Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Raleigh, NC

223 
WWUS52 KRAH 110225
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017

NCC185-110300-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170511T0300Z/
Warren NC-
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR WARREN COUNTY...

At 1024 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest
of Norlina, or 11 miles northwest of Warrenton, moving southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Warrenton, Norlina, Littleton, Macon, Drewry, Afton, Wise,
Southpointe And Morningstar Marinas and Lake Gaston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Straight line winds can blow down trees, power lines, and damage
mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

If on or near Kerr Lake, get away from the water and move indoors or 
inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles 
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close 
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now!  Do not 
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7791 3644 7792 3638 7791 3634 7793
      3623 7813 3625 7813 3624 7816 3626 7817
      3625 7819 3627 7830 3630 7828 3632 7828
      3654 7832 3654 7801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 313DEG 20KT 3652 7828 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ellis

756 
WWUS52 KRAH 110253
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1053 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017

NCC185-110303-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170511T0300Z/
Warren NC-
1053 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WARREN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1100 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Raleigh.

LAT...LON 3649 7791 3644 7792 3638 7791 3634 7793
      3623 7813 3625 7813 3624 7816 3626 7817
      3625 7819 3627 7830 3630 7828 3632 7828
      3654 7832 3654 7801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 313DEG 27KT 3638 7809 

$$

Ellis

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
841 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary front extends from Cincinnati, Ohio to Wilmington
North Carolina. This front will be the focus for scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially from the VA/NC border
northward. Several quick-moving disturbances will cross the
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic over the course of the week,
leading to periods of unsettled weather, with the potential
for organized areas of thunderstorms to move southeast along
the stationary front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 PM Wednesday...

Slightly unstable air mass covers most of central NC early this
evening with the main axis of instability extending from Roxboro-
Raleigh-Goldsboro. Atmosphere currently capped as per RAP forecast
sounding data and evidence of lack of appreciable cu filed across
the region.

Still a small chance for an isolated shower or storm this evening.
This threat appears best north and northeast of Raleigh, covering
the VA border counties as well as sections of the northern coastal
plain.

Have adjusted hourly temperatures to reflect reality. Most places
will remain above 70 degrees through 10-11 PM. Overnight
temperatures generally 60-65 degrees. ~WSS

By early Thursday, a larger scale synoptic shortwave is
forecast to move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This
will likely initiate an MCS over the Ohio Valley during the
overnight tonight, this feature moving downstream toward the
VA/NC border after daybreak Thursday. Highest probability for
showers/storms associated with this feature Thursday morning
will be across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain
with a more areawide response Thursday afternoon pending
remnant outflow boundary.

For the next several days the highest probability for rainfall
and cloud cover will be across the north, associated with the
coolest temperatures. Warmest readings will be across the south
where readings may approach 90 degrees. ~PM

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Thursday night, a nearly stationary frontal boundary will still be
positioned from roughly Ohio southeast into far eastern North
Carolina. While isolated to scattered showers are expected along
this feature, a greater coverage of activity will be possible during
the second half of the overnight hours as a potential mesoscale
convective complex rides southeast along this boundary into parts of
central and eastern Virginia. The southern extent of this feature
may intersect the far northeast sections of the forecast area. With
guidance trending the focus for precipitation farther north within
the forecast area, have downplayed the potential across the far
southwest sections as the night progresses.

During the course of the day Friday into Friday night, precipitation
chances will increase again in advance of an approaching upper level
low. This feature will be heading through central Tennessee by the
afternoon. Good jet dynamics in advance of the low/trough will help
trigger a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The Day 3
Convective Outlook by the Storm Prediction Center places a marginal
risk of severe weather across the far southwestern portions of the
forecast are during this time period.

The upper low and its associated cold front are progged to cross the
region during the day Saturday. This will be another day of very
good coverage of showers. The bulk of the activity will be east of
the region by the peak heating of the day. This will limit any
thunderstorm activity to the mainly the eastern half of the region
through mid-day. The cold front will be east of the area by Saturday
evening. Clearing skies are expected through the evening hours, with
all locations clear by midnight.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average about
five degrees above normal in regards to low temperatures, and close
to five degrees below normal in regards to high temperatures.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

For the weekend and early next week, both surface high pressure and
an upper level ridge will build over the area. This scenario will
allow for moderating temperatures as heights build, limited cloud
cover, and no precipitation in the forecast.

Temperatures will trend milder each day. While temperatures on
Sunday will be near normal, by Wednesday, readings about five to ten
degrees above normal are anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 845 PM Wednesday...

24 Hour TAF period: Mostly VFR conditions across the area this hour
and this should continue through much of the night for most
locations but there is a chance for fog/low stratus mainly in the
northeast with KRWI having the greatest chance for sub-VFR
conditions. A chance for showers and storms tomorrow afternoon will
once again be greatest in the northeastern half of the forecast
area. Some of these storms could become severe.

Long Term: Unsettled weather continues through Saturday before
clearing out on Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WSS/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...ELLIS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
Issued by National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
356 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017

NCZ038-039-073>075-083-084-112000-
Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Anson-Richmond-
356 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon and overnight. The main severe weather threat will be hail
up to one inch in diameter and locally damaging winds.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible Friday
afternoon and evening with damaging winds and large hail as the main
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ021>025-040>042-076>078-085-086-088-089-112000-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Lee-
Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
356 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon and overnight. The main severe weather threat will be hail
up to one inch in diameter and locally damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-026>028-043-112000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-
356 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and
overnight. The main severe weather threat will be hail up to one inch
in diameter and locally damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.