Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
319 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017

Fairly similar pattern to yesterday in regards to moisture and CAPE
values across the area.  Weak subtle perturbations moving through
the upper ridge combined with surface heating has triggered another
round of thunderstorms over the mountains.  These will form a broken
line and move eastward into the adjacent I-25 corridor and southeast
plains...though without a front to help focus thunderstorms across
the plains this evening...thunderstorms are expected to become less
widespread as the move eastward and encounter less support and
perhaps a little bit of a cap.  Latest runs of the HRRR seem to be
progressively pushing convection farther out onto the plains.  Main
concern will be a flash flood threat for burn scars and across the
adjacent plains where soils have been saturated by recent heavy
rains. Secondary threat will be for a brief severe threat with hail
up to the size of quarters and localized wind gusts up to 60 mph.
There is a little better shear in the atmosphere (25-30 kts) but
still on the weak side of the spectrum...so thinking is for only a
marginal severe threat through 02-03z.

Thunderstorms should diminish as they move eastward and be largely
done by 06z as the move off into Kansas.  Tomorrow looks like a
repeat...though with less lift and more drying moving into the west.
 Activity should be a little less...but with moisture still pooling
in weak upslope flow...still can't rule out an isolated marginal
severe storm threat...and localized flash flood threat. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer as we start a warming/drying trend into
the end of the work week. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017

Thursday night and Friday

An upper level disturbance embedded in northwest flow east of the
ridge axis will move through southern Colorado Thursday evening.
Related spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will shift south of
the CO/NM border by midnight. There is also a low chance of a shower
or thunderstorm in the Pikes Peak region before midnight. Thursday
night low temperatures will only dip into the upper 50s to around 60
across the Plains and upper 30s to low 40s in the mountain valleys.
The upper level ridge will persist over Colorado on Friday, bringing
very warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions to southern
Colorado. Parts of the eastern plains will approach 100 degrees. A
weak disturbance in the upper level flow will bring a small chance
of an isolated thunderstorm along the dryline in far eastern
Colorado Friday afternoon/early evening. Line

Friday night through Wednesday

Friday night through Sunday...The upper ridge axis shifts to the
east, and west to southwest flow aloft pushes in across Colorado for
the weekend. Look for dry and very warm conditions, with temps
climbing into the 80s for the high valleys and upper 80s to near
100F for the eastern plains. Sat remains the hottest day of the
extended forecast period, and conditions across the plains may near
critical fire weather levels depending upon how strong winds become.

Monday and Tuesday...An upper trough and associated closed low
crosses the Great Basin and northern Rockies Mon and Tue, bringing
isolated to low end scattered showers and thunderstorms to the
central mts and areas north. Temps are forecast to cool through Tue,
with highs in the 70s for the high valleys both days. The plains are
forecast to be in the 80s to mid 90s for Mon, then mid 70s to mid
80s for Tue.

Wednesday...The upper trough passes to the east and westerly zonal
flow aloft then moves in across the region. The state dries out as
temps warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s for much of the forecast
area. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017

KPUB and KCOS will see the best of thunderstorms through the early
evening with most activity winding down by 02z.  Brief VFR cigs and
gusty erratic outflow winds up to 35 kts will be the primary concern
however cigs/vis could briefly drop into the MVFR category under the
heavier storms.  Otherwise conditions will be VFR overnight with
winds decreasing through the evening.  KALS will stay VFR with
erratic gusty winds from thunderstorms in the vicinity through early
evening.  Thursday will see a return of diurnally driven winds under
15 kts.  Thunderstorms will be more isolated with less of a chance
for TSRA at the terminals. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>