Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2017

...Heavy rain west central Montana, southwest Montana, and Lemhi
county tonight into Tuesday with significant stream and river
rises and possible flooding...

.DISCUSSION...
A strong low pressure system will continue to send waves of
precipitation into central Idaho, and southwest Montana this
afternoon, and spread north and westward into west-central Montana
this evening. These bands of moisture have produced heavy
rainfall, hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning activity as
they move northward. These convective showers will soon become a
large widespread rainfall event over north-central Idaho and
southwest / west-central Montana tonight into Tuesday, with
rainfall storm total amounts reaching 1 to 2 inches (and locally
higher). The major forecast concerns as this system moves through
will be for flash flood prone basins, rapid rises in small streams
and creeks, ponding on roadways, and main stem river level rises.
A Flood Watch is in effect for these locations through Tuesday.
In addition, snow levels will lower to around 6500-7500 feet
throughout the overnight period that will introduce heavy wet snow
for these higher elevations through Tuesday. Snow amounts of 3 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible in the
higher terrain tonight through Tuesday.

As the system tracks eastward, moisture and areas of moderate to
heavy precipitation will continue to wrap around into western
Montana and particularly along the Continental Divide on Tuesday.
Locations including Glacier National Park could see recreational
impacts due to increasing rainfall amounts and high elevation
snow.

The precipitation should come to a quick end late Tuesday and
Tuesday night except over Glacier Park where showers will linger.

A dry day is expected Wednesday with temperatures warming to near
normal values.

Despite the dry conditions on Wednesday, some larger rivers may
continue to rise and not hit peaks (from Monday night and
Tuesdays excessive rain event) until Wednesday or
Thursday...mainly the Salmon River, Clark Fork and Bitterroot
Rivers.

The next weather system is due Thursday with showers most areas
from the Camas Prairie, Orofino, and Hells Canyon eastward across
western Montana.

A relatively moist westerly flow and additional surges of moisture
is expected Friday into Saturday. However, no excessive
precipitation is expected. As such, the Thursday into Saturday
showers are not expected to add to stream/river flows.

In the longest term...high pressure may start bringing a warmer
and dry period later in the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Pleasant flying conditions will be replaced by
developing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and heavier,
widespread precipitation overnight. KSMN and KBTM have already started
seeing showers and thunderstorm activity this afternoon that will
continue overnight. Lightning and small hail will remain a threat
into this evening at these locations. Rain showers are likely to
start at KMSO after 13/0200z and grow continually heavier
overnight. Heavier precipitation will be possible at all three of
these airfields overnight leading to frequently reduced visibility
and significantly lowered ceilings. Meanwhile KGPI is unlikely to
experience any significant impacts from rain showers through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     Flood Watch through late Tuesday night Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

ID...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night Eastern Lemhi County...
     Western Lemhi County.

&&

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