Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Same story has been shaping up every day for the past few days
with chances for afternoon thunderstorms, and some being strong to
severe. SPC has put in a marginal risk for severe storms mainly
for western areas today thanks to approaching shortwave trough
that has moved north over the past few model runs. It looks to
mainly impact areas west of I-65 due to the location of the upper
shortwave and assistance from diurnal help as progress of
convection should only make it into western zones before sunset.
Instability falls off quickly in the early evening, as well as
deep layer shear which is pretty weak to begin with, so strong to
severe threat should diminish this evening. Main threat will be
damaging winds but also heavy rain, and with all of the precip
over the mid state during the past week, flooding will be a
concern especially in areas that received larger amounts over the
last week.

Upper shortwave stalls a bit over the mid state, so chances for
showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight hours and
morning on Tuesday. Model consensus is showing good agreement on
this solution, so put in likely mention of showers and storms
during this timeframe as the upper low moves through the mid
state. Still holding out hope that the shortwave and associated
precip chances move east and keep the evening timeframe around the
Nashville metro area dry for holiday activities. Still carrying
chance pops east of I-65 as some models have some lingering precip
holding on to that area in the evening, but odds favor that most
of the mid state will be dry after sunset.

Wednesday will have some chances for showers and storms, but the
better shot will be on Thursday. Another shortwave will develop
and strengthen over northern MO, and has been pretty consistent
within model runs. Good warm air/moisture advection ahead of the
trough will increase precip chances during the day Thursday, and
trough axis/cold front will continue chances Thursday evening into
the early morning hours Friday. A brief dry period during the day
Friday will be short lived as another trough over the Great Lakes
moves eastward and brings more cold air southward, bringing
chances for showers and storms back Friday night into the day
Saturday.

Sunday looks to be dry as northwest flow settles into the region.
Kept the early part of next week dry as well since upper flow is
weak, and no real shortwave activity to mention to kick off
chances for precip. Right now, any storm activity would be
diurnally driven, and long term models are not showing much around
the area just yet. Models start to diverge quite a bit after this
timeframe, so will enjoy the dry period should it pan out Sunday
through Tuesday for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Line of convection is moving through Middle
Tennessee this afternoon. There will be some gusty winds with
these storms. Upper trough will swing through the mid state
overnight, and the HRRR brings another round of convection through
this evening. Look for low ceilings to once again develop closer
to 12Z with more widespread showers tomorrow morning. Exact timing
of convection is difficult to pinpoint, so am including a
predominant group for the evening and just VCSH Tuesday morning.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
938 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
938 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
Middle Tennessee this afternoon into tonight, especially west of I-
65. Some storms may be strong and produce high winds, heavy
rainfall, and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again
across Middle Tennessee from late Wednesday night into Thursday. A
few storms may once again be strong with high winds, heavy
rainfall, and localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Rose