Severe Thunderstorm Warning 486, NWS Norman, OK

701 
WWUS54 KOUN 280612
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
112 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

OKC019-067-085-280630-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0486.000000T0000Z-170528T0630Z/
Jefferson OK-Love OK-Carter OK-
112 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...LOVE AND SOUTHERN CARTER COUNTIES...

At 111 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles west of Marietta to 4 miles southeast of Grady
moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Ardmore, Lone Grove, Dickson, Leon, Overbrook, Grady, Rubottom,
Burneyville, Oscar, Lake Murray, Courtney and Petersburg.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 18 and 32.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 9744 3391 9747 3390 9759 3395 9759
      3399 9767 3394 9773 3393 9776 3386 9783
      3386 9789 3411 9768 3420 9701 3390 9718
      3391 9724 3386 9726 3389 9731 3385 9733
      3388 9733 3382 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 126DEG 6KT 3395 9721 3399 9760 3386 9769 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

03

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
555 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The May 28-29, 2017 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally expect VFR conditions to continue at most terminals
through the TAF period. A cold front continues to shift southward
this evening and has already passed through KGAG/KWWR/KPNC/KCSM.
The cold front will pass through all terminals tonight. As the
cold front shifts southward, thunderstorms could impact KOKC and
KOUN this evening. Any thunderstorms could be strong to severe
with gusty, erratic winds, large hail, and temporary ceiling
restrictions. Gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front,
especially late this evening and overnight.

There could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the cold
front. Currently, greatest confidence for lowered ceilings is
across central Oklahoma (KOKC/KOUN) where TEMPOs were included
after midnight.

Northerly winds are expected to continue through the end of the
TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Complex weather scenario for this evening and tonight. Looking at
as many of the models as possible today, they all have a bit of a
different opinion on how things will play out.

It appears that most likely of these scenarios will be; we will
see some isolated convection develop, initially in our area near
or just ahead of dryline across south central Oklahoma in the 5 to
6 pm time frame. These storms will develop in an environment that
will be very unstable and will likely produce very large hail,
damaging winds and torrential rainfall. Also, a tornado risk will
exist, if a storm can either develop in an area of backed/stronger
surface winds, or with the extreme instability that exists, can
locally enhance the low level helicity/shear.

Elsewhere, storms may then try to develop south and west along an
advancing cold front from Missouri southwest along the I-44
corridor. Many of the models have difficulty in developing storms
as far west as central Oklahoma in the early evening hours.
However, by late evening, the models do develop storms along the
cold front across southern Oklahoma.

This would produce multiple rounds of heavy across parts of
southern Oklahoma, where they received heavy rain late last week.
Because of this possibility, will likely issue flood watch for
portions of south central and southeast Oklahoma overnight.

Some lingering activity will be possible Sunday morning across
southeast Oklahoma, but should clear the area soon enough to
result in a pleasant day Sunday and this will continue on Memorial
day Monday.

Throughout much of the upcoming week we see weak waves make their
way through the southern Plains, which bring/continue rain
chances across the area. Some risk of severe may exist from day to
day, but expect it to remain on the lower/marginal category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  80  57  85 /  40  10   0   0
Hobart OK         62  82  56  87 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  66  83  59  87 /  40  10   0   0
Gage OK           56  79  53  84 /  10   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     63  80  56  85 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         70  81  61  85 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ019-020-025>030-
     039>041-045-046-050.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ032-040>043-046>048-
     050>052.

TX...None.
&&

10/03/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281230-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1238 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a risk of severe storms across portions of Oklahoma and
north Texas.

Location...
An enhanced risk is along and east of a line from Ponca City to
Yukon to Ardmore Oklahoma. A slight risk resides east of a line
from Wakita to east of Hinton to Lawton to Wichita Falls Texas,
up to the enhanced risk.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from 4 PM to 4 AM.

Impacts...
Large, damaging hail, up to the size of softballs, and damaging
winds to 80 mph will be the primary concerns. There is a medium
risk for tornadoes with the early, isolated, activity that may
develop along the dry line in south central Oklahoma.

Discussion...
A dry line will continue to develop across portions of central
and southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Enough lift may
exist to overcome a strong cap leading to isolated to scattered
storms developing near the dry line late this afternoon and
evening. If these storms develop, they will likely become severe
with large, damaging, hail, possibly approaching the size of
Softballs, and damaging winds up to 70 mph. There will also be a
low chance for tornadoes with these storms since they will be more
likely to stay discrete.

There is also a chance of storms this evening and overnight near
a cold front that will move across the area. These storms would be
more widespread and are expected to develop into one or more line
segments. Some of these storms could also become severe producing
large hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts
to 80 mph. The potential for tornadoes will be lower with the
line of storms.

Thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of the area into
Sunday.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations late this
afternoon into tonight.

.Heat...
Heat index values of 103 to 109 will be possible today across
portions of central and south central Oklahoma, and western north
Texas. If you are going to be outdoors, take steps to prevent heat
related illnesses.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few strong to severe storms will remain possible Sunday morning
in parts of south central and southeast Oklahoma, mainly southeast
of a line from Centrahoma to Ardmore Oklahoma.

Thunderstorm chances will return to parts of the area Monday night
and continue through the rest of next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Kurtz

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1107 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W PRAGUE              35.49N 96.74W
05/27/2017                   LINCOLN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 62 BETWEEN MEEKER AND PRAGUE
            CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAFFIC BACK UP.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             1 SE SHARON             36.27N 99.33W
05/27/2017  E2.50 INCH       WOODWARD           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW WOODWARD          36.42N 99.42W
05/27/2017  M70 MPH          WOODWARD           OK   MESONET

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 WNW SEILING           36.19N 99.04W
05/27/2017  M62 MPH          WOODWARD           OK   MESONET

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MUTUAL                  36.23N 99.17W
05/27/2017                   WOODWARD           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS WINDOWS BLOWN OUT.

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PRAGUE                  35.49N 96.69W
05/27/2017                   LINCOLN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ROADS IN TOWN

1124 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S PRAGUE              35.44N 96.69W
05/27/2017                   POTTAWATOMIE       OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER HWY 99

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N RINGLING            34.19N 97.59W
05/27/2017  M71 MPH          JEFFERSON          OK   MESONET

&&

DW