Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
230 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Main concern is potential for severe thunderstorms through the
evening hours.

The atmosphere has continued to destabilize as temperatures south
of the warm front warmed into the 70s. Meanwhile, northeast
Nebraska was only in the mid to upper 40s. Surface low will
track northeast this evening, probably reaching southeast
Minnesota by just after midnight. The strong to severe storms
should exit our area prior to 11 pm, but some high based showers
still seem possible behind the front has depicted by recent
experimental HRRR and experimental HRRR model output. Recent RAP
model runs however are dry. Will maintain some low POPs for now
well behind the front into the early morning hours. Look for
northwest winds and lows in the 40s overnight.

After tonight, we have a dry forecast until Friday afternoon.
After the shortwave energy moves through tonight, we should see
mid level ridging move in from the west. But at the same time, a
trough will be digging from British Columbia Canada into western
Colorado. Cool high pressure at the surface should build over
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Thursday, then move east.
Current model guidance is not in exact agreement, but it appears
that a Rex Block pattern should develop over the northern and
central parts of the Plains, with the mid level low portion of the
block slowly tracking east across Kansas and Missouri Friday
through Saturday. Some precipitation, which may be locally heavy,
should affect about the southern half of the forecast area.
Highest chances are from Friday night into Saturday morning. High
temperatures both Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Temperatures will moderate to highs in the upper 60s to around 70
for Sunday, then mainly lower 70s for Monday. Rain chances look
fairly low on those days, except in northeast Nebraska. It looks
like the main precipitation shield with a low pressure system
moving through the region should stay up across the Dakotas and
Minnesota.

Another couple of systems will move through the mid part of the
country next week. One will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
another Wednesday night into Friday. The late week system looks
cool, but not cool enough for any snow in our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Expect some improvement in ceilings at KOMA and KLNK for a while
this afternoon until TSRA develop. Did not include strong winds or
hail in TAFs for now due to low confidence on being right at the
site, but will amend as needed. MVFR ceilings are expected to move
in behind the cold front for tonight, then lift late tonight or
Thursday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Miller

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
333 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-201045-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
333 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

A tornado watch has been issued for southwest Iowa and parts of
eastern Nebraska, which is in effect until 10 pm. Storms could
produce large hail and damaging winds. There is also some
potential for tornadoes. The storms may form into a line, with
that line moving eastward through the evening.

A moist and unstable environment, in combination with adequate
wind shear, will be in place this afternoon and into the evening.
This should allow development of some supercell type storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The probability for hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be alert and ready for activation. Follow your
local activation guidelines. Please send us reports of any severe
weather you may observe.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
532 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 40.82N 96.69W
04/19/2017  E1.75 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA MAIN CAMPUS

&&

DERGAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
543 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

IAZ055-069-NEZ045-052-192315-
Pottawattamie IA-Harrison IA-Washington NE-Douglas NE-
543 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...
SOUTH CENTRAL HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Fort Calhoun, or in north Omaha, moving east at
40 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Omaha, Underwood, Fort Calhoun, Carter Lake, Bennington,
Crescent, McClelland, Washington, Hitchcock Nature Center and Wilson
Island State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 75 IN Nebraska between mile markers 94 and 108.
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 58 and 74.
 Interstate 80 IN Iowa between mile markers 11 and 17.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southwestern
Iowa...and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4129 9619 4138 9626 4155 9589 4153 9573
      4142 9565 4130 9570
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 247DEG 36KT 4136 9610

MAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
544 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             2 NW WESTERN            40.41N 97.23W
04/19/2017  E0.75 INCH       SALINE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DERGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
551 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             10 N FAIRBURY           40.29N 97.18W
04/19/2017  M1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DPEARSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
553 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

IAZ043-NEZ015-034-192330-
Monona IA-Thurston NE-Burt NE-
553 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

...Special Weather Statement...

At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Macy, or 27 miles south of Sioux City, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Whiting, Macy, Lewis And Clark State Park, Kennebec and Omaha
Reservation.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 75 IN Nebraska between mile markers 150 and 159.
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 115 and 125.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Iowa...and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4221 9598 4208 9592 4199 9641 4212 9645
      4222 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 255DEG 34KT 4210 9632

MAYES