Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Pueblo, CO

517 
WWUS55 KPUB 292216
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
416 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

COC011-025-061-292300-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0132.000000T0000Z-170629T2300Z/
Kiowa CO-Crowley CO-Bent CO-
416 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT
FOR WESTERN KIOWA...NORTHEASTERN CROWLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL BENT
COUNTIES...

At 415 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Haswell, or 39
miles north of North La Junta, moving southeast at 35 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. 

Locations impacted include...
Eads, Haswell, Blue Lake, Arlington and Sweetwater Reservoir. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 10252 3813 10322 3851 10351 3853 10350
      3853 10317 3861 10317 3862 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 302DEG 29KT 3851 10325 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

kam

202 
WWUS55 KPUB 292252
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
452 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

COC025-292301-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0132.000000T0000Z-170629T2300Z/
Crowley CO-
452 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CROWLEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3817 10314 3852 10331 3853 10330 3853 10317
      3861 10317 3862 10306 3846 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 308DEG 23KT 3837 10303 

$$

COC011-061-292300-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0132.000000T0000Z-170629T2300Z/
Kiowa CO-Bent CO-
452 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT
FOR WESTERN KIOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL BENT COUNTIES...

At 451 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Haswell, or 30 miles northwest of Lamar, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Eads, Haswell and Sweetwater Reservoir. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 10314 3852 10331 3853 10330 3853 10317
      3861 10317 3862 10306 3846 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 308DEG 23KT 3837 10303 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

kam

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
352 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Currently...An isolated severe thunderstorm was nearing western
Kiowa county, with strong to severe thunderstorm(s) expected to
continue over the next few hours. Elsewhere, generally dry
conditions are anticipated with late afternoon temperatures
primarily in the 80s across the Plains. In addition, gusty winds
being noted over portions of the Continental Divide and the San
Luis Valley, allowing humidity values to meet critical values in
regards to fire weather.

Through this evening...models are in good agreement with regards to
severe thunderstorm potential through this evening.  Expect isolated
thunderstorms to continue over portions of Lincoln into Crowley
and Kiowa Counties into this evening. Hodographs favor right
splitting cells that should track southeast. CAPE and shear values
are favorable for rotating updrafts. This will help produce large
hail, likely to the size of golfballs. In addition, gusty winds
in excess of 60 mph are likely. There is a small tornado threat
through this evening. Initial development will have higher LCL
heights, but as cells move southeast they will encounter deeper
moisture and become better rooted in the boundary layer, which
will likely increase the tornado threat over Crowley and Kiowa
Counties.

Further south, not anticipating much in the way of convective
development.  There may be a few cells fire over the Eastern
Mountains which have a low probability of moving east into the I-25
corridor, but confidence is low in this occurring.

Out west, dry humidity values and gusty winds will continue to bring
high fire danger to the San Luis Valley, east into Fremont County
through this evening.

Tonight...westward moving outflow from the thunderstorms out east
will combine with a cold front dropping south from the north will
move across the Plains.  Expect thunderstorms out east to clear by
midnight.  As winds turn northeasterly across the Plains, with low
stratus developing through Friday morning.  With this stratus, there
may be areas of light rainfall, but coverage is not expected to
warrant much in the way of pops through Friday morning.

Friday...the next upper disturbance will pass across northern
Colorado into western Kansas through the day.  Cooler air behind the
cold front will bring much more stable conditions to the Plains
along with cooler afternoon highs.  Temperatures will reach into the
70s and 80s for highs.  Thunderstorms may be possible during the
afternoon hours, primarily over the Eastern Mountains, south into
the Raton Mesa where slightly better instability will be present.
This activity will move southeast into New Mexico through the late
afternoon hours.  The main threats will be nickel size hail and
outflow winds to near 50 mph. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active
meteorological conditions.

Not many meteorological revisions required during the longer
term with main longer term meteorological issues being pops,
thunderstorm intensity and temperatures.

It still appears that near to above seasonal temperatures in
combination with generally low-grade pops(although isolated
strong to possibly severe storms will be possible at times)
will be noted during the longer term.

Latest PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast model
soundings suggest that the northwesterly to zonal upper flow
from Friday evening into the weekend will transition to a upper
ridging pattern from later in the weekend into next Thursday.

In addition, varying degrees of southeastern Colorado surface
lee-side troughing is anticipated from Friday evening into
Thursday.

As touched upon earlier, near to above seasonal early July
temperatures are anticipated during the longer term with warmest
temperatures anticipated from late weekend into next Thursday with
maximum temperatures climbing into the 90s over many eastern
locations during this time-frame(including Independence Day).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Westerly winds
gusting to near 25 kts are expected through the early evening hours.

KCOS...A cold front will drop south into KCOS by this evening
with a northeasterly wind shift. This will likely lead to lowered
CIGS to near 2-4kft by Friday morning. Clearing conditions to VFR
are expected by Friday afternoon.

KPUB...Expect all thunderstorm activity to remain north of the
terminal through this evening. A cold front will arrive this
evening with northeasterly winds likely gusting in excess of 25
kts. Easterly flow later tonight will lead to lowered CIGS to near
4 kft through Friday morning. Expect clearing conditions into
Friday afternoon. Mozley &&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222>224.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-301730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1127 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and into this
evening across the plains. Severe thunderstorms will be capable of
hail up to the size of golfballs and wind gusts to 70 mph. The
best chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon will generally
be north a Fountain to Lamar line. An isolated tornado will also
be possible as the storms track to the east through this evening,
generally north of a La Junta to Lamar line.

Meteorological conditions for extreme fire behavior will occur
across the southwest mountains, the San Luis Valley and Fremont
county.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across
the area Friday through Wednesday. Most storms will be in the
afternoon and evening hours, with the main threats being
lightning and wind gusts up to 50 mph. Small hail and locally
heavy rainfall may also accompany the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible after 2 pm generally north of a Fountain to Lamar line.

88/88

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
101 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

COZ084-291945-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
101 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM MDT...

At 101 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peyton, or 23 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east at 5
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan, Ramah and Peyton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3892 10412 3900 10460 3913 10461 3913 10415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 250DEG 6KT 3907 10452

kam

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
146 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             CALHAN                  39.04N 104.30W
06/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&