Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
353 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...Overall the forecast of widespread rainfall, with
embedded areas of moderate intensity, is panning out quite well.
The only locations which didn't receive nearly as much rain as we
were previously forecasting are in Central Idaho. Thus, it would
appear the coarser, large scale models ultimately handled the
early parts of this dynamic storm better than the higher
resolution models. We have adjusted today's forecast to follow
these favored models. Though, to be fair, all the models are in
pretty good agreement with regards to the rest of this larger
storm system.

Forecast semantics aside, we are starting to see steady increases
on some main stem rivers near areas where over an inch of rain
has already fallen. We expect these rises to continue as small
streams and/or creeks in the areas of west central and southwest
Montana run swift and high as a result of both already fallen rain
and additional rainfall today. Various Flood Watches and Areal
Flood Advisories are presently in effect and we invite you to
visit our website for additional details. Of note, some additional
flood highlights may be necessary along the Continental Divide
for late this afternoon and tonight if precipitation is ultimately
heavier than presently forecast.

The final factor to discuss is snow. The latest webcam imagery
from Gilmore Summit (7000 ft) and Lone Pine (6300 ft) in Lemhi
County, Idaho are showing light snow with temperatures across the
area residing in the low to mid 60s. Light snow will continue to
fall across Lemhi County and the higher terrain of SW Montana,
especially under heavier areas of precipitation, throughout the
morning hours. But the overall impact of this snowfall should
remain minimal and quite localized. So no Winter Weather
Advisories are planned at this time.

The system is still expected to exit the region by Wednesday
morning. We have introduced areas of fog to many of the valleys
which will have seen over an inch of precipitation through the
duration of this storm. But temperatures Wednesday are likely to
warm back to near normal, despite the chance for fog or stratus.

Thursday will be a transitory day as the next quick moving system
enters from the west for Friday. As it does so, winds across
western Montana, particularly along the Divide and into SW
Montana, will become quite gusty Friday afternoon and evening.
While this may prevent rain from reaching some valley locations
due to downsloping effects, such as the Missoula/Bitterroot
valleys and into the Butte/Blackfoot valleys, Friday will be
plagued by on and off showers for most of the region.

The good news is: the weekend into early next week looks dry and
warm, with plenty of sunshine to go around!

&&

.AVIATION...Steady rain will continue throughout much of today,
leading to frequently reduced visibility and variably lowered
ceilings at KSMN, KBTM and KMSO. The worst conditions will
obviously occur under the strongest or heaviest areas of
rainfall, during which visibility will frequently be reduced to as
low as 3SM. Precipitation will begin later this morning at KGPI
and gradually grow stronger throughout the day. However, impacts
to ceilings and visibility will be a bit more limited. Areas of
fog and some dense fog are likely to develop late tonight, given
the vast amounts of precipitation already measured and likely to
occur today. Visibility could become particularly low at KBTM,
KSMN and KMSO by dawn on Wednesday, June 14th.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Flood Watch through late tonight Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     Flood Watch through late tonight Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

ID...Flood Watch through late tonight Eastern Lemhi County...Western
     Lemhi County.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
754 AM MDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     HEAVY RAIN       20 SE HAMILTON          46.04N 113.86W
06/13/2017  M2.51 INCH       RAVALLI            MT   MESONET

            24 HOUR TOTAL. GIRD POINT RAWS 6950 FEET ELEVATION.

&&

GIBSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
755 AM MDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PHILIPSBURG             46.33N 113.29W
06/13/2017  M2.67 INCH       GRANITE            MT   MESONET

            24 HOUR TOTAL. PHILIPSBURG RAWS. 5280 FEET.

&&

GIBSON