Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017

Tonight and Tuesday...Short term model consensus has convection
moving to the northeast during the evening with a line of weakening
convection moving across the southeast plains.  Currently, looking
like the strongest convection this evening will be along and
north of US 50. Will keep some PoPs overnight as another weak
disturbance may produce some showers, mostly along the southern
I25 corridor. On Tuesday, another disturbance will rotate
northward, east of the upper low over Arizona. Plenty of low level
moisture will be in place over the plains along with the middle
and upper level moisture. Main question will be the amount of
instability. SPC Day2 has a marginal risk, which is very
reasonable. Other main concern will be locally heavy rains on the
burn scars.  --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017

Tuesday night into Wednesday...Upper low moves eastward, passing
over northern New Mexico Wednesday evening. Wednesday could be
another day with strong storms and locally heavy rainfall. Models
hint at an axis of heavier rainfall developing along a boundary
somewhere over eastern Colorado. EC has the boundary further
north while the GFS keeps it over southeast Colorado.

Thursday...Upper low slowly moves east with some precipitation
wrapping around the west side of the upper low.  Currently, appears
precipitation amounts will be light with cool and stable airmass
over the region.

Friday through Monday...Upper ridge builds into the region Friday
through Monday. There will be some residual moisture for a few
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly over the higher
terrain. Otherwise, it will be mild and dry.  --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017

KCOS and KPUB...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue
through late evening, with the potential for gusty winds, hail and
heavy rain. Will have to watch for some low clouds overnight
depending on the amount of easterly flow, which will depend on
outflows from thunderstorms. The wet and active pattern continues
on Tuesday with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. The storms could produce gusty winds, hail and
heavy rain.

KALS...Scattered thunderstorms will occur into Monday evening and on
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds, brief downpours, and
small hail could accompany the storms.  --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PGW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1129 AM MDT Mon May 8 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-091730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1129 AM MDT Mon May 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe thunderstorms are possible today across the plains. The
best chance for strong to severe storms will be along and north of
highway 50. The primary threat will be large hail up to golf ball
size and wind gusts to 70 mph. There is also a slight chance of a
tornado, especially in northern El Paso county. The best chance
for severe storms will be late this afternoon and into the evening
hours.

Flash flooding on burn scars will also increase today as unstable
air moves into the region. If a storm moves over any of the many
burn scars over the region, then flash flooding will be possible.
The most susceptible burn scars are the Junkins burn scar and the
Hayden Pass burn scar.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

On Tuesday, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate over
the mountains early Tuesday afternoon, then drift eastward onto
the plains. Primary concerns will be lightning, strong winds,
large hail, heavy rain, burn scar flooding, and an isolated
tornado. Additionally, light snow accumulation will be possible
above 10000 feet.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level low moves closer to
the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area. A few
storms could become strong across the plains and heavy rainfall
will become more of a concern for burn scars. Primary risks are
lightning, small hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph and localized
flash flooding. Snow levels will remain around 10000 feet with
light to moderate accumulations possible across the higher
elevations.

High pressure will move across the area for Friday through Sunday.
However, there will be enough residual moisture for isolated
thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain each afternoon.
Primary concerns will be lightning, small hail and wind gusts up
to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely today and tonight across the region.

LW/Skelly

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
418 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             3 W PUEBLO WEST         38.31N 104.80W
05/08/2017  M0.88 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             1 S PUEBLO WEST         38.29N 104.76W
05/08/2017  M0.75 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             9 S WESTCLIFFE          38.00N 105.47W
05/08/2017  M1.00 INCH       CUSTER             CO   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
454 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

COZ072-078>080-087-082345-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
454 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HUERFANO AND CENTRAL
CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 453 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles east of Crestone Peak, or 41 miles west of Pueblo, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gardner, Red Wing, Silver Cliff, Westcliffe and Rosita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3773 10536 3795 10537 3816 10547 3823 10528
      3799 10516 3772 10515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 210DEG 10KT 3804 10533

lw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
508 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

COZ089-093-090000-
Crowley County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
508 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OTERO AND
SOUTHWESTERN CROWLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 508 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Manzanola, or 20 miles west of La Junta, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Ford, Fowler, Manzanola, Olney Springs and Crowley.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3782 10391 3793 10405 3826 10403 3810 10360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 210DEG 13KT 3796 10392

lw