Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
310 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

The timing and intensity of thunderstorms through the overnight
is the main forecast problem.

Upper air charts from 12z showed a closed low centered near
central MT, with height falls of up to 140 meters. There was a
95 knot jet max south of the low across UT and WY. Thermal ridge
at 700 mb extended from TX up into KS and NE. Cap is fairly strong
in much of the forecast area but a rogue cell did track quickly
northeast over parts of our area toward KSUX. Cap has weakened
farther to the west in central NE. MLCAPE values locally are
3000-4000 J/kg and Sfc to 6 km shear is 30-50 knots in the area
where main area of storms should initiate. Latest HRRR runs
suggest development in the next hour or so, with varying model
solutions as to how far and how fast things spread east this
evening. Looks like most of the area should see at least some
storms. Highest hail threat should be before dark, with a
transition more to outflow dominated storms. There does also
appear to be some tornado risk, but chances seem higher north of
our area. High PW (Precipitable Water) values across the forecast
area are mostly 1.0 to 1.4 inches, so there is some threat of
heavy rain.

Expect that most activity will be east of our area by sunrise
Wednesday but will keep some low POPs going in far southeast NE
and southwest IA into Wednesday. Currently have the period from
Wednesday night into Thursday morning dry. Both the 12z NAM and
GFS suggest that a convective complex may develop over parts of
southern NE and northern KS Thursday afternoon and evening. That
has been a fairly consistent trend and will stay with that
thinking. There are signals for storm potential again Friday
into Friday evening as well.

Lows tonight should drop to the lower and mid 60s in much of
northeast NE, ranging to lower 70s near the MO border. Highs
Wednesday should reach the mid 80s to lower 90s, with Thursday
a few degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

At the beginning of this period, we should be in modest west/
northwest flow at 500 mb. This flow should buckle a big as a
fast moving shortwave crosses the northern Plains. Otherwise a
warm mid tropospheric anticyclone should develop over AZ and NM
but extend north into western Canada. Model solutions vary a bit
in regards to waves moving toward us from the northwest, and
there will some intermittent chances for storms. Highs should
average in the 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

VFR conditions to continue with gusty south/southeast surface
winds. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west
of the TAF sites and spread east through the night. Best time
frame for KOFK looks like 23-02z, KLNK 03-06z and KOMA 04-07z.
Some of these storms could be severe.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
346 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-141100-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
346 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

Thunderstorms will move across parts of eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa through the evening. Some storms may be severe.
Initially, the biggest risk will be large hail, but damaging
winds and a few tornadoes also are possible. As storms continue,
the risk will transition to hail and damaging winds.

Later tonight, another area of storms could move into the area
from the west or southwest. These storms could produce strong
winds and hail. Locally heavy rain is also possible through the
overnight.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over parts of
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Wednesday, but the chance
of severe storms is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon
and evening hours from Thursday through Saturday, and then again
Monday night. Widespread severe weather is not likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening, especially
across northeast Nebraska.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
828 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     TSTM WND GST     BELLWOOD                41.34N 97.24W
06/13/2017  E60 MPH          BUTLER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CZAPOTOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
841 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBUS                41.43N 97.36W
06/13/2017                   PLATTE             NE   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE AND BRANCHES DOWN AT ELKS COUNTRY CLUB

&&

KRG