Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
310 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

The timing and intensity of thunderstorms through the overnight
is the main forecast problem.

Upper air charts from 12z showed a closed low centered near
central MT, with height falls of up to 140 meters. There was a
95 knot jet max south of the low across UT and WY. Thermal ridge
at 700 mb extended from TX up into KS and NE. Cap is fairly strong
in much of the forecast area but a rogue cell did track quickly
northeast over parts of our area toward KSUX. Cap has weakened
farther to the west in central NE. MLCAPE values locally are
3000-4000 J/kg and Sfc to 6 km shear is 30-50 knots in the area
where main area of storms should initiate. Latest HRRR runs
suggest development in the next hour or so, with varying model
solutions as to how far and how fast things spread east this
evening. Looks like most of the area should see at least some
storms. Highest hail threat should be before dark, with a
transition more to outflow dominated storms. There does also
appear to be some tornado risk, but chances seem higher north of
our area. High PW (Precipitable Water) values across the forecast
area are mostly 1.0 to 1.4 inches, so there is some threat of
heavy rain.

Expect that most activity will be east of our area by sunrise
Wednesday but will keep some low POPs going in far southeast NE
and southwest IA into Wednesday. Currently have the period from
Wednesday night into Thursday morning dry. Both the 12z NAM and
GFS suggest that a convective complex may develop over parts of
southern NE and northern KS Thursday afternoon and evening. That
has been a fairly consistent trend and will stay with that
thinking. There are signals for storm potential again Friday
into Friday evening as well.

Lows tonight should drop to the lower and mid 60s in much of
northeast NE, ranging to lower 70s near the MO border. Highs
Wednesday should reach the mid 80s to lower 90s, with Thursday
a few degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

At the beginning of this period, we should be in modest west/
northwest flow at 500 mb. This flow should buckle a big as a
fast moving shortwave crosses the northern Plains. Otherwise a
warm mid tropospheric anticyclone should develop over AZ and NM
but extend north into western Canada. Model solutions vary a bit
in regards to waves moving toward us from the northwest, and
there will some intermittent chances for storms. Highs should
average in the 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

VFR conditions to continue with gusty south/southeast surface
winds. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west
of the TAF sites and spread east through the night. Best time
frame for KOFK looks like 23-02z, KLNK 03-06z and KOMA 04-07z.
Some of these storms could be severe.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
346 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-141100-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
346 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

Thunderstorms will move across parts of eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa through the evening. Some storms may be severe.
Initially, the biggest risk will be large hail, but damaging
winds and a few tornadoes also are possible. As storms continue,
the risk will transition to hail and damaging winds.

Later tonight, another area of storms could move into the area
from the west or southwest. These storms could produce strong
winds and hail. Locally heavy rain is also possible through the
overnight.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over parts of
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Wednesday, but the chance
of severe storms is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon
and evening hours from Thursday through Saturday, and then again
Monday night. Widespread severe weather is not likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening, especially
across northeast Nebraska.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
653 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

NEZ016-017-031-140030-
Madison NE-Pierce NE-Antelope NE-
653 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for NORTHWESTERN MADISON...
SOUTHWESTERN PIERCE AND EAST CENTRAL ANTELOPE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM
CDT...

At 652 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Oakdale, or 23 miles west of Norfolk, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tilden.

This includes Highway 275 in Nebraska near mile marker 53.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Nebraska.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4204 9785 4211 9798 4229 9782 4218 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 210DEG 41KT 4211 9787

MEAD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
724 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

NEZ031-032-042-140100-
Stanton NE-Madison NE-Platte NE-
724 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...
NORTHEASTERN PLATTE AND SOUTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

At 723 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Lindsay, or 19 miles northwest of Columbus, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Platte Center, Creston, Humphrey, Tarnov and Cornlea.

This includes Highway 81 in Nebraska between mile markers 121 and
140.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4150 9748 4162 9769 4186 9760 4177 9728
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 207DEG 36KT 4167 9754

MEAD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
745 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

NEZ030-042-140115-
Platte NE-Boone NE-
745 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for NORTHWESTERN PLATTE AND
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 745 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
St. Edward, or 28 miles west of Columbus, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Edward, Lindsay, Cornlea and The Highway 14 And 56 Junction.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4175 9794 4167 9749 4152 9770 4153 9774
      4152 9780 4153 9788 4151 9789 4151 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 207DEG 36KT 4154 9789

MEAD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
748 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

NEZ031-032-042-043-140115-
Stanton NE-Madison NE-Platte NE-Colfax NE-
748 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for EASTERN MADISON...NORTHWESTERN
COLFAX...NORTHEASTERN PLATTE AND WESTERN STANTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815
PM CDT...

At 747 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles southwest of Norfolk to near Platte
Center. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Norfolk, Madison, Stanton, Leigh, Platte Center, Creston, Humphrey,
Tarnov, Maple Creek Recreation Area and 8 Miles South Of Stanton.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 275 in Nebraska between mile markers 70 and 87.
 Highway 81 in Nebraska between mile markers 124 and 157.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4209 9713 4155 9721 4152 9758 4206 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 249DEG 31KT 4198 9745 4152 9749

MEAD

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