Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Paducah, KY

950 
WWUS53 KPAH 271929
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
229 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

KYC221-271945-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-170327T1945Z/
Trigg KY-
229 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR TRIGG COUNTY...

At 228 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Cadiz to 11 miles north of Big Rock, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. Winds have gusted to 49 mph near Lake 
         Barkely State Park as the storms moved through.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Cadiz, Canton, Rockcastle and Linton. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

These storms are producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a
sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3667 8786 3668 8797 3676 8797
      3690 8803 3691 8801 3696 8790 3695 8786
      3697 8777 3700 8773 3696 8766 3688 8767
      3674 8767 3664 8770 3663 8785
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 245DEG 35KT 3694 8780 3674 8774 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ps

043 
WWUS53 KPAH 271942
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
242 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

KYC221-271952-
/O.EXP.KPAH.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-170327T1945Z/
Trigg KY-
242 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TRIGG COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
245 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central and western Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3667 8786 3668 8797 3676 8797
      3690 8803 3691 8801 3696 8790 3695 8786
      3697 8777 3700 8773 3696 8766 3688 8767
      3674 8767 3664 8770 3663 8785
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 234DEG 31KT 3701 8768 3681 8763 

$$

ps

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
154 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Near term convective (svr) environment continues, with best
threat area appearing now to be shifting to Lakes/eastward across
southern Pennryile, where best dew point surge/area of some
breaks/highest MU Capes coexist. Area of ongoing convection has
picked up steam, from around 32Kts earlier today to ongoing around
40Kts now, and this is anticipated as upper jet is moving in.
This should propel convection thru southern Ky fairly quickly,
with HRRR modeling the ongoing activity reasonably well, and
taking bulk of its pcpn thru the area/into scntl Ky/cntl Tn by
23Z. Will go near certainty Pops til then, and cut into them
drastically afterwards. May maintain upper trof/instability shower
chance or slight chance, esp east, overnight however.

After tonight, Tuesday offers a pause, with the upper ridge
nudging across the mid Mississippi/Tennessee valleys. Then another
robust storm system takes shape and ejects across the southern
Plains, moving its convection into the lower and mid Mississippi
valleys Wed night-Thursday, with maybe some warm sector/advection
chances showing up earlier, esp west, during the day Wed. A
similar environment is encountered so we are outlooked SWODY3
Marginal to Slight risk for late Wed night into Thursday morning,
with the 15% bubbling across western Ky Thursday, not too
dissimilar to Today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Models are in better agreement on the track of our late week surface
low, taking it from southwest Missouri into central Illinois then
into the southern Great Lakes region.  Both the ECMWF and GFS have
it around the St. Louis area around 00z Friday, with the Canadian
about 6 hours slower.  This track and general timing has the
associated cold front moving across the PAH forecast area late
Thursday into Thursday night.  Along and ahead of the front, models
produce widespread precipitation Thursday into Thursday night, and
went with likely to categorical pops for showers.  Based on the
expected track of the low, we should have better instability across
our region, so increased thunderstorm possibilities from slight
chance to chance during the day Thursday, with slight chances into
Thursday evening.  Lingered some slight chances of thunder in our
eastern counties late Thursday night until the front moves east of
our area. Showers will taper off from west to east on Friday.

Surface high pressure centered north of the PAH forecast area and a
weak upper level ridge over the lower and middle Mississippi Valley
will give us dry conditions Friday night into at least early
Saturday night.  Models show an upper low moving toward the region
on Sunday and included some chances for showers.

South winds ahead of the cold front will give us unseasonably warm
temperatures Thursday into Thursday night.  Cooler air will filter
in behind the front, and daytime highs will return to near seasonal
for Friday through Sunday, with overnight lows still a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Convective chances with associated restrictions should be moving
out by next issuance time, until then, strong storms are possible,
esp KPAH/KOWB. Overnight, parent upper trof moving overhead will
keep unsettled MVFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS may occur at times as
well. Tmrw should see generally improving flight conditions,
though CIGS may be maintained early, until diurnal heating can
erode/lift cloud bases to VFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
320 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
320 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible over all or part of the outlook area
today and tonight. A few storms may become severe mainly this
afternoon and evening with damaging winds and large hail being the
primary hazards. A tornado or two is not out of the question.
Otherwise locally heavy downpours and lightning will be the
primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible over all or part of the outlook area
Wednesday night, Thursday, and Thursday night. Widespread severe
weather is not expected at this time. Locally heavy downpours and
lightning will be the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be required this afternoon and
evening.

JP/RST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
111 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             1 E CUBA                36.56N 88.62W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       GRAVES             KY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
123 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     HAIL             COLDWATER               36.65N 88.46W
03/27/2017  M1.25 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
134 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             1 N MURRAY              36.63N 88.32W
03/27/2017  M1.00 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             2 NE SEDALIA            36.66N 88.58W
03/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       GRAVES             KY   PUBLIC

            IN THE COMMUNITY OF FARMINGTON

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 PM     HAIL             ALMO                    36.69N 88.28W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
144 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     HAIL             KIRKSEY                 36.68N 88.43W
03/27/2017  E1.25 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL