, as
noted by 40+kt winds at 500 hPa have retreated north a bit to
near the NC/VA border with the main jet core located across the
eastern OH valley. The airmass across central NC is drier than
yesterday at this time with PW values ranging from near 1.1 in
the Triad to around 1.4 in the Coastal Plain.

Widely scattered to scattered convection has developed this
afternoon in three primary areas across the region. In the RAH
CWA, convection was developing near and ahead of the surface
boundary across the eastern Piedmont, the Sandhills and Coastal
Plain. These storms have produced a some hail up to the size of
quarters. Two additional broken bands of convection have
developed to the west, the first on the ridges of the southern
Appalachians and the other just ahead of the front in KY, WV,
and VA. These areas of convection will shift east and southeast
during the evening and gradually wane with the loss of heating
but not before bringing a chance of convection to our area.
Still expect the best coverage and intensity to the convection
will be across the east ahead of the boundary, in deeper
moisture and in greater instability with MLCAPE values ranging
between 1000 and 1500 J/Kg this afternoon with much weaker
instability to the west. The low and especially mid- level flow
is rather robust supporting 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-35kts
across the south and 40-45kts near the VA/NC border.

Not surprisingly, SPC has placed much of the area in a marginal
risk for severe storms. Additional strong to severe storms are
possible this afternoon and early evening, mainly across the
east and especially where the overlap of the best MLCAPE and
shear is present across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain.
Sct convection will gradually subside late this evening and
overnight, ending in the west and Northwest first and the east
last well after midnight. Lows tonight will range in the lower
to mid 60s.

The front will clear the RAH CWA very late tonight toward
daybreak Thursday morning. With a drier airmass moving into the
region expect partly to mostly sunny skies. Dew points will
fall and mix into the mid to upper 50s by Thursday afternoon
with high temperatures in the 84 to 90 range.
-Blaes

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Wednesday...

Rather tranquil weather pattern Thu night through Friday night as
deep upper level low over northern New England gradually pulls away
to the east-northeast. This will allow upper heights to recover
somewhat, placing central NC on the southern edge of the main nw
flow axis. Any perturbations in this flow may be accompanied by a
weaken cluster of convection which may brush our far northern
counties overnight Friday night.

Daytime temperatures will average close to norm while nighttime
temperatures will gradually become above normal due to an
increasingly moist air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 PM Wednesday...

Probability of unsettled weather increases through the weekend as a
series of upper level disturbances in the nw flow aloft crosses
overhead. An amplifying s/w approaching from the northwest will
enhance the convective coverage late Sunday into Monday, with a
frontal passage probable Monday night. Cannot rule out the potential
for a few severe storms Monday thanks to kinematics but low level
instability may inhibit storm severity.

Presence of mid/upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will
result in a period of below normal temperatures across central NC
Tue/Wed. A lingering shower/storm may still occur early tuesday with
present indicators suggesting dry weather for most of tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday...

A weak surface boundary stretched across central NC from northeast
to southwest this afternoon while a stronger cold front approaching
the western Appalachians this afternoon will move southeast across
central NC late tonight. These features will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The strongest
storms will likely be across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain
possibly impacting the KFAY and KRWI terminals, but confidence is
limited so will avoid inclusion of thunder in the TAFs for now and
just noted heavier showers. Convection will gradually wane overnight
with the loss of heating and limited upper air support. VFR
conditions will predominate through the TAF period with a SCT-BKN
cloud layer between 5-8kft through the overnight hours. Light winds,
from the north across the northern half of the CWA and the southwest
across the southern half, will become light west and southwesterly
for much of the overnight before becoming west and northwesterly
behind the front around and after daybreak.

Looking further ahead... High pressure and fair weather conditions
are expected Thursday and Friday. An upper level trough approaches
for the weekend into Monday with increasing chances of mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BLAES

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
327 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

NCZ010-011-026>028-040>043-075>078-083>086-088-089-011930-
Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Sampson-
327 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A
few storms could become severe with hail as big as quarters, wind
gusts in excess of 55 MPH, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>009-021>025-038-039-073-074-011930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-
327 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A strong thunderstorm or two is possible late this afternoon into
this evening. The main hazards are expected to be gusty winds to 40
or 50 mph and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
339 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

NCZ075-077-088-312030-
Harnett NC-Moore NC-Cumberland NC-
339 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of southwestern
Harnett...east central Moore and northwestern Cumberland Counties
Until 430 PM EDT...

At 338 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Pope AFB, or 10 miles northwest of Fort Bragg,
moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, Pope AFB, Spring Lake, Pineview, Anderson
Creek and Timberlake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3517 7908 3517 7910 3518 7910 3517 7912
      3518 7913 3517 7914 3518 7916 3518 7917
      3519 7918 3519 7920 3520 7922 3526 7922
      3538 7896 3512 7886
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 248DEG 8KT 3523 7915

GIH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
436 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

NCZ038-312115-
Davidson NC-
436 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of northern Davidson
County Until 515 PM EDT...

At 435 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cooleemee, or near Mocksville, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
High Point, Lexington, Thomasville, Linwood, Arcadia, Welcome and
Gordontown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 8048 3583 8046 3584 8044 3583 8043
      3585 8042 3584 8040 3585 8039 3587 8039
      3588 8042 3589 8037 3594 8037 3599 8004
      3575 8006 3575 8046 3577 8045 3579 8048
      3581 8047 3583 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 267DEG 26KT 3585 8045

WSS

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