Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
236 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Thursday)...Another warm and muggy July
day! Scattered showers and thunderstorms producing very heavy
rainfall in short periods of time. These showers and storms will
persist into the early evening hours with some hanging on into the
night-time hours. Look for patchy fog to develop with some areas
of possibly dense fog particularly along area rivers and lakes.

The slow moving upper trough will translate slowly east putting
our forecast area under southwest flow. Will continue with a
persistence forecast for Thursday. Very little change in the
airmass currently over our region. Therefore, expecting showers
and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain for much of the day. We
are outlooked again by SPC for marginal risk of severe weather. So
a few storms by tomorrow afternoon may approach severe limits.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...A weak low pressure
and associated boundary will move through the area overnight
Thursday through Friday morning...with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible through mid day Friday. Behind the
front...flow will shift out of the NW with the cooler and drier air
filtering in through Friday. PW values drop to around 1.3 to
1.5...which is around the median average for this time of year.

Another weak boundary will move through overnight Friday through
Saturday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
beginning Friday afternoon...though chances are slightly lower than
Thursday. Models try to keep a cap over the area...so expecting less
coverage than any day of the previous week for any storms that are
strong enough to form. Saturday...a few showers and isolated thunder
could be left in the morning...with clearing expected in the
afternoon as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.

Sunday through Tuesday afternoon...high pressure will keep skies
mostly clear and dry weather across the TN Valley. Tuesday
afternoon...flow shifts to out of the SW bringing an increase in
moisture and warm air from the Gulf. A low pressure system across
the Great Lakes will sweep a frontal boundary across the area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday morning ahead of the front...with widespread
showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday afternoon into
overnight as the frontal boundary moves through the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  87  71  88 /  50  60  50  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  85  70  86 /  50  60  60  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  85  70  86 /  50  70  70  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  83  67  83 /  40  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

AC/JW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-061915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
301 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 /201 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms this afternoon may produce strong gusty winds up to
50 mph and locally heavy rainfall that may cause minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue across area
Thursday. Some of these storms may become strong with the
greatest threat being gusty winds up to 50 mph and locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
313 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

TNZ069-071>074-051945-
Blount Smoky Mountains TN-Sevier Smoky Mountains TN-Knox TN-
NW Blount TN-North Sevier TN-
313 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX...BLOUNT AND
WESTERN SEVIER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Louisville, or near Alcoa, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Maryville, Sevierville, Alcoa, Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge,
Louisville, Rockford, Eagleton Village, Smoky Mountains-Clingmans
Dome, Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area, Townsend, Walland, Kimberlin
Heights, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Seymour, Kodak, Happy Valley and
Wildwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8407 3601 8404 3601 8359 3598 8355
      3556 8354 3556 8359 3558 8361 3557 8363
      3557 8370 3556 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 267DEG 39KT 3581 8403

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
321 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

TNZ037>039-069-070-051945-
Jefferson TN-Hamblen TN-Union TN-Grainger TN-Knox TN-
321 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KNOX...NORTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN GRAINGER...SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND WEST
CENTRAL HAMBLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 320 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Plainview, or near Maynardville, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Jefferson City, Dandridge, Maynardville, Rutledge,
Plainview, New Market, Strawberry Plains, Blaine, Luttrell, Buffalo
Springs, Rose Hill, House Mountain State Park, Maloneyville, Mascