Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Raleigh, NC

659 
WWUS52 KRAH 272128
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
528 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

NCC077-145-272215-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-170527T2215Z/
Person NC-Granville NC-
528 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PERSON AND NORTHWESTERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES...

At 527 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Virgilina, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Bethel Hill, Mayo Reservoir and Berea. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Straight line winds can blow down trees, power lines, and damage
mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7862 3638 7861 3633 7865 3628 7872
      3627 7879 3631 7884 3640 7893 3644 7896
      3649 7899 3654 7898 3654 7870 3653 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 308DEG 20KT 3647 7887 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

VINCENT

557 
WWUS52 KRAH 272132
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
532 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

NCC077-145-272215-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-170527T2215Z/
Person NC-Granville NC-
532 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PERSON AND NORTHWESTERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES...

At 532 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles south of
Virgilina, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected, in addition 
         to wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Bethel Hill, Mayo Reservoir and Berea. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Straight line winds can blow down trees, power lines, and damage
mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7862 3638 7861 3633 7865 3630 7869
      3629 7875 3631 7880 3636 7885 3641 7889
      3644 7891 3649 7893 3652 7892 3654 7890
      3654 7870 3653 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 304DEG 18KT 3646 7882 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

VINCENT

044 
WWUS52 KRAH 272142
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
542 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

NCC077-145-272215-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-170527T2215Z/
Person NC-Granville NC-
542 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PERSON AND NORTHWESTERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES...

At 542 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Virgilina, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Berea and Mayo Reservoir. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Straight line winds can blow down trees, power lines, and damage
mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7862 3638 7861 3634 7864 3632 7867
      3631 7872 3633 7877 3636 7881 3641 7886
      3644 7887 3648 7887 3652 7886 3654 7883
      3654 7870 3653 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 308DEG 19KT 3642 7875 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

VINCENT

187 
WWUS52 KRAH 272146
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
546 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

NCC077-145-272155-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-170527T2215Z/
Person NC-Granville NC-
546 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PERSON AND
NORTHWESTERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened and severe weather 
is no longer expected. As a result, the warning has been cancelled. 

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will remain possible with this thunderstorm 
as it tracks toward Oxford in central Granville county.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3646 7862 3638 7861 3634 7864 3632 7867
      3631 7872 3633 7877 3636 7881 3641 7886
      3644 7887 3648 7887 3652 7886 3654 7883
      3654 7870 3653 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 307DEG 13KT 3641 7874 

$$

VINCENT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
815 PM Sat EDT May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will be located over the Piedmont this afternoon
through Sunday. An upper level disturbance will cross the region
this afternoon and early evening, followed by another disturbance
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM Saturday...

A 40-50kt westerly flow in the mid levels is in place from the mid-
Mississippi valley east across NC/VA. At the surface, surface dew
points are in the lower 60s. With ample sunshine, temperatures are
expected to peak in the upper 80s to around 90F resulting in MLCapes
on the order of 2000+ J/KG. A shortwave moving through KY/TN will
support the development of scattered thunderstorms after 21Z and
mainly over the northern Piedmont. Latest model trends have the
storms moving east-southeastward, crossing much of central NC from
22Z Sat to 06Z Sun. Considering the expected favorable elevated
mixed layer (EML) and the degree of instability expected, some of
the thunderstorms may contain damaging wind and hail expected.

After the evening thunderstorms move by, areas to our west will have
to be watched in the fast flow aloft as storms upstream may be able
to make it east of the Mountains, albeit in a weaker state, toward
daybreak due to the lingering instability and strong steering flow.
Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

..SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

Sunday and Sunday night: The MCV currently over northern
Missouri/southern Iowa is generally forecast to stay north of the
area while shearing out across the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes
overnight, with new convective development and associated MCV
predicted across parts of Missouri/Ozarks later this
afternoon/evening. This will be the region to watch over the next 12
hours, with Sunday's convective forecast highly dependent on the
magnitude/timing of these convectively enhanced disturbances. Adding
to the already complex convective forecast will be the evolution of
this evening/tonight's convection, with the potential for the
convection to leave behind an old convective outflow/TMB across the
area which could served as a secondary focus for convective
initiation.

