Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
306 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

Isolated storms are possible through the remainder of the holiday
period.

Scattered thunderstorms had popped up in a narrow band from
southeast Nebraska across central Iowa into northern Illinois in
vicinity of a weak surface boundary at 19Z. A weak upper low was
also indicated over northeast Kansas helping to lift convection
slowly north. Forecast soundings show plenty of instability over
the area this afternoon but weak shear resulting in limited
movement.

CAM models generally weaken and dissipate the current convection
over the area by 00Z with primary focus shifting to western
Nebraska and eastern Kansas for the evening period as weak short
waves move into those respective areas. After 06Z main development
is expected across South Dakota and Oklahoma as the short waves
continue to dig eastward. This northern and southern split
continues into Tuesday with the forecast area generally between
the two convective complexes. Have kept PoPs on the low end for
the area through Tuesday for mainly popup storms.

Upper ridge over the western CONUS then begins to push into the
plains region Tuesday night and Wednesday with rain chances
diminishing. Hot temperatures then become the main forecast
feature for Wednesday and Thursday with the heat index around 100
degrees Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

Pattern returns to a western ridge eastern trough configuration in
the extended period. This results in a bit less heat with a return
to periodic chances of thunderstorms as northwest flow sets up
again over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday morning outside of any
thunderstorms that could affect TAF sites. Isolated thunderstorms
which developed just before 18Z in southwest Iowa will likely
spread northwest toward the KOMA and KOFK TAF sites during the
afternoon and evening, and could produce MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Dergan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-040745-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across most of eastern
Nebraska, and especially southwest Iowa, through the afternoon and
evening. Some of the storms could produce small hail and gusty
winds, but a few could become stronger and produce large hail.
Brief heavy rain is also possible as storms only slowly drift to
the northeast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A chance of thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through
Tuesday night. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
330 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

NEZ089-090-092-032100-
Gage NE-Pawnee NE-Johnson NE-
330 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for SOUTH CENTRAL JOHNSON...
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE AND SOUTHEASTERN GAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 330 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Pawnee City, or 21 miles east of Beatrice, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burchard, Steinauer and Lewiston.

LAT...LON 4007 9640 4021 9648 4033 9631 4013 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 244DEG 17KT 4019 9636

MEAD

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