Severe Thunderstorm Warning 519, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
728 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Made adjustments to rain chances and sky cover tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight, mainly before
1 AM across northern Oklahoma.

A cluster of severe storms has already brought large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall to northwestern
Oklahoma. This cluster will generally move into southern Kansas in
the next few hours. Otherwise, it appears chances for severe
storms in western Oklahoma are decreasing daytime heating from
abundant cloud cover and the sun getting lower on the horizon
which will allow for CINH to increase.

Another cluster of severe storms with large hail, damaging winds,
and heavy rainfall near Childress, Texas continues to slowly
drift south/southeast and may impact far western north Texas, west
of a Quanah to Seymour line in the next 3 hours.

The highest potential for severe storms appears to be with a large
line of storms currently in southern Kansas which will move into
north central and northeastern Oklahoma between 9 pm and midnight.
Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main hazard along with heavy
rainfall. Some large hail may be possible ad well. Not sure how
far south and southeast this line of storms will go. This
depends on the amount of CINH south of the line as well as
strength of developing low level cold pool. Latest radar trends
have been suggesting that this line may be diving more southward
compared to eastward which could bring severe storms into the
Oklahoma City area towards midnight, as well as Ada and Pauls
Valley areas towards 2 am. Confidence in this solution remains
low. Will continue to monitor.

Products will be updated shortly.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

AVIATION...
Convection to the west and north of the area this evening and
potentially through part of the overnight across the north. This is
most likely to impact GAG/WWR early this evening and then PNC into
the overnight. Will keep a mention at all these sites, with chances
too low elsewhere. Have maintained VFR conditions throughout the
forecast period. Winds will be difficult with potential multiple
outflow boundaries that may move across the area, but expect mainly
south/southeast winds that will diminish early this evening and then
continue through the period.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Two areas of severe convection have already formed...more or less
as planned. The first is currently a broken line of storms in the
eastern Texas Panhandle. These storms are expected to drift
slowly east, then weaken as they cross far western Oklahoma. The
second area of severe storms is over central Kansas, and has all
appearances of becoming a mesoscale convective system (MCS). This
MCS will move southeast later this afternoon and evening, reaching
north-central Oklahoma approximately 7 pm, then continue toward
the southeast. It will move into less-favorable conditions, and
should start to disintegrate during the late evening or overnight.
Exactly how far it will survive is uncertain.

There may be a few storms Friday in the still-unstable
atmosphere, but as the upper-level ridge over the southwestern
United States begins to expand into the southern Plains, that
should provide more and more inhibition. By Saturday, no storms
are expected, and temperatures will be quite hot. Combining the
heat with the expected humidity, we will likely see heat indices
above 105 over much of our forecast area. A Heat Advisory will
probably be needed at least for north-central Oklahoma.

A noticable cold front will arrive overnight Saturday into Sunday
morning as a significant shortwave trough passes through the
upper-level flow over the central Plains. The cold front will
bring another chance for thunderstorms, and temperatures will
drop back closer to the average for mid-June.

The remainder of the forecast consists of temperatures a few
degrees above average...and low chances for rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  96  76  98 /  20  10  10   0
Hobart OK         71  98  75 102 /  20   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  99  76 101 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  97  70 102 /  30  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     70  96  76  99 /  70  10  20   0
Durant OK         74  96  75  96 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

17/30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
838 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-170145-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
838 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorm Outlook...
There is a Moderate risk of severe thunderstorms across far north
central Oklahoma. Enhanced, Slight, and Marginal risks for severe
thunderstorms surround the Moderate Risk.

Location...
The Moderate Risk is located along and north of a line from near
the Great Salt Plains Lake to Lamont to Ponca City. The Enhanced
Risk is located along and north of a line from Alva to Enid to
Stillwater. The Slight Risk area is northeast of a Buffalo to
Clinton to Pauls Valley to Atoka line. Another Slight Risk area is
west of a Hollis to Benjamin, Texas line.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe weather will be from now through
3 AM tonight.

Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph...
Hail up to the size of golf balls...

Discussion...
A line of severe storms will move south and southeast into north
central and northeastern Oklahoma this evening, and perhaps
central and southeast Oklahoma later tonight. The primary hazard
with the line of storms is damaging wind gusts. Large hail and
isolated flash flooding are possible as well due to locally heavy
rainfall. There is much uncertainty on how far south and west the
line of storms moves tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue mainly before 11 pm tonight
across western Oklahoma and far western north Texas. Large hail is
main hazard with these storms.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations
tonight.

.Heavy Rainfall/Flooding...
Localized areas of excessive rainfall from thunderstorms may
cause flash flooding tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will return Friday night to northern
Oklahoma, Saturday night across northeastern Oklahoma, and
continue Sunday into Monday across much of Oklahoma and western
north Texas. A few strong to severe storms will be possible.

.Heat...
Widespread heat indices from around 100 to 108 degrees are
expected Friday and Saturday during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Be sure to drink plenty of water and take
frequent breaks when working or playing outside.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Kurtz/MBS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
814 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW HOPETON           36.71N 98.72W
06/15/2017  M57 MPH          WOODS              OK   MESONET

            HEAT BURST AT ALVA SITE.

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
832 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

TXZ083>086-160215-
Wichita TX-Wilbarger TX-Foard TX-Hardeman TX-
832 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Wichita...
Wilbarger...Foard and southern Hardeman Counties Until 915 PM CDT...

AT 830 PM CDT, an area of light rain and virga will be capable of
producing wind gusts to near 50 mph from near Quanah and Crowell
east to Vernon and Electra over the next hour.

LAT...LON 3437 9996 3406 9867 3384 9871 3384 9997
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 286DEG 26KT 3418 9991 3398 9879

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
904 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

TXZ088-160230-
Baylor TX-
904 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Baylor County Until 930
PM CDT...

AT 901 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles north of Red
Springs, moving southeast at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 9947 3363 9948 3382 9943 3374 9903
      3345 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 296DEG 31KT 3369 9938

30