Severe Thunderstorm Warning 518, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
728 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Made adjustments to rain chances and sky cover tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight, mainly before
1 AM across northern Oklahoma.

A cluster of severe storms has already brought large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall to northwestern
Oklahoma. This cluster will generally move into southern Kansas in
the next few hours. Otherwise, it appears chances for severe
storms in western Oklahoma are decreasing daytime heating from
abundant cloud cover and the sun getting lower on the horizon
which will allow for CINH to increase.

Another cluster of severe storms with large hail, damaging winds,
and heavy rainfall near Childress, Texas continues to slowly
drift south/southeast and may impact far western north Texas, west
of a Quanah to Seymour line in the next 3 hours.

The highest potential for severe storms appears to be with a large
line of storms currently in southern Kansas which will move into
north central and northeastern Oklahoma between 9 pm and midnight.
Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main hazard along with heavy
rainfall. Some large hail may be possible ad well. Not sure how
far south and southeast this line of storms will go. This
depends on the amount of CINH south of the line as well as
strength of developing low level cold pool. Latest radar trends
have been suggesting that this line may be diving more southward
compared to eastward which could bring severe storms into the
Oklahoma City area towards midnight, as well as Ada and Pauls
Valley areas towards 2 am. Confidence in this solution remains
low. Will continue to monitor.

Products will be updated shortly.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

AVIATION...
Convection to the west and north of the area this evening and
potentially through part of the overnight across the north. This is
most likely to impact GAG/WWR early this evening and then PNC into
the overnight. Will keep a mention at all these sites, with chances
too low elsewhere. Have maintained VFR conditions throughout the
forecast period. Winds will be difficult with potential multiple
outflow boundaries that may move across the area, but expect mainly
south/southeast winds that will diminish early this evening and then
continue through the period.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Two areas of severe convection have already formed...more or less
as planned. The first is currently a broken line of storms in the
eastern Texas Panhandle. These storms are expected to drift
slowly east, then weaken as they cross far western Oklahoma. The
second area of severe storms is over central Kansas, and has all
appearances of becoming a mesoscale convective system (MCS). This
MCS will move southeast later this afternoon and evening, reaching
north-central Oklahoma approximately 7 pm, then continue toward
the southeast. It will move into less-favorable conditions, and
should start to disintegrate during the late evening or overnight.
Exactly how far it will survive is uncertain.

There may be a few storms Friday in the still-unstable
atmosphere, but as the upper-level ridge over the southwestern
United States begins to expand into the southern Plains, that
should provide more and more inhibition. By Saturday, no storms
are expected, and temperatures will be quite hot. Combining the
heat with the expected humidity, we will likely see heat indices
above 105 over much of our forecast area. A Heat Advisory will
probably be needed at least for north-central Oklahoma.

A noticable cold front will arrive overnight Saturday into Sunday
morning as a significant shortwave trough passes through the
upper-level flow over the central Plains. The cold front will
bring another chance for thunderstorms, and temperatures will
drop back closer to the average for mid-June.

The remainder of the forecast consists of temperatures a few
degrees above average...and low chances for rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  96  76  98 /  20  10  10   0
Hobart OK         71  98  75 102 /  20   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  99  76 101 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  97  70 102 /  30  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     70  96  76  99 /  70  10  20   0
Durant OK         74  96  75  96 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

17/30

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