Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1045 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi-stationary front across the area will be the focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially from the VA/NC
border northward. Several quick-moving disturbances will cross the
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic over the course of the week, leading
to periods of unsettled weather, with the potential for organized
areas of thunderstorms to move southeast along the stationary front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1045 PM Wednesday...

Isolated mini supercell thunderstorms propagating southeast out of
south-central VA are riding along a quasi-stationary frontal zone
extending south into the area. Latest radar and lightning trends
suggest that diminishing instability, owing to loss of heating, will
result in further weakening with severe threat rapidly diminishing
over the next couple of hours, with large hail the primary threat.

If the second batch of widely scattered convection across south-
central Va holds together it will skirt across the NE Coastal Plain
counties and should be out of the area by 06z.

Overnight temperatures generally 60-65 degrees.

By early Thursday, a larger scale synoptic shortwave is
forecast to move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This
will likely initiate an MCS over the Ohio Valley during the
overnight tonight, this feature moving downstream toward the
VA/NC border after daybreak Thursday. Highest probability for
showers/storms associated with this feature Thursday morning
will be across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain
with a more areawide response Thursday afternoon pending
remnant outflow boundary.

For the next several days the highest probability for rainfall
and cloud cover will be across the north, associated with the
coolest temperatures. Warmest readings will be across the south
where readings may approach 90 degrees. ~PM

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Thursday night, a nearly stationary frontal boundary will still be
positioned from roughly Ohio southeast into far eastern North
Carolina. While isolated to scattered showers are expected along
this feature, a greater coverage of activity will be possible during
the second half of the overnight hours as a potential mesoscale
convective complex rides southeast along this boundary into parts of
central and eastern Virginia. The southern extent of this feature
may intersect the far northeast sections of the forecast area. With
guidance trending the focus for precipitation farther north within
the forecast area, have downplayed the potential across the far
southwest sections as the night progresses.

During the course of the day Friday into Friday night, precipitation
chances will increase again in advance of an approaching upper level
low. This feature will be heading through central Tennessee by the
afternoon. Good jet dynamics in advance of the low/trough will help
trigger a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The Day 3
Convective Outlook by the Storm Prediction Center places a marginal
risk of severe weather across the far southwestern portions of the
forecast are during this time period.

The upper low and its associated cold front are progged to cross the
region during the day Saturday. This will be another day of very
good coverage of showers. The bulk of the activity will be east of
the region by the peak heating of the day. This will limit any
thunderstorm activity to the mainly the eastern half of the region
through mid-day. The cold front will be east of the area by Saturday
evening. Clearing skies are expected through the evening hours, with
all locations clear by midnight.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average about
five degrees above normal in regards to low temperatures, and close
to five degrees below normal in regards to high temperatures.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

For the weekend and early next week, both surface high pressure and
an upper level ridge will build over the area. This scenario will
allow for moderating temperatures as heights build, limited cloud
cover, and no precipitation in the forecast.

Temperatures will trend milder each day. While temperatures on
Sunday will be near normal, by Wednesday, readings about five to ten
degrees above normal are anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 845 PM Wednesday...

24 Hour TAF period: Mostly VFR conditions across the area this hour
and this should continue through much of the night for most
locations but there is a chance for fog/low stratus mainly in the
northeast with KRWI having the greatest chance for sub-VFR
conditions. A chance for showers and storms tomorrow afternoon will
once again be greatest in the northeastern half of the forecast
area. Some of these storms could become severe.

Long Term: Unsettled weather continues through Saturday before
clearing out on Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CBL/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...ELLIS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
Issued by National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
356 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017

NCZ038-039-073>075-083-084-112000-
Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Anson-Richmond-
356 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon and overnight. The main severe weather threat will be hail
up to one inch in diameter and locally damaging winds.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible Friday
afternoon and evening with damaging winds and large hail as the main
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ021>025-040>042-076>078-085-086-088-089-112000-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Lee-
Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
356 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon and overnight. The main severe weather threat will be hail
up to one inch in diameter and locally damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-026>028-043-112000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-
356 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and
overnight. The main severe weather threat will be hail up to one inch
in diameter and locally damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1235 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

NCZ010-110500-
Warren NC-
1235 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of central Warren
County Until 100 AM EDT...

At 1234 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking A strong thunderstorm over
Warrenton, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Pea to dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Warrenton, Norlina, Macon and Arcola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 7794 3620 7801 3621 7804 3621 7811
      3623 7813 3624 7813 3625 7815 3639 7826
      3643 7825 3648 7813
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 321DEG 22KT 3639 7817

VINCENT