Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
530 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...Monsoonal moisture continues to support locally heavy rain and
the potential for flash flooding tonight...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has upper high
across the Southern High Plains with weak to moderate westerly aloft
across the region at this time, as minor embedded waves continue to
ride the northern periphery of the ridge across the Northern Great
Basin and Northern Rockies at this time. 12Z soundings at GJT (1.36
inches) and DEN (1.11 inches) had PWATS at 150 to 200 percent of
normal across the region, with current water vapor imagery
indicating minor embedded disturbances across northwestern Colorado
and northern Central New Mexico at this time. With the ample
moisture in place, SPC meso analysis is indicating CAPES of 1500-
2000 j/kg across the area at this time.

Tonight and tomorrow...Latest high rest models continue to support
minor embedded waves moving across the area this afternoon and
evening, with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing
across the higher terrain through the evening, with storms spreading
east across the immediate adjacent plains and congealing into and
MCS across the far southeast plains overnight, with THETA E ridge in
place.

With the ample moisture in place, all storms will have the potential
for locally heavy rainfall and will continue to keep the Flash Flood
watch in place across the eastern mountains and plains through the
early morning hours, despite slightly more westerly steering flow
keeping storms moving a tad faster than previous days. The slightly
faster steering flow, however, is supporting bulk shear values on in
the 20 to 25kt range, leading to the potential for a few stronger
and rotating storms through the evening, capable of producing hail
up to the size of quarters and gusty outflow winds.

With the moist upslope flow, will likely see stratus developing
across the eastern plains later tonight and persist through the mid
morning hours of Thursday. This will likely keep much of eastern
Colorado too stable to support convection tomorrow. With that said,
latest models continue to keep best chances of storms over the
higher terrain west of the I-25 corridor tomorrow afternoon and
evening, and have tailored to forecast to follow suite.
 Storms tomorrow will continue to have ample moisture to work
with, keeping locally heavy rain and the potential for Flash
Flooding in the forecast. May need another Flash Flood Watch for
area burn scars tomorrow afternoon, however, will see how
tonight's rain plays out and let the next shift evaluate the need
for one. Temperatures to remain below seasonal averages tomorrow, with
highs generally in the 70s and 80s across the plains and mainly
50s and 60s across the higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

No big changes to current forecast as upper ridge looks to be
quasi- stationary across the southwest and south central US,
keeping the moisture rich monsoon plume over the central Rockies
through the rest of this week. This means widespread daily showers
and storms, first developing across the higher terrain and then
spreading into the adjacent high valleys and eastern plains.
Models have rain chances continuing into and through the overnight
as well. With the relatively weak flow aloft, and probable
development of MCS's, areas of heavy rain totals and potential
flash flooding will occur, especially across urban areas and burn
scars. There may be a few marginally severe storms during this
time period, and temperatures will be below seasonal norms, with
abundant cloud cover.

Through the weekend and early next week, trough across the eastern
US will push the upper ridge farther west.  Scattered afternoon and
evening showers and storms will be the rule, and be more
concentrated across the higher terrain and adjacent locations.
Storms would be enhanced, at times, with difficult to time
shortwaves rippling through the flow. There will still be the
potential for locally heavy rain totals and flash flooding, again
primarily across urban areas and burn scars. Temperatures will
remain below seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Thunderstorms will continue to impact much of southeast and south
central Colorado through 27/04Z. Later tonight, lingering showers
could persist through 27/06Z. Moist, upslope flow will result in
MVR and IFR ceilings at KCOS and KPUB. Stable airmass may limit
the extent of convection in the afternoon Thursday, but can't rule
out a few thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are more likely in the San
Luis Valley Thursday afternoon impacting the KALS airport.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Thursday for COZ072>089-093>099.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-271745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected across
the mountains and plains today, as deep monsoon moisture spreads
across the region. Storms look to spread south and east across
the immediate adjacent plains through the late afternoon and
evening hours and out across the far southeast plains through the
late evening hours and into early Thursday morning.

With abundant moisture in place, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with all storms, leading to the potential of flash
flooding across the area today, particularly on area burn scars
and over urban locations.

In addition, a few storms over the eastern plains could reach
severe limits during the afternoon, producing 1 inch diameter hail
and 60 mph winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday. Coverage of thunderstorms is then expected to diminish
some and be most likely across the higher terrain and adjacent
locations through the weekend and into the first part of next
week.

Risks with the storms will be lightning, small hail, and gusty
winds to 50 mph. Some storms could become marginally severe with
wind gusts to around 60 mph and quarter size hail. There will also
be a potential for flash flooding, especially Thursday and
Friday, and particularly across burn scars and urban areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely this afternoon and evening across much of southern Colorado.

23/23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
954 PM MDT WED JUL 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 NNW CRIPPLE CREEK     38.84N 105.25W
07/26/2017  M1.25 INCH       TELLER             CO   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MDT WED JUL 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW COLORADO SPRINGS   38.85N 104.85W
07/26/2017  M1.03 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1041 PM MDT WED JUL 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE FALCON             38.95N 104.59W
07/26/2017  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL OVER THE PAST 20 MINUTES.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1046 PM MDT WED JUL 26 2017

COZ094-099-270530-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
1046 PM MDT WED JUL 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BACA AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM MDT...

At 1045 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Kim, or 31 miles southwest of Springfield, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kim.

LAT...LON 3711 10350 3753 10320 3730 10282 3700 10305
      3700 10325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 326DEG 12KT 3722 10314

Hodanish

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 PM MDT WED JUL 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE MANITOU SPRINGS   38.87N 104.86W
07/26/2017  U1.42 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL FOR THE DATE. RAIN BEGAN EARLY
            THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

HO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1139 PM MDT WED JUL 26 2017

COZ099-270630-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
1139 PM MDT WED JUL 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTY UNTIL
1230 AM MDT...

At 1139 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Pritchett, or 20 miles southwest of Springfield,
moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Campo.

LAT...LON 3707 10304 3733 10297 3732 10232 3705 10231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 266DEG 25KT 3717 10283

Hodanish