Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
154 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Near term convective (svr) environment continues, with best
threat area appearing now to be shifting to Lakes/eastward across
southern Pennryile, where best dew point surge/area of some
breaks/highest MU Capes coexist. Area of ongoing convection has
picked up steam, from around 32Kts earlier today to ongoing around
40Kts now, and this is anticipated as upper jet is moving in.
This should propel convection thru southern Ky fairly quickly,
with HRRR modeling the ongoing activity reasonably well, and
taking bulk of its pcpn thru the area/into scntl Ky/cntl Tn by
23Z. Will go near certainty Pops til then, and cut into them
drastically afterwards. May maintain upper trof/instability shower
chance or slight chance, esp east, overnight however.

After tonight, Tuesday offers a pause, with the upper ridge
nudging across the mid Mississippi/Tennessee valleys. Then another
robust storm system takes shape and ejects across the southern
Plains, moving its convection into the lower and mid Mississippi
valleys Wed night-Thursday, with maybe some warm sector/advection
chances showing up earlier, esp west, during the day Wed. A
similar environment is encountered so we are outlooked SWODY3
Marginal to Slight risk for late Wed night into Thursday morning,
with the 15% bubbling across western Ky Thursday, not too
dissimilar to Today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Models are in better agreement on the track of our late week surface
low, taking it from southwest Missouri into central Illinois then
into the southern Great Lakes region.  Both the ECMWF and GFS have
it around the St. Louis area around 00z Friday, with the Canadian
about 6 hours slower.  This track and general timing has the
associated cold front moving across the PAH forecast area late
Thursday into Thursday night.  Along and ahead of the front, models
produce widespread precipitation Thursday into Thursday night, and
went with likely to categorical pops for showers.  Based on the
expected track of the low, we should have better instability across
our region, so increased thunderstorm possibilities from slight
chance to chance during the day Thursday, with slight chances into
Thursday evening.  Lingered some slight chances of thunder in our
eastern counties late Thursday night until the front moves east of
our area. Showers will taper off from west to east on Friday.

Surface high pressure centered north of the PAH forecast area and a
weak upper level ridge over the lower and middle Mississippi Valley
will give us dry conditions Friday night into at least early
Saturday night.  Models show an upper low moving toward the region
on Sunday and included some chances for showers.

South winds ahead of the cold front will give us unseasonably warm
temperatures Thursday into Thursday night.  Cooler air will filter
in behind the front, and daytime highs will return to near seasonal
for Friday through Sunday, with overnight lows still a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Convective chances with associated restrictions should be moving
out by next issuance time, until then, strong storms are possible,
esp KPAH/KOWB. Overnight, parent upper trof moving overhead will
keep unsettled MVFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS may occur at times as
well. Tmrw should see generally improving flight conditions,
though CIGS may be maintained early, until diurnal heating can
erode/lift cloud bases to VFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
254 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
254 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe storms remain possible, mainly for western Kentucky, this
afternoon and early evening. Refer to the Watches and Warnings in
effect for details. Heavy rain and lightning are also possible
with storms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday through Friday. The best
chance of storms, including strong or potentially severe storms,
is late Wednesday night into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Timely spotter reports of severe weather are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
159 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     HAIL             KIRKSEY                 36.68N 88.43W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   PUBLIC

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             NEW CONCORD             36.60N 88.07W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
203 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     HAIL             AURORA                  36.78N 88.14W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
211 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             3 ENE MADISONVILLE      37.35N 87.45W
03/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       HOPKINS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
246 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             HAMLIN                  36.60N 88.08W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   PUBLIC

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
251 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     HAIL             HOPKINSVILLE            36.85N 87.49W
03/27/2017  E0.75 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED AT CHRISTIAN COUNTY HIGH SCHOOL

&&

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