Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
230 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...Stable conditions across the region have allowed
thick wildfire smoke to settle into the valleys of north central
Idaho and western Montana. Low visibility and poor air quality
will continue for the rest of the day and into the overnight
hours. Isolated thundershowers are also starting to develop across
the Idaho Panhandle and could shift eastward into Clearwater and
Idaho counties, as well as the Idaho/Montana border as far north
as Noxon and Libby. Breezy winds and maybe a sprinkle of rain
should be expected, as well a lightning strike or two as well.

A passing shortwave trough and associated cold front will occur
Wednesday through Thursday, bringing a mixed bag of weather
impacts to the Northern Rockies. For Wednesday, central Idaho and
west central Montana will see an increasing potential for
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening
time frame. The main concerns we have with storms that develop
will be gusty outflow winds and cloud to ground lightning, which
does not bode well for ongoing wildfires. Given the thunderstorm
potential, as well as the low humidity and increasing winds, Red
Flag Warnings have been issued across central Idaho and western
Montana.

Lingering storms and gusty winds will linger overnight Wednesday
into Thursday as the cold front approaches from the west. Once
the front passes on Thursday, winds will remain elevated and keep
critical fire weather conditions going through the day. In fact,
winds may continue to be blustery during the day Friday as well.

The one good aspect to all of this will be a temporary relief
from smoke, thanks to the winds helping to drive it out of valleys
during this time period. Unfortunately, this relief will not
last. High pressure, dry conditions, and light winds will return
by Saturday, with the expectation of staying through early next
week.

We are keeping an eye on a potential system next week that could
bring a shift to easterly winds and cooling temps to the region,
and may also help to erode pesky smoke from valleys for a time.
More details will become available as this time period nears.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing in Idaho this
afternoon and simulated radar loops have a variety of solutions
for the progression of these storms during this afternoon. One
model does show the storms currently in northern Idaho to become
organized once the reach northwest Montana this afternoon, but
confidence is not very high for the amount of organization shown,
so there most likely will be scattered thunderstorms throughout
north-central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon and
evening. Any storm that may develop will contain gusty outflow
winds of 20-40 mph which will increase visibilities. A few storms
will linger through the overnight. Higher chances for
thunderstorms arrive on Wednesday as monsoon moisture arrives
ahead of cold front. Wildfire smoke remains a widespread impact
to the region and there will be little change until Thursday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday
     Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday
     Bitterroot...East Lolo...Flathead/Glacier Park...Salish and
     Kootenai Reservation...West Lolo.

     Red Flag Warning from midnight Wednesday night to 9 PM MDT
     Thursday Kootenai.

ID...     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM PDT Wednesday Clearwater/Nez
     Perce...Palouse/Hells Canyon.

&&

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