Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Raleigh, NC

674 
WWUS52 KRAH 020021
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
821 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

NCC191-020030-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-170902T0030Z/
Wayne NC-
821 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 830 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for the 
southern sections of central North Carolina.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Raleigh.

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3531 7783 3529 7789 3546 7798
      3554 7783 3543 7783 3540 7780 3538 7780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 245DEG 20KT 3545 7778 

$$

WSS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
450 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled west to east frontal zone across central NC will lift
north as a warm front late tonight as Harvey's remnants track slowly
northeast into Ohio Valley. A cold front will move slowly west to
east through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build into the
area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 450 PM Friday...

... There is a enhanced threat of severe storms capable of producing
tornadoes mainly in areas just south of the Triad and Triangle
areas, including Albemarle, Wadesboro, Southern Pines, Sanford, and
Fayetteville...through the evening...

...Widespread rain/clouds should limit severe chances over the Triad
and the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain...

Stalled frontal boundary that extends NW to SE along a line from
Lexington/Davidson Co. to Sanford/Lee Co. to Goldsboro/Wayne Co.
is separating an impressive cold air damming regime that features
temperatures in the lower 60s and a stiff NELY wind from the equally
impressive warm sector that has 4 pm temperatures in the
lower 90s.

Strengthening southwesterly low to mid-level flow, owing to the
NEWD jog of Harvey's remnants into eastern TN/KY is resulting in
crazy strong/favorable effective bulk shear of 60 to 70kt
that is allowing for discrete supercells to develop across the area.
When these cells approach the stalled frontal zone and
encounter/interact equally favorable 0-1km helicity values of 200 to
300 ms-2 a quick spin-up of a tornado will be possible in a 10 to 15
mile swath on either side of the stalled frontal zone. Once any
storm moves more to far north into the more stable/wedge environment
that storms will weaken and become entirely elevated.

A prominent squall line has emerged across the western Piedmont and
it will progress eastward across central and eastern NC. Strong
damaging wind gusts will be possible along this line, mainly south
and east of US 64. Linear extrapolation suggests this squall line
will largely be east of the area by 03z. Thereafter, waning
instability should result in a decrease in both storm intensity and
coverage with scattered and mostly sub-severe convection through the
remainder of the night.

Additionally, storm total QPF of 1-2 inches appears likely, with
locally higher amounts, thus any flash flooding will be limited to
poor drainage areas such as urban areas.

Lows tonight will range from lower 60s NW to lower 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Friday...

Expect precip to lift northeast from central NC into northeast NC
and southeast VA during the day Sat as Harvey's remnants weaken and
lift northeast into the lower Great Lakes. Expect highs ranging from
~80F north to mid 80s south. Lows should range from the lower/mid
60s in the N/NW to mid/upper 60s SE. -Vincent

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 335 PM Friday...

Long range guidance continues to indicate dry conditions will
prevail Sun-Mon and perhaps through Tue, with central NC situated at
the southern fringe of the westerlies in a relatively dry (albeit
slowly modifying) airmass. Expect precipitation chances to markedly
increase by mid-week (with heavy rainfall possible) as shortwave
energy digs SE through the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes, an upper
level trough amplifies along/west of the Appalachians, and moisture
advects northeast from the GOMEX into the Carolinas. Expect near
normal temperatures early next week with below normal temperatures
mid-week as cloud cover and precip chances increase. -Vincent

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday through Wednesday/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

West-east oriented frontal zone will stall south of the Triangle or
generally south of Highway 64. IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to
dominate across the northern terminals(KINT,KGSO,KRDU and KRWI)
through 12 to 15z Saturday. Meanwhile, KFAY will remain south of
this front, with aviation conditions outside of convection, expected
to remain VFR. All TAF sites will see multiple rounds of showers and
storms this afternoon through around 06z. Severe storms capable of
producing damaging thunderstorm winds and an isolated tornado or two
is greatest at KFAY, KRDU and KRWI between 20 to 02z. Storms will
decrease in both coverage and intensity after 06z.

Stalled front will lift north as a warm front between 06 to 12z.
Ceilings in the wake of the front are expected to return to VFR
between 13 to 16z. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to re-develop Saturday afternoon, mainly
along and east of KRDU.

High pressure will build into the area Sunday through early next
week as surface high pressure builds over the area. The approach of
a cold front from the west late Tuesday night and Wednesday will
bring the next chance of showers/storms along with sub VFR
conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG
TERM...Vincent AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
714 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

NCZ083>086-088-089-022315-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
714 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 477 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-022315-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
714 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Although severe weather is unlikely on the
cool side of the front, an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be
entirely ruled out through midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW WAKE FOREST       35.96N 78.54W
09/01/2017                   WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING ON US 1 SOUTHBOUND RAMP FROM NC 98.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
744 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE CLAYTON           35.64N 78.45W
09/01/2017                   JOHNSTON           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING ON ROUTE 70 NEAR CHAMPION DRIVE.
            RIGHT LANE IMPASSABLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
751 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S GRANTHAM            35.24N 78.18W
09/01/2017                   WAYNE              NC   PUBLIC

            LARGE LIVE OAK TREE FELL ON A MOBILE HOME AT
            512 CROWS FOOT ROAD AND GRANTHAM SCHOOL
            ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S GRANTHAM            35.24N 78.18W
09/01/2017                   WAYNE              NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE LIVE OAK TREE FELL ON A MOBILE HOME AT
            512 CROWS FOOT ROAD AND GRANTHAM SCHOOL
            ROAD.

&&

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