Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast across NC tonight and early
Thursday. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...

Latest surface analysis shows a surface boundary extending west
and southwest from near Elizabeth City into central NC and then
southwest to near Charlotte. Behind the boundary, dew points
have fallen into the upper 50s. South of the boundary, dew
points are in the upper 60s to lower 70s with a light southwest
wind. Another cold front was approaching the western
Appalachians. The 12Z upper air analysis shows a fairly
unidirectional southwesterly flow with a broad upper- level
trough over the Great Lakes region. The stronger flow aloft, as
noted by 40+kt winds at 500 hPa have retreated north a bit to
near the NC/VA border with the main jet core located across the
eastern OH valley. The airmass across central NC is drier than
yesterday at this time with PW values ranging from near 1.1 in
the Triad to around 1.4 in the Coastal Plain.

Widely scattered to scattered convection has developed this
afternoon in three primary areas across the region. In the RAH
CWA, convection was developing near and ahead of the surface
boundary across the eastern Piedmont, the Sandhills and Coastal
Plain. These storms have produced a some hail up to the size of
quarters. Two additional broken bands of convection have
developed to the west, the first on the ridges of the southern
Appalachians and the other just ahead of the front in KY, WV,
and VA. These areas of convection will shift east and southeast
during the evening and gradually wane with the loss of heating
but not before bringing a chance of convection to our area.
Still expect the best coverage and intensity to the convection
will be across the east ahead of the boundary, in deeper
moisture and in greater instability with MLCAPE values ranging
between 1000 and 1500 J/Kg this afternoon with much weaker
instability to the west. The low and especially mid- level flow
is rather robust supporting 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-35kts
across the south and 40-45kts near the VA/NC border.

Not surprisingly, SPC has placed much of the area in a marginal
risk for severe storms. Additional strong to severe storms are
possible this afternoon and early evening, mainly across the
east and especially where the overlap of the best MLCAPE and
shear is present across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain.
Sct convection will gradually subside late this evening and
overnight, ending in the west and Northwest first and the east
last well after midnight. Lows tonight will range in the lower
to mid 60s.

The front will clear the RAH CWA very late tonight toward
daybreak Thursday morning. With a drier airmass moving into the
region expect partly to mostly sunny skies. Dew points will
fall and mix into the mid to upper 50s by Thursday afternoon
with high temperatures in the 84 to 90 range.
-Blaes

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Wednesday...

Weak high pressure will bring drier air into the region. Dew
points are expected to fall into the 40s/50s bringing a
refreshing change for a day or so. Expect mostly clear skies
Thursday night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM Wednesday...

Medium range models continue to show a mid/upper level low over SE
Canada/New England late week and slowly wobbling eastward, yielding
northwest flow aloft over central NC for Friday into Saturday. The
latest GFS/ECMWF continues to depict a low chance for any convection
during this period. However, as moisture begins to increase across
the area on Saturday again, combined with the potential for
disturbances in the northwest flow will maintain a low end chance
pop for Saturday. Expect high temps will be in the mid to upper 80s,
with a few lower 90s across the south/southeast. Low temps are
expected to be in the 60s, to near 70s some of the urban areas and
SE.

Additional S/W energy will dive southward from central Canada this
weekend into the back side of the mean Eastern U.S. mid/upper level
trough. This will cause the mid/upper level flow to amplify over the
Eastern U.S. again, with the development of deep mid/upper level low
across the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes Region, helping to send an
associated cold front(s) towards central NC Sunday into Monday. This
should result in above normal chances for showers and storms
(possibly severe) Sunday into Monday, with cooler and possibly below
normal temps by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday...

A weak surface boundary stretched across central NC from northeast
to southwest this afternoon while a stronger cold front approaching
the western Appalachians this afternoon will move southeast across
central NC late tonight. These features will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The strongest
storms will likely be across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain
possibly impacting the KFAY and KRWI terminals, but confidence is
limited so will avoid inclusion of thunder in the TAFs for now and
just noted heavier showers. Convection will gradually wane overnight
with the loss of heating and limited upper air support. VFR
conditions will predominate through the TAF period with a SCT-BKN
cloud layer between 5-8kft through the overnight hours. Light winds,
from the north across the northern half of the CWA and the southwest
across the southern half, will become light west and southwesterly
for much of the overnight before becoming west and northwesterly
behind the front around and after daybreak.

