Gale Watch 7, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

020 
WHUS71 KPHI 080758
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 AM EST WED FEB 8 2017


ANZ450>453-082100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-170208T2300Z/
/O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0007.170209T1100Z-170210T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0007.170209T1100Z-170210T1100Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
258 AM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT TO START, SHIFTING
  NORTHWEST MIDDAY THEN TO NORTH TONIGHT WITH A LULL IN WIND.
  NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KT EARLY THURSDAY SHIFTING
  NORTHWEST WITH SCATTERED GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KT BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
  
* SEAS...6 TO 9 FEET....MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 OR 5 FEET
  TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING RAPIDLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ454-455-082100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-170208T2300Z/
/O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0007.170209T1100Z-170210T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0007.170209T1100Z-170210T1100Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
258 AM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY TO 
  FENWICK ISLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT TO START THIS MORNING,
  SHIFTING NORTHWEST MIDDAY THEN TO NORTH TONIGHT WITH A LULL IN
  THE WIND. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTING 30 KT EARLY THURSDAY SHIFTING
  NORTHWEST WITH SCATTERED GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KT BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
  
* SEAS...5 TO 8 FEET....MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET
  TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING RAPIDLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-082100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-170208T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0007.170209T1100Z-170210T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0007.170209T1100Z-170210T1100Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
258 AM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...DELAWARE BAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK THEN
  DIMINISH AND SHIFT NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY. NORTH WINDS TONIGHT
  BECOME NORTHEAST GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WINDS
  BECOME NORTHWEST BY FORENOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.

* SEAS...2 TO 3 FEET THIS MORNING DOWN TO AROUND A FOOT THIS
  EVENING INCREASING TO 3 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHEST
  SEAS AT THE BAY ENTRANCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1246 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near Chicago this morning extends a warm front east
toward the Mid Atlantic states. The low will move northeast
into Quebec Wednesday, drawing the warm front north of our area
tonight. The cold frontal passage is to follow Wednesday
morning. A new area of low pressure will develop along the cold
front over southern Virginia Wednesday evening and intensify as
it departs the Mid Atlantic Coast midday Thursday. High
pressure follows for Friday. A warm front will develop over our
area late Friday and Saturday as low pressure organizes from the
Great Lakes into the central United States. The low should move
across the Ohio Valley on Sunday and into southeast Canada next
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 pm: Freezing rain is continuing but is winding down in
Sussex County, NJ, at this time as the main band of
precipitation moves to the northeast and temperatures slowly
creep upward above freezing. Spotty freezing drizzle may
continue at the highest elevations (near High Point) and in
Monroe County, PA, this afternoon, but think the main threat of
freezing precipitation will be done within the next hour. Thus,
will let the freezing rain advisory expire and handle with
short-term forecasts this afternoon.

Temperature and wind forecasts were updated to account for
current positioning of the warm front and for residual effects
from this morning's rainfall, which remains near an Atlantic
City to Aberdeen, MD, line. Primarily east winds lie to the
north of the front, with temperatures in the 30s and 40s,
whereas temperatures are in the low 60s to the south with
stronger south breezes. Not expecting much motion of the front
until this evening.

945 am: Temperatures are struggling to warm above freezing in
Sussex County, NJ, as a light northeasterly flow keeps the cold
near-surface air in place. With more rain expected in the next
few hours, decided to extend the freezing rain advisory here
through 1 pm. The rest of the advisory was cancelled, as
temperatures are now above freezing.

900 am: Adjusted the forecast grids to account for latest
radar/temperature trends. Generally increased PoPs this morning,
especially northwest of an Easton to Belmar line, as the main
band of rain moves into southeast PA and adjacent NE MD and
northern/central NJ during the next few hours. However, did
increase PoPs to at least slight chance in S DE and S NJ as
light showers are expected to develop on the nose of the
strongest lift associated with a vort max moving through the
Mid-Atlantic this morning. Precipitation is being aided by
differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the main
trough in the Midwest and via upper-level divergence associated
with the right entrance region of a jet streak exiting New
England this morning. Sustained isentropic ascent just north of
a surface warm front near the Mason-Dixon line will maintain
this precipitation as it rapidly progresses east through our CWA
the rest of the morning.

