Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1049 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest model data shows that as closed upper low dives south
southeastward, from Missouri into western Tennessee, area of
deepest moisture lifts north northeastward. That area of deep
moisture was over western Middle Tennessee early this morning, and
should be over our northeastern areas this afternoon. Dry slot,
where low clouds have temporarily thinned, was located over
eastern areas and was allowing temperatures to warm a bit faster
than earlier expected. Thus, will raise max temperatures over the
east a little for this afternoon.

As temperatures warm over eastern and southern areas this
afternoon, we will likely find the modest available CAPE realized
in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few
of the thunderstorms could become strong-to-severe, with hail and
damaging winds. SPC has placed our eastern areas under a marginal
risk for severe storms for this afternoon. Presence of closed
upper low in our vicinity will enhance the chance for at least
small hail with just about any of the sturdier thunderstorms that
develop today, with the potential for large hail in a few of them
(especially over the east).

Have refashioned our pop and wx grids for this afternoon to be
more in line with latest model expectations.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through the region
mainly during the morning hours, with chances decreasing through
the afternoon. MVFR and even IFR cigs/vis will impact KCKV and
KBNA this morning with the first round of showers while IFR/LIFR
cigs/vis will impact KCSV. Upper low looks to move north this
afternoon, so cigs may improve to high MVFR and even VFR by late
afternoon/evening. Winds look to primarily be at or less than 10
knots out of the northwest this morning for KBNA and KCKV, and out
of the south/southwest at KCSV. Eventually by the afternoon hours
all terminals will see westerly or west-northwesterly winds.
Chances for precipitation will decrease this evening, but some
lingering showers may impact terminals during the evening and
overnight. Models have the activity pretty isolated, so not enough
confidence to put mention of showers in the TAF for this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  54  72  57  85 / 100  30  20   0   0
Clarksville    64  53  71  56  83 /  90  20  10   0  10
Crossville     68  50  64  52  78 / 100  40  30   0   0
Columbia       66  52  72  55  85 /  80  40  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   68  52  72  54  85 /  90  40  10   0   0
Waverly        66  52  72  56  84 /  90  30  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......12
AVIATION........19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1230 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-251730-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
1230 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and
evening for areas east of interstate 65. The main focus will be
along and east of a line from Red Boiling Springs to Smithville
to Manchester to Tracy City. The main threat will be gusty winds
to 65 mph and hail. A brief tornado may be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may become necessary this afternoon and
evening.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1128 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2017

TNZ009-028>030-241715-
Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Macon TN-Smith TN-
1128 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SMITH...NORTHEASTERN
WILSON...SOUTH CENTRAL MACON AND TROUSDALE COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM
CDT...

At 1127 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Lebanon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Carthage, Hartsville, Gordonsville, South Carthage,
Tuckers Crossroads, Dixon Springs, Pleasant Shade and Dickerson
Chapel Recreation Area.

LAT...LON 3623 8584 3608 8622 3635 8629 3653 8598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 234DEG 22KT 3621 8619

Whitehead