Looking further ahead... High pressure and fair weather conditions
are expected Thursday and Friday. An upper level trough approaches
for the weekend into Monday with increasing chances of mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...BLAES

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
327 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

NCZ010-011-026>028-040>043-075>078-083>086-088-089-011930-
Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Sampson-
327 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A
few storms could become severe with hail as big as quarters, wind
gusts in excess of 55 MPH, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>009-021>025-038-039-073-074-011930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-
327 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A strong thunderstorm or two is possible late this afternoon into
this evening. The main hazards are expected to be gusty winds to 40
or 50 mph and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
218 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

NCZ042-043-078-311915-
Johnston NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
218 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...Strong thunderstorms will affect portions of central Johnston...
northeastern Wayne and southern Wilson Counties Until 315 PM EDT...

At 218 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Smithfield, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Wilson, Clayton, Fremont, Micro, Selma, Pine Level,
Kenly, Princeton and Lucama.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3545 7783 3547 7851 3565 7849
      3574 7776 3561 7776
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 262DEG 14KT 3556 7840

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
218 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

NCZ075-077-086-088-311900-
Hoke NC-Harnett NC-Moore NC-Cumberland NC-
218 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of northeastern
Hoke... southwestern Harnett...east central Moore and northwestern
Cumberland Counties Until 300 PM EDT...

At 218 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Pope AFB, or 10 miles northwest of Fort Bragg,
moving east at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, Pope AFB, Spring Lake, Pineview, Anderson
Creek, Timberlake and Bonnie Doone.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3516 7925 3528 7924 3530 7918 3532 7910
      3534 7889 3508 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 274DEG 11KT 3522 7916

WSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             2 SE ANDERSON CREEK     35.26N  78.90W
05/31/2017  M1.00 INCH       HARNETT            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ROPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1700552

GIH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

NCZ077-088-089-311930-
Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
250 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of northwestern
Sampson...south central Harnett and northern Cumberland Counties
Until 330 PM EDT...

At 248 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pope AFB, or near Fort Bragg, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, Godwin, Pope AFB, Spring Lake, Eastover,
Wade, Falcon, Linden and Bonnie Doone.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Those in the path of this storm should get to a safe shelter in a
nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as 40 mph are capable
of knocking down tree limbs.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 7902 3527 7901 3524 7854 3501 7858
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 278DEG 19KT 3518 7894

GIH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
328 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

NCZ088-089-312030-
Sampson NC-Cumberland NC-
328 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...a strong thunderstorm will affect portions of northern Sampson and
northeastern Cumberland Counties Until 430 PM EDT...

At 328 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Godwin, or 15 miles east of Fayetteville, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Godwin, Eastover, Wade, Salemburg, Turkey, Falcon, Hobbton
and Vander.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 7886 3525 7883 3523 7825 3522 7824
      3521 7818 3520 7816 3513 7816 3512 7817
      3509 7817 3508 7816 3497 7815
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 275DEG 25KT 3514 7863

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
339 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

NCZ075-077-088-312030-
Harnett NC-Moore NC-Cumberland NC-
339 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of southwestern
Harnett...east central Moore and northwestern Cumberland Counties
Until 430 PM EDT...

At 338 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Pope AFB, or 10 miles northwest of Fort Bragg,
moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, Pope AFB, Spring Lake, Pineview, Anderson
Creek and Timberlake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3517 7908 3517 7910 3518 7910 3517 7912
      3518 7913 3517 7914 3518 7916 3518 7917
      3519 7918 3519 7920 3520 7922 3526 7922
      3538 7896 3512 7886
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 248DEG 8KT 3523 7915

GIH