Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Norman, OK

085 
WGUS74 KOUN 280714
FFSOUN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
214 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

OKC005-029-280722-
/O.EXP.KOUN.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170528T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coal OK-Atoka OK-
214 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COAL AND NORTHEASTERN
ATOKA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 AM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended and the threat of flash flooding has 
decreased. 

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall has likely resulted in flooding 
of small creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low 
lying spots. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3447 9579 3440 9622 3457 9627 3468 9588
      3460 9588 3459 9584

$$

BRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
555 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The May 28-29, 2017 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally expect VFR conditions to continue at most terminals
through the TAF period. A cold front continues to shift southward
this evening and has already passed through KGAG/KWWR/KPNC/KCSM.
The cold front will pass through all terminals tonight. As the
cold front shifts southward, thunderstorms could impact KOKC and
KOUN this evening. Any thunderstorms could be strong to severe
with gusty, erratic winds, large hail, and temporary ceiling
restrictions. Gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front,
especially late this evening and overnight.

There could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the cold
front. Currently, greatest confidence for lowered ceilings is
across central Oklahoma (KOKC/KOUN) where TEMPOs were included
after midnight.

Northerly winds are expected to continue through the end of the
TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Complex weather scenario for this evening and tonight. Looking at
as many of the models as possible today, they all have a bit of a
different opinion on how things will play out.

It appears that most likely of these scenarios will be; we will
see some isolated convection develop, initially in our area near
or just ahead of dryline across south central Oklahoma in the 5 to
6 pm time frame. These storms will develop in an environment that
will be very unstable and will likely produce very large hail,
damaging winds and torrential rainfall. Also, a tornado risk will
exist, if a storm can either develop in an area of backed/stronger
surface winds, or with the extreme instability that exists, can
locally enhance the low level helicity/shear.

Elsewhere, storms may then try to develop south and west along an
advancing cold front from Missouri southwest along the I-44
corridor. Many of the models have difficulty in developing storms
as far west as central Oklahoma in the early evening hours.
However, by late evening, the models do develop storms along the
cold front across southern Oklahoma.

This would produce multiple rounds of heavy across parts of
southern Oklahoma, where they received heavy rain late last week.
Because of this possibility, will likely issue flood watch for
portions of south central and southeast Oklahoma overnight.

Some lingering activity will be possible Sunday morning across
southeast Oklahoma, but should clear the area soon enough to
result in a pleasant day Sunday and this will continue on Memorial
day Monday.

Throughout much of the upcoming week we see weak waves make their
way through the southern Plains, which bring/continue rain
chances across the area. Some risk of severe may exist from day to
day, but expect it to remain on the lower/marginal category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  80  57  85 /  40  10   0   0
Hobart OK         62  82  56  87 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  66  83  59  87 /  40  10   0   0
Gage OK           56  79  53  84 /  10   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     63  80  56  85 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         70  81  61  85 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ019-020-025>030-
     039>041-045-046-050.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ032-040>043-046>048-
     050>052.

TX...None.
&&

10/03/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281230-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1238 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a risk of severe storms across portions of Oklahoma and
north Texas.

Location...
An enhanced risk is along and east of a line from Ponca City to
Yukon to Ardmore Oklahoma. A slight risk resides east of a line
from Wakita to east of Hinton to Lawton to Wichita Falls Texas,
up to the enhanced risk.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from 4 PM to 4 AM.

Impacts...
Large, damaging hail, up to the size of softballs, and damaging
winds to 80 mph will be the primary concerns. There is a medium
risk for tornadoes with the early, isolated, activity that may
develop along the dry line in south central Oklahoma.

Discussion...
A dry line will continue to develop across portions of central
and southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Enough lift may
exist to overcome a strong cap leading to isolated to scattered
storms developing near the dry line late this afternoon and
evening. If these storms develop, they will likely become severe
with large, damaging, hail, possibly approaching the size of
Softballs, and damaging winds up to 70 mph. There will also be a
low chance for tornadoes with these storms since they will be more
likely to stay discrete.

There is also a chance of storms this evening and overnight near
a cold front that will move across the area. These storms would be
more widespread and are expected to develop into one or more line
segments. Some of these storms could also become severe producing
large hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts
to 80 mph. The potential for tornadoes will be lower with the
line of storms.

Thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of the area into
Sunday.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations late this
afternoon into tonight.

.Heat...
Heat index values of 103 to 109 will be possible today across
portions of central and south central Oklahoma, and western north
Texas. If you are going to be outdoors, take steps to prevent heat
related illnesses.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few strong to severe storms will remain possible Sunday morning
in parts of south central and southeast Oklahoma, mainly southeast
of a line from Centrahoma to Ardmore Oklahoma.

Thunderstorm chances will return to parts of the area Monday night
and continue through the rest of next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Kurtz

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
938 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     HAIL             1 S ETOWAH              35.12N 97.17W
05/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       CLEVELAND          OK   PUBLIC

0931 PM     HAIL             5 N HENNEPIN            34.58N 97.35W
05/27/2017  E2.75 INCH       GARVIN             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

0932 PM     HAIL             3 WNW HENNEPIN          34.53N 97.40W
05/27/2017  E2.75 INCH       GARVIN             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
949 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

OKZ030>032-280345-
Pottawatomie OK-Hughes OK-Seminole OK-
949 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Pottawatomie...
northwestern Hughes and central Seminole Counties Until 1045 PM
CDT...

AT 947 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest of
Maud, moving east at 60 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 9619 3508 9696 3524 9697 3538 9644
      3529 9644 3529 9621
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 262DEG 52KT 3517 9683

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             5 WSW PURCELL           34.99N 97.45W
05/27/2017  E4.00 INCH       MCCLAIN            OK   PUBLIC

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
959 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     HAIL             1 E COALGATE            34.53N 96.20W
05/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       COAL               OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             MAUD                    35.13N 96.78W
05/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     TSTM WND GST     DAVIS                   34.50N 97.12W
05/27/2017  E60 MPH          MURRAY             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

DW