Temperatures are still hovering near freezing at the highest
elevations of Monroe and Sussex (NJ) Counties this morning, so
will leave the freezing rain advisory as is through expiration
time. However, think the overall threat is diminishing as warm
air advection is slowly winning the battle versus the near-
surface cold air, so no local extension to the advisory should
be necessary.

However, latest surface observations suggest a wedge of cold air
is developing in southeast PA and adjacent New Jersey this
morning. Temperatures are running colder than guidance in
general north of the front, and overall, think models are too
quick to scour this colder air out today. Went ahead and lowered
temperatures north of the front today, especially north of I-78,
and was a bit more pessimistic even in the warm sector, where
considerable cloudiness this morning will likely hinder more
rapid warming. Still think near-record temperatures are likely
south of the front.

For the 630 AM Update, adjusted the PoPs to better capture
exiting batch of rain/freezing rain. This appears to have been
tied to a warm air advection burst along with a weak short wave.
Some additional rain will develop, however the main band of
rain is to our west which will overspread the northern and
western areas through late morning. It appears that some light
icing has occurred in portions of the advisory area, and perhaps
some spotty light icing in some nearby counties. Temperatures
have come up some along with dew points. We will leave the
advisory as is for now. Some elevated instability has been noted
into western Pennsylvania with some lightning. This appears to
remain to our west. The warm sector is into portions of our
southern zones with temperatures into the 50s. Temperature and
dew point grids were adjusted to reflect trends.

Otherwise, an upper-level trough will slide across the Midwest
into the Great Lakes region during today. There is also a weak
short wave trough sliding across the southern states. It is the
northern feature that will generally drive strengthening surface
low pressure up across the Great Lakes region later today. It
is this surface low that will have an influence on our local
weather.

Downstream warm air advection will be maintained today, driven
partially by a low-level jet from the southwest. This will also
strengthen a surface warm front as it gradually lifts northward by
late in the day. An examination of the forecast soundings indicate a
much stronger warm front near 925 MB with temperatures across about
the southern half of the forecast area surging to near +15C by late
afternoon. This will lead to rounds of isentropic lift, one
initially early this morning centered near our northwestern zones
then a second round later this morning from about the I-95 corridor
on north and west. The initial round looks weaker as it will
initially be running into drier air in the lower levels, however
there will also be lingering cold air at the surface in the far
northwest zones. It will be a race between light precipitation and
how quick the temperatures respond. Looks like some light icing
potential still there, and therefore we will continue the Freezing
Rain Advisory for now. Mesonet obs indicate temperatures at or below
freezing in many places just outside of the advisory zones, however
some increase is anticipated toward daybreak. Temperatures are
expected to increase everywhere into the afternoon hours.

Farther south, the warm sector is expected to be in place by later
this afternoon. Not much precipitation is anticipated across the
south today, other than some sprinkles or a few showers. A
sharpening temperature gradient will occur from south to north
across our area with 60+ degree readings from about Philadelphia on
southward. Some thinning of the clouds should occur this afternoon
especially across the southern areas, with lower clouds more
dominant across the north. We went with a continuity/NAM blend
overall for high temperatures. Near record high temperatures
for portions of Delmarva this afternoon (i.e. Georgetown, DE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
An upper-level trough will lift across the Great Lakes region and
into Canada tonight, with strong short wave energy with it. This
will drive strengthening low pressure into Canada tonight with a
strong cold front approaching our western zones toward daybreak. Our
region will be within the warm sector tonight as a warm front is
forecast to be shifting north of our forecast area. This will result
in a southerly flow of milder air, although some cooler low-level
air may still be stuck in the far northern zones. A 40-50 knot
southwesterly low-level jet will track across mostly our southern
and eastern areas through the night, and this should keep these
areas milder.

