Areal Flood Advisory 252, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...Aviation Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAF:

A band of heavy rain showers will continue to impact portions of
central and southwest Oklahoma through the afternoon. Brief
periods of visibility reduction to 2 miles and possibly lower are
possible at OKC, OUN, HBR, LAW and PNC. MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings will continue into the night at many locations with some
improvement tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/

AVIATION...
Overall IFR to MVFR conditions are expected today at most TAF
sites. Scattered to widespread showers will continue to move
and develop across the northern 2/3rds of Oklahoma. Embedded
storms will lower visibility to less than 2 miles, otherwise
visibility may lower to less than 5 miles in moderate rain
showers. Some improvement in ceilings may occur this evening
and overnight, especially across the southern half of
Oklahoma and north Texas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Early this morning, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
were located across the southern 2/3rds of Oklahoma and part of
western north Texas. Some of the showers/storms are producing
heavy rainfall amounts (1/2 to 3/4 inch) in a very short amount of
time. With near record/record PW values in place across most of
the southern Plains, the risk of very heavy rain and subsequent
flooding is a concern. The NAM12 favors heavy rainfall across
northwest/northern Oklahoma near a weak frontal boundary while
other operational models and CAMs suggest a location farther
south. A recent run of the HRRRx places an axis of heavy rainfall
from near Stillwater to OKC and Ada with 3 to 5 inch amounts
through 21z Wednesday. Unsure about the exact placement of heavy
rain totals, but expect rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches with
some 5 inch amounts possible. With this in mind, a Flash Flood
Watch was issued and will be valid through 7 pm Wednesday.

During the day and tonight, the flow of rich tropical-like moisture
will be interrupted as drier air is advected into parts of east
Texas. Better ascent will also shift northward, therefore better
chances of showers and some storms will be across part of western
and northern Oklahoma tonight into Thursday.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase Friday through Saturday
morning, as a cold front and trough move across the central and
southern Plains.

A much stronger front, with very dry air, is expected to move
across Oklahoma and north Texas on Monday. Some showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with the front, especially across
the eastern half of Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  68  81  66 /  90  30  20  10
Hobart OK         79  69  82  69 /  90  40  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  80  68  83  67 /  70  20  10  10
Gage OK           74  67  77  67 /  60  60  60  20
Ponca City OK     75  69  79  68 / 100  50  40  10
Durant OK         81  66  84  64 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ012-013-017>020-
     023>031-038>042-044-046-047.

TX...None.
&&

12/25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051645-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1132 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Heavy Rainfall...
Areas of heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and flash flooding
in some areas. A flood watch is in effect for portions of central
Oklahoma.

.Thunderstorms...
A few storms are possible this afternoon. No severe weather is
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
A chance of thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday. The
greatest chance is Friday afternoon through early Saturday. Some
strong to severe thunderstorms could develop late Friday afternoon
and evening. There is a Slight Risk of severe storms across
portions of western and northern Oklahoma Friday. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the main concerns.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 E BILLINGS            36.53N 97.34W
10/04/2017                   NOBLE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 15 WATER OVER ROADWAY

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
109 PM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE PIEDMONT           35.63N 97.73W
10/04/2017                   CANADIAN           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A 200 YARD STRETCH OF MUSTANG ROAD BETWEEN 150TH AND
            164TH IS FLOODED. ONE FOOT OF WATER IS FLOWING ACROSS THE
            ROAD.

&&

BRB