Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
148 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Surface high is centered just off the Florida Gulf Coast this hour
as a warm front becomes established along the Ohio Valley. This
leaves Middle Tennessee in a warm, moist & unstable environment
that is primed for thunderstorms today & tomorrow. Earlier
activity has completely dissipated, but a second round of storms
is now developing north of the TN/KY line, with weaker cells
popping up across Middle Tennessee. Skies have partially cleared
after the earlier storms, so this is allowing temperatures to warm
considerably and should help destabilization.

The morning sounding from OHX shows a strong capping inversion
situated around 750 mb, with steep mid-level lapse rates and
surface-based lifted index of -3. MUCAPE was just shy of 2,000
J/kg. GFS forecast soundings do show some erosion of the cap by
18Z tomorrow with the mid-level lapse rates contributing to higher
CAPE's and impressive LI values. Forecast SRH's indicate very
weak shear, so straight-line winds and large hail appear to be the
primary threats with the anticipated severe weather tonight and
tomorrow.

It appears as though isolated/scattered storms will persist
throughout the day and early evening until more organized
convection enters the mid state maybe 02Z or later. There is some
discrepancy between the NAM and GFS regarding timing of later
(tomorrow) storms, so on Sunday we'll just stick with likely
POP's most areas to go along with SPC's slight risk for day 2.

We likely won't see fropa here in Middle Tennessee until after
12Z Monday, so we won't see POP's drop off until then. Look for
slightly cooler temperatures (near normal or slightly above) to
start off next week and lasting at least until next weekend. A wet
pattern will slip back in rather quickly, with isolated or
scattered POP's most areas from Tuesday through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Active period setting up as waves of showers and thunderstorms
are expected. First up are isolated/scattered storms this
afteroon...with more organized development this evening...and
then again overnight. Outside of showers/storms this afternoon
and most of the evening...VFR conditions are likely. Cigs are
likely to go below 3kft overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  84  66  83  62 /  60  60  60  10   0
Clarksville    69  82  62  82  61 /  60  50  40   0   0
Crossville     65  78  63  76  58 /  50  60  60  30   0
Columbia       69  83  65  82  62 /  60  50  60  20   0
Lawrenceburg   69  83  66  82  62 /  50  50  60  20   0
Waverly        68  82  63  82  61 /  60  50  50  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
354 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
354 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight to moderate risk of severe storms across Middle
Tennessee tonight. Damaging winds, large hail, and localized
flooding are the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a slight risk of severe storms across Middle Tennessee
again Sunday and Sunday night. Damaging winds, large hail, and
localized flooding will be possible once again.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight and again on Sunday.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
432 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

TNZ028-030-062-272200-
Rutherford TN-Wilson TN-Smith TN-
432 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SMITH...NORTH
CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 432 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rural Hill, or 13 miles southwest of Lebanon, moving east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Smyrna, La Vergne, Mount Juliet, Watertown, Rural Hill,
Walterhill, Alexandria, Cedars Of Lebanon State Park, Tuckers
Crossroads and Gladeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 8602 3609 8606 3607 8606 3599 8602
      3595 8656 3603 8658 3604 8656 3606 8656
      3607 8655 3609 8655 3608 8653 3606 8653
      3610 8652 3614 8653 3614 8656 3615 8653
      3625 8605
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 259DEG 34KT 3606 8649

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
451 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

TNZ028-030-272215-
Wilson TN-Smith TN-
451 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SMITH AND
NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lebanon, moving east at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Carthage, Watertown, South Carthage, Alexandria and Tuckers
Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 8598 3608 8601 3609 8601 3608 8603
      3609 8606 3607 8606 3607 8605 3606 8606
      3606 8605 3604 8605 3611 8634 3629 8632
      3630 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 276DEG 15KT 3620 8625

Rose

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
453 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             BAXTER                  36.15N  85.64W
05/27/2017  E0.70 INCH       PUTNAM             TN   TWITTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700590

JACKSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
535 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

TNZ005-006-272300-
Stewart TN-Montgomery TN-
535 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND
STEWART COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Canton, or 13 miles northwest of Dover, moving east
at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, frequent cloud to
ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Clarksville, Big Rock, Cumberland City, Land Between The
Lakes, Indian Mound and Woodlawn.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8743 3637 8760
      3639 8801 3644 8806 3649 8806 3652 8804
      3656 8803 3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 284DEG 48KT 3664 8797

31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
544 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

TNZ009-010-031-272315-
Clay TN-Jackson TN-Macon TN-
544 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JACKSON...CLAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 544 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Red Boiling Springs, or 10 miles northwest of Gainesboro, moving
east at 45 mph.

Dime size hail, winds in excess of 40 mph, frequent cloud to ground
lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Celina, Red Boiling Springs, Whitleyville and Moss.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3651 8538 3650 8540 3650 8544 3648 8546
      3636 8583 3641 8583 3641 8584 3654 8587
      3662 8580 3661 8551 3662 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 253DEG 39KT 3648 8576

31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
551 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

TNZ009-029-272315-
Trousdale TN-Macon TN-
551 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON AND NORTHERN TROUSDALE
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 551 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hartsville, moving east at 45 mph.

Dime size hail, winds in excess of 40 mph, frequent cloud to ground
lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Hartsville, Red Boiling Springs and Bugtussle.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3661 8580 3641 8583 3643 8598 3642 8597
      3640 8598 3638 8620 3640 8623 3645 8627
      3645 8624 3648 8623 3649 8622 3652 8621
      3663 8587 3662 8579
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 253DEG 39KT 3645 8621

31