Will maintain good chance pops,highest across the western/central
Piedmont during the afternoon and into the early evening, with
decreasing pops by 03 to 06z due to a cooling BL. Steep mid-level
lapse rates will linger across the region, with models showing 1500-
2500 J/KG of MLCAPE developing amidst a moistening boundary layer(
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s). When combined with deep layer
shear of 40 to 50 kts, if organized convection develops or moves
into the area on Sunday, the environment will be supportive of
supercells capable of producing straight line winds and large hail.

Highs Sunday very similar to today with highs ranging from mid 80s
north to lower 90s south. Lows 65 to 70.

Monday and Monday night:

The closed low over the Upper Great Lakes will wobble slowly east on
Monday. A surface cold front, attendant to a northern stream
shortwave trough lifting off to the north/northeast, will weaken and
likely stall as it moves the area late Monday afternoon into Monday
night. Meanwhile, models suggest the potential for shortwave
disturbances, embedded in the SW flow aloft between the upper low to
our north and the subtropical ridge over the SE States, to move
through the region. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are
possible across the area Monday afternoon and evening as the front
approaches from the west and with the continued threat of
disturbances moving through the region. While storm intensity should
weaken with loss of heating, with the front expected to stall across
the area, the chance of showers could linger well into the overnight
hours.  Strong daytime heating within the moist and moderately
unstable airmass combined with continued strong mid-level flow that
will support favorable/strong deep layer shear of 40-50 kts will
result in another slight risk for severe storms across the area with
damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.

Highs in the mid 80s north to near 90 south. Lows in the mid 60s NW
to lower 70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

Closed low will move slowly east across SE Canada and NE U.S.
through the period. Central NC will find itself near the base of the
associated upper trough and accompanying strong belt of westerlies
extending south into the region. While there is generally good
agreement on the synoptic scale pattern, sensible weather next week
will be greatly influenced by the many shortwave disturbances that
are forecast to track through the region within the low amplitude
west-southwesterly flow aloft between the aforementioned closed low
to the north and the subtropical ridge to our south. Additionally,
the exact evolution of these disturbances timing/track/magnitude)
will likely play a role in the location of a nearby sfc boundary
that's forecast to stall across the SE states. Thus, expect pops
near to above climo each day, dependent on difficult to time
disturbances, with convection likely to exhibit a diurnal trend.
Expect seasonable temperatures with highs ranging from lower 80s
north to mid/upper 80s south. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 815 PM Saturday...

Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be approaching
central NC from the north and also from the west tonight. The
convection will be weakening but will still pose a modest threat at
INT & GSO through around midnight, and perhaps at RDU towards
midnight, but chances are rather low. Expect a repeat of convection
developing along the northern tier Sunday afternoon/evening, but low
confidence at this point regarding how much coverage we might
receive.

All told, outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected through
the 24 hour TAF period, although there could be patches of MVFR fog
in the predawn at locations which do receive rain.

Outlook: There be a chance of mainly late day storms Monday through
Wednesday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west and
potentially stalls over the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett/Franklin
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...mlm

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
446 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

NCZ021>025-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-282100-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
446 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this evening,
primarily north and east of the Triangle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms will persist during the
afternoon and evening hours on both Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-026>028-282100-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
446 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms will persist during the
afternoon and evening hours on both Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for severe thunderstorm watch 278, in
effect until 10 pm EDT this evening for locations north and east of
the Triangle.

VINCENT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
455 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

NCZ007-008-272130-
Person NC-Granville NC-
455 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of northern Person and
northwestern Granville Counties Until 530 PM EDT...

At 454 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alton, or 4 miles southeast of Turbeville, moving southeast at 25
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roxboro, Concord, Bethel Hill, Mayo Reservoir and Hyco Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3636 7880 3650 7914 3654 7914 3654 7862
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 293DEG 21KT 3656 7899

VINCENT