Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Pueblo, CO

890 
WWUS55 KPUB 082229
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
429 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

COC089-082238-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-170508T2315Z/
Otero CO-
429 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3765 10379 3769 10395 3788 10395 3782 10355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 178DEG 18KT 3785 10386 

$$

lw

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017

Tonight and Tuesday...Short term model consensus has convection
moving to the northeast during the evening with a line of weakening
convection moving across the southeast plains.  Currently, looking
like the strongest convection this evening will be along and
north of US 50. Will keep some PoPs overnight as another weak
disturbance may produce some showers, mostly along the southern
I25 corridor. On Tuesday, another disturbance will rotate
northward, east of the upper low over Arizona. Plenty of low level
moisture will be in place over the plains along with the middle
and upper level moisture. Main question will be the amount of
instability. SPC Day2 has a marginal risk, which is very
reasonable. Other main concern will be locally heavy rains on the
burn scars.  --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017

Tuesday night into Wednesday...Upper low moves eastward, passing
over northern New Mexico Wednesday evening. Wednesday could be
another day with strong storms and locally heavy rainfall. Models
hint at an axis of heavier rainfall developing along a boundary
somewhere over eastern Colorado. EC has the boundary further
north while the GFS keeps it over southeast Colorado.

Thursday...Upper low slowly moves east with some precipitation
wrapping around the west side of the upper low.  Currently, appears
precipitation amounts will be light with cool and stable airmass
over the region.

Friday through Monday...Upper ridge builds into the region Friday
through Monday. There will be some residual moisture for a few
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly over the higher
terrain. Otherwise, it will be mild and dry.  --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017

KCOS and KPUB...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue
through late evening, with the potential for gusty winds, hail and
heavy rain. Will have to watch for some low clouds overnight
depending on the amount of easterly flow, which will depend on
outflows from thunderstorms. The wet and active pattern continues
on Tuesday with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. The storms could produce gusty winds, hail and
heavy rain.

KALS...Scattered thunderstorms will occur into Monday evening and on
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds, brief downpours, and
small hail could accompany the storms.  --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PGW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1129 AM MDT Mon May 8 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-091730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1129 AM MDT Mon May 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe thunderstorms are possible today across the plains. The
best chance for strong to severe storms will be along and north of
highway 50. The primary threat will be large hail up to golf ball
size and wind gusts to 70 mph. There is also a slight chance of a
tornado, especially in northern El Paso county. The best chance
for severe storms will be late this afternoon and into the evening
hours.

Flash flooding on burn scars will also increase today as unstable
air moves into the region. If a storm moves over any of the many
burn scars over the region, then flash flooding will be possible.
The most susceptible burn scars are the Junkins burn scar and the
Hayden Pass burn scar.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

On Tuesday, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate over
the mountains early Tuesday afternoon, then drift eastward onto
the plains. Primary concerns will be lightning, strong winds,
large hail, heavy rain, burn scar flooding, and an isolated
tornado. Additionally, light snow accumulation will be possible
above 10000 feet.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level low moves closer to
the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area. A few
storms could become strong across the plains and heavy rainfall
will become more of a concern for burn scars. Primary risks are
lightning, small hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph and localized
flash flooding. Snow levels will remain around 10000 feet with
light to moderate accumulations possible across the higher
elevations.

High pressure will move across the area for Friday through Sunday.
However, there will be enough residual moisture for isolated
thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain each afternoon.
Primary concerns will be lightning, small hail and wind gusts up
to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely today and tonight across the region.

LW/Skelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1259 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

COZ072-078>080-087-082000-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
1259 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HUERFANO...
SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER AND WESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MDT...

At 1258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gardner, or 40 miles northeast of Alamosa, moving north at 25 mph.

Dime size hail, wind gusts to 55 mph, locally heavy rain and
lightning strikes will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gardner, Red Wing, Silver Cliff and Rosita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also possible with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3768 10518 3769 10531 3817 10541 3813 10498
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 185DEG 24KT 3778 10523

LW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
210 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

COZ079-080-083-086-082130-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
210 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 200 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking developing showers and
thunderstorms over and near the Junkins and Beulah Hill burn scars.
These storms were moving to the north at 20 mph.

At this time, precipitation amounts during the previous hour over
the Junkins and Beulah Hill burn scars was generally under .05
inches.

A period of light to moderate rain at times is anticipated over the
Junkins and Beulah Hill burn scars over the next 2 hours with
precipitation amounts between .10 and .35 inches anticipated during
this time-frame.  In addition, wind gusts around 35 mph at times and
hail generally under 1/2 inch in diameter at times will be possible.

While precipitation rates at this time are not overly impressive,
streams in the burn scar may begin to rise with this projected
precipitation.

Locations impacted include...
The Junkins and Beulah Hill burn scars.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move away from recently burned areas.  If heavier rains develop,
they will be capable of creating rockslides, mudslides and debris
flows in steeper terrain, especially in and around recent burn scar
locations.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 10487 3806 10526 3825 10521 3826 10493
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 182DEG 14KT 3808 10517

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
227 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     HAIL             7 NE GARDNER            37.86N 105.09W
05/08/2017  M1.75 INCH       HUERFANO           CO   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             3 ENE BEULAH            38.09N 104.93W
05/08/2017  M1.75 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             1 SSE BEULAH            38.07N 104.98W
05/08/2017  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&