Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Nashville, TN

490 
WWUS54 KOHX 031745
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

TNC021-043-031754-
/O.CAN.KOHX.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-170703T1800Z/
Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL DICKSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHEATHAM COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3606 8695 3624 8698 3629 8678 3607 8673
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 261DEG 39KT 3617 8688 

$$

TNC037-031800-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-170703T1800Z/
Davidson TN-
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY...

At 1244 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Belle Meade,
or near Nashville, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Nashville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Bellevue, Berry Hill,
Bells Bend and Whites Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8695 3624 8698 3629 8678 3607 8673
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 261DEG 39KT 3617 8688 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Rose

497 
WWUS54 KOHX 031758
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1258 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

TNC037-031808-
/O.EXP.KOHX.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-170703T1800Z/
Davidson TN-
1258 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 100 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3606 8695 3624 8698 3629 8678 3607 8673
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 261DEG 26KT 3617 8683 

$$

Rose

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
633 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Same story has been shaping up every day for the past few days
with chances for afternoon thunderstorms, and some being strong to
severe. SPC has put in a marginal risk for severe storms mainly
for western areas today thanks to approaching shortwave trough
that has moved north over the past few model runs. It looks to
mainly impact areas west of I-65 due to the location of the upper
shortwave and assistance from diurnal help as progress of
convection should only make it into western zones before sunset.
Instability falls off quickly in the early evening, as well as
deep layer shear which is pretty weak to begin with, so strong to
severe threat should diminish this evening. Main threat will be
damaging winds but also heavy rain, and with all of the precip
over the mid state during the past week, flooding will be a
concern especially in areas that received larger amounts over the
last week.

Upper shortwave stalls a bit over the mid state, so chances for
showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight hours and
morning on Tuesday. Model consensus is showing good agreement on
this solution, so put in likely mention of showers and storms
during this timeframe as the upper low moves through the mid
state. Still holding out hope that the shortwave and associated
precip chances move east and keep the evening timeframe around the
Nashville metro area dry for holiday activities. Still carrying
chance pops east of I-65 as some models have some lingering precip
holding on to that area in the evening, but odds favor that most
of the mid state will be dry after sunset.

Wednesday will have some chances for showers and storms, but the
better shot will be on Thursday. Another shortwave will develop
and strengthen over northern MO, and has been pretty consistent
within model runs. Good warm air/moisture advection ahead of the
trough will increase precip chances during the day Thursday, and
trough axis/cold front will continue chances Thursday evening into
the early morning hours Friday. A brief dry period during the day
Friday will be short lived as another trough over the Great Lakes
moves eastward and brings more cold air southward, bringing
chances for showers and storms back Friday night into the day
Saturday.

Sunday looks to be dry as northwest flow settles into the region.
Kept the early part of next week dry as well since upper flow is
weak, and no real shortwave activity to mention to kick off
chances for precip. Right now, any storm activity would be
diurnally driven, and long term models are not showing much around
the area just yet. Models start to diverge quite a bit after this
timeframe, so will enjoy the dry period should it pan out Sunday
through Tuesday for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Patchy dense fog this morning will bring MVFR to VLIFR cigs/vis
very early in the TAF period to CKV/MQY/CSV. Otherwise, MVFR/VFR
cigs expected this TAF period with VCTS developing once again by
16-17Z at all airports. More widespread showers and storms
anticipated Monday evening into Monday night as an upper level
system moves across the area. Light south to west winds expected
at all airports through the TAF period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
938 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
938 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
Middle Tennessee this afternoon into tonight, especially west of I-
65. Some storms may be strong and produce high winds, heavy
rainfall, and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again
across Middle Tennessee from late Wednesday night into Thursday. A
few storms may once again be strong with high winds, heavy
rainfall, and localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Rose