The much milder air combined with the strong low-level jet should
keep an inversion in place overall. This may trap moisture under it
and result in lower clouds redeveloping through the night. Some fog
cannot be ruled out especially across the interior where there
should be less surface wind plus being more removed from the strong
low-level jet. Some energy moving through well ahead of the cold
front should touch off some showers, with perhaps a band of showers
arriving from the west. The highest PoPs are generally across the
northwestern zones closer to the better incoming lift.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**Potential for the heaviest snowfall of the season so far for
 the I95 and I78 corridors 05z-21z Thursday**

500 MB: A strengthening short wave will cross the mid Atlantic
states Thursday, then strong height rises follow over the
weekend (strong westerly flow), then northern stream short waves
from Canada begin carving out a cold trough in eastern Canada
early next week. A fly in the ointment early next week will be a
leftover low over the desert southwest that may yet interact
play a role in our weather early next week.

Temperatures: February as a whole for the first 6 days is
generally averaging above normal. Daily averages will be 13 to
18 degrees above normal Wednesday, near or slightly below
normal Thursday, 5 to 8 degrees below normal Friday, slightly
above Saturday and around 5 above Sunday and Monday.

Forecast basis: Unless otherwise noted. Since we did not have
any 00z/7 GFS/NAM MOS guidance avbl for GFE we used the previous
Mount Holly fcst for Wednesday, and then the same for Wed night-
Thu night but we did blend that fcst with the 2m temps fm the
00z/7 ECMWF. Thereafter, we used the 05z/7 WPC guidance Friday
-Monday, at times blended with the 00z/7 ECMWF 18z 2m temperatures.

Hazards: None yet but contemplated a watch. But lack of model
consensus/forecaster confidence resulted in waiting another
forecast period before reconsidering a WATCH for the period 05z
/Thursday-21z Thursday. Timing of the snow/temperatures dropping
below freezing with the Thursday morning commute argues for
probable widespread Thursday morning delays, even if this not a
5 to 7 inch 12 hour warning event.

Confidence: Above average with heavier reliance on the
ECMWF/UKMET and the the GEFS 500mb trends.

Wednesday...Near record warmth and generally dry with considerable
morning cloudiness giving way to partial sunshine during the
afternoon. southwest wind during the morning shifting west northwest
midday...gusts 20, possibly 25 mph for a time. MOSguide sky
cover. Confidence on temps is below average due to a lack of
ability to populate with the actual 00z/7 MOS guidance. So we
remained close to ydys Mount Holly fcst. Max temps 15 to 20
degrees above normal.

Wednesday night...Becoming cloudy. Rain develops after midnight
south two thirds but snow develops north. Significant widespread
slippery conditions by daybreak Thursday as the r/snow transition
arrives I95 corridor in the 9z-12z time frame. A short period
of sleet may accompany the change but sleet is not the main
story. Light north wind turns northeast gusts 20 to 25 mph by
morning.

Thursday...Snow north and rain south changing to snow.  Amounts
greatest I-78 region north and probably the largest snowfall of the
winter so far in parts of eastern Pa and northern NJ. cold. Snowfall
rates of an inch an hour possible during the morning in the
I78-180 region. As for the ending time...uncertainty. For now we
say snow ends south midday. Elsewhere in the north snow tapers
to flurries anytime early afternoon to sunset. Wind turns north
northwest and gusts 20-30 mph in the afternoon. Temperatures
steady or falling from 7am readings (calendar day highs at 1201AM).

We stuck close to the previous 330 PM Monday snow forecast...adding
a bit of snow to PHL/ACY and Delmarva. Confidence on snow
amounts is less than average...but there is high confidence in a
significant slippery winter weather event Thursday morning.

Generally, we are anticipating 2 to 5 inches in eastern Pennsylvania
and New Jersey ranging down to an inch or less lower Delmarva.

Thursday night...Clearing except considerable cloudiness north.
Brisk. northwest wind gust 20-30 mph.

