Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
411 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...Red Flag Warnings in effect this afternoon through Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...An early morning thunderstorm is entering far
northwest Montana from the Idaho Panhandle. This storm should
continue to impact northwest Montana with gusty outflows of 20-40
mph and lightning through the morning hours.

Red Flag Warnings are in effect through this evening for mainly
dry thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop as early as late this morning and
continue through this evening across the majority of the Northern
Rockies. The best potential for storms will be in central Idaho
across west central and southwest Montana. Storms that occur won't
bring a great deal of precipitation but rather be associated with
lightning and gusty outflow winds of 30-50 mph.

Red Flag Warnings will continue Thursday as a dry cold front
pushes through the region resulting in sustained west winds of
10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Dry weather will continue through the weekend. High pressure will
re-establish itself over central Idaho. However northwest Montana
will remain under a breezy westerly flow with winds materializing
each afternoon and evening.

Late Sunday through Tuesday next week models are pretty consistent
showing a cool front moving in from the northeast and across the
continental divide. The biggest impact from this will be some
cooler temperatures and an increase in easterly winds especially
along the continental divide. Confidence is increasing for this
scenario however there continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty
how strong easterly winds may materialize.

&&

.AVIATION...A weak disturbance will be moving through extreme
northwest Montana this morning causing a few showers and an
isolated thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of producing
gusty and erratic winds. KGPI could be impacted by this feature
later this morning. Smoke over west central Montana will reduce
visibility to less than 3sm at times this morning with KMSO having
the biggest impact. This afternoon, the atmosphere destabilizing
allowing for increased shower activity, especially across north
central Idaho into west central and southwest Montana. These
storms will have a little more precipitation associated with them,
but gusty and erratic winds will be the main impact.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Thursday
     Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Thursday
     Bitterroot...East Lolo...Flathead/Glacier Park...Salish and
     Kootenai Reservation...West Lolo.

     Red Flag Warning from midnight tonight to 9 PM MDT Thursday
     Kootenai.

ID...     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM PDT this evening
     Clearwater/Nez Perce...Palouse/Hells Canyon.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
216 PM MDT WED AUG 30 2017

MTZ005-006-302045-
Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains MT-Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys MT-
216 PM MDT WED AUG 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RAVALLI COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MDT...

At 215 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Conner, or 28 miles south of Hamilton, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Conner, Sula, Spring Gulch campground, and Warm Springs Campground.

LAT...LON 4569 11405 4582 11429 4604 11399 4587 11373
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 223DEG 9KT 4585 11402