Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS Norman, OK

466 
WGUS54 KOUN 042006
FFWOUN
OKC083-042145-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-171004T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
306 PM CDT WED OCT 4 2017

The National Weather Service in Norman has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southern Logan County in central Oklahoma...

* Until 445 PM CDT
  
* At 306 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to
  three inches of rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is already
  occurring.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Guthrie, Langston, Crescent, Cashion, Cedar Valley, Cimarron City,
  Navina and Seward.

Additional rainfall amounts of up to one inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 9735 3598 9735 3599 9734 3597 9726
      3575 9733 3573 9767 3595 9767 3601 9744

$$

03

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
537 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.AVIATION...
Overall IFR to MVFR conditions are expected today at most TAF
sites. Scattered to widespread showers will continue to move
and develop across the northern 2/3rds of Oklahoma. Embedded
storms will lower visibility to less than 2 miles, otherwise
visibility may lower to less than 5 miles in moderate rain
showers. Some improvement in ceilings may occur this evening
and overnight, especially across the southern half of
Oklahoma and north Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Early this morning, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
were located across the southern 2/3rds of Oklahoma and part of
western north Texas. Some of the showers/storms are producing
heavy rainfall amounts (1/2 to 3/4 inch) in a very short amount of
time. With near record/record PW values in place across most of
the southern Plains, the risk of very heavy rain and subsequent
flooding is a concern. The NAM12 favors heavy rainfall across
northwest/northern Oklahoma near a weak frontal boundary while
other operational models and CAMs suggest a location farther
south. A recent run of the HRRRx places an axis of heavy rainfall
from near Stillwater to OKC and Ada with 3 to 5 inch amounts
through 21z Wednesday. Unsure about the exact placement of heavy
rain totals, but expect rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches with
some 5 inch amounts possible. With this in mind, a Flash Flood
Watch was issued and will be valid through 7 pm Wednesday.

During the day and tonight, the flow of rich tropical-like moisture
will be interrupted as drier air is advected into parts of east
Texas. Better ascent will also shift northward, therefore better
chances of showers and some storms will be across part of western
and northern Oklahoma tonight into Thursday.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase Friday through Saturday
morning, as a cold front and trough move across the central and
southern Plains.

A much stronger front, with very dry air, is expected to move
across Oklahoma and north Texas on Monday. Some showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with the front, especially across
the eastern half of Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  68  81  66 /  90  30  20  10
Hobart OK         79  69  82  69 /  90  40  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  80  68  83  67 /  70  20  10  10
Gage OK           74  67  77  67 /  70  60  60  20
Ponca City OK     75  69  79  68 /  80  50  40  10
Durant OK         81  66  84  64 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ018>020-023>031-038>042-
     044-046-047.

TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051645-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1132 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Heavy Rainfall...
Areas of heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and flash flooding
in some areas. A flood watch is in effect for portions of central
Oklahoma.

.Thunderstorms...
A few storms are possible this afternoon. No severe weather is
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
A chance of thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday. The
greatest chance is Friday afternoon through early Saturday. Some
strong to severe thunderstorms could develop late Friday afternoon
and evening. There is a Slight Risk of severe storms across
portions of western and northern Oklahoma Friday. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the main concerns.

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