Friday...Mostly Sunny.

Friday night...waa mid deck ovc. Chance of snow north. No time
to express much detail or confidence.

Saturday...Partly sunny, except possible light pcpn north.
Again no time to detail or express much confidence.

Sunday...Considerable clouds. periods of rain or showers,
especially north. This situation needs to be monitored for a
more wintry scenario in future forecasts.

Monday...Partly Sunny.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

For the 18Z TAFs...expect gradually improving conditions this
afternoon at the TAF sites as the main precipitation band moves
northeast of the area. However, spottier showers continue
north of a warm front, currently positioned generally just
south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Expect light east/northeast
winds to the north of the front with somewhat stronger SSW winds
to the south. Front should move little through sunset but will
progress northward overnight. Ceilings will deteriorate again
tonight as another band of light showers moves through from 05Z-
10Z. MVFR to IFR conditions are likely in areas of fog and in
proximity to showers, especially at KABE, KRDG, and KTTN.

Outlook...
Wednesday...Mainly VFR (chance MVFR conds early, especially if
leftover showers). Small chc of a late aftn shower south.
Southwest wind shifts west to northwest midday and gusty 20 kt.

Wednesday night late (after 05z/9) through 17z Thursday...
Conditions deteriorating into the IFR category in rain changing
to snow. Slippery pavements expected most TAF sites starting
first KRDG/KABE around 08z-09z Thursday and reaching PHL/ILG
around 12-14/9. KMIV and KACY around 14-16z. light north wind
Wednesday evening becoming northeast gusty 20-25 kt early Thu
morning.

Thursday afternoon...Conditions gradually improving to VFR by
21z from southwest to northeast. northwest wind gusty 25 to 30
kt.

Thursday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Northwest wind
gusty 20-25 kt Thursday night...then westerly Friday and gusty
to 20 kt.

Friday night and Saturday...VFR cigs but chance of a period of
MFVR snow vcnty KABE/KRDG Friday night. south to southwest wind.

&&

.MARINE...
1230 pm: Amended winds to match current observations. Seas are
already reaching advisory criteria in the coastal waters and as
a warm front lifts northward tonight, wind speeds/gusts should
increase. Current small craft advisory unchanged.

A strengthening area of low pressure will track across the Great
Lakes later today and into Canada tonight. This will pull a warm
front northward across our area today into tonight with a low-level
jet moving through for a time today, then a stronger one moves
through tonight. The airmass will be modifying as the warm sector
moves northward, however mixing should still increase enough to
allow wind gusts to reach 25-30 knots through tonight. The strongest
winds look to occur later this afternoon and tonight from south to
north. The increasing southerly flow will also build the seas quite
a bit through tonight. No changes were made to the Small Craft
Advisory, which starts from south to north later this morning to
midday (early this evening for Delaware Bay).

Outlook...
Wednesday...SCA for our ocean waters off Delaware until noon on
Wednesday, and for our waters off New Jersey until 6:00 PM
Wednesday.

Wednesday night...Redeveloping north or northeast SCA late?

Thursday...At a minimum, a strong SCA with northeast winds gusty 25-
35 kt Thursday morning turning north northwest midday Thursday and
widespread frequent wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots Thursday afternoon
and night. A Gale warning may be needed for portions of the area,
especially DE BAY and adjacent DE and S NJ Atlantic waters from
roughly 17z Thu-through Thu night. Freezing spray anticipated by Thu
night.

Friday...Leftover SCA with winds trending west and southwest during
the afternoon and gusty 20 kt.

Friday night..SCA may be needed for a southwest flow waa pattern
with leftover boundary layer instability from the cold air that
arrived Thursday and Thursday night.

Saturday...No marine headlines are anticipated at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
For today, February 7th (corrected in our records; our database
was incorrect), GED's record high temperatures is 69 in 2008.

For Wednesday, temperatures may reach or exceed record highs in
several areas with highs in the 50's across northern New Jersey
and northeast Pennsylvania. Highs further south are forecast to
be in the 60's.

Here are the past records for 2/8. Philadelphia and Trenton are
projected to break the record highs. Wilmington,Trenton and
Georgetown have the best chance to approach but not exceed
record highs.

Altantic City...69 in 1965
Philadelphia....63 in 1925
Wilmington......66 in 1965
Allentown.......59 in 1965
Trenton.........62 in 1933
Georgetown......69 in 1965
Reading.........63 in 1965
Mount Pocono....48 in 2000

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NJZ001.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ450>453.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ454-455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ430-431.

&&

Synopsis...Drag
Near Term...CMS/Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...Drag
Aviation...CMS/Drag/Gorse
Marine...CMS/Drag/Gorse
Climate...Drag/Gaines

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
428 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-062-080930-
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON-
428 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CAUSING TRAVEL DELAYS
THURSDAY MORNING...ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 2PM. PRESENTLY, IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BUT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE SNOW
TOTAL FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE, EXCEPT TO SAY SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS
LIKELY WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF PLOWABLE AMOUNTS.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ008-009-PAZ061-105-080930-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-LEHIGH-UPPER BUCKS-
428 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF FREEZING RAIN UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CAUSING TRAVEL DELAYS
THURSDAY MORNING...ROUGHLY 2 AM TO 2PM. PRESENTLY, IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BUT POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE, EXCEPT TO SAY SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS LIKELY
WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF PLOWABLE AMOUNTS.

A LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ010-012>022-025>027-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-106-
080930-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
428 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CAUSING TRAVEL DELAYS
THURSDAY MORNING...ROUGHLY 5 AM TO 5 PM. PRESENTLY, IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BUT POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE, EXCEPT TO SAY SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS LIKELY
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PLOWABLE AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ023-024-080930-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
428 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW MID AND LATE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE UNDER 2 INCHES. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE SNOW TOTAL FORECAST
IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-080930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
428 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR DELAWARE BAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1210 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     FREEZING RAIN    SUSSEX AIRPORT          41.20N  74.62W
02/07/2017  M0.02 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1700194

GAINES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
215 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

NJZ001-PAZ055-072200-
Sussex-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton and Stroudsburg
215 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY AND
MONROE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...

Occasional light rain and drizzle will continue through the rest
of the afternoon along the I-80 corridor. With temperatures
hovering around freezing at a few colder spots in Monroe County,
Pennsylvania and Sussex County, New Jersey, spotty freezing rain
and freezing drizzle will continue. Additional light icing amounts
up to a few hundredths of an inch are possible in these colder
locales through 5 PM.

Use caution if traveling through the area this afternoon. Untreated
secondary roads, bridges and overpasses are most prone to icing.
Slow down and keep a safe distance between you and the vehicle
ahead of you in case you encounter an icy patch.

JRK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
234 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 AM     FREEZING RAIN    WANTAGE                 41.24N  74.55W
02/07/2017  M0.00 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM     FREEZING RAIN    BLAIRSTOWN              40.98N  74.96W
02/07/2017  E0.00 INCH       WARREN             NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

1000 AM     FREEZING RAIN    BYRAM                   40.42N  75.06W
02/07/2017  E0.00 INCH       HUNTERDON          NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

1000 AM     FREEZING RAIN    NEWTON                  41.05N  74.75W
02/07/2017  E0.00 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

0201 PM     FREEZING RAIN    POCONO MOUNTAINS AIRPOR 41.14N  75.38W
02/07/2017  M0.03 INCH       MONROE             PA   ASOS

            RADIAL MEASUREMENT

0225 PM     FREEZING RAIN    SUSSEX AIRPORT          41.20N  74.62W
02/07/2017  M0.05 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   ASOS

            RADIAL AMOUNT

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1700195
EVENT NUMBER PHI1700196
EVENT NUMBER PHI1700197
EVENT NUMBER PHI1700198
EVENT NUMBER PHI1700199
EVENT NUMBER PHI1700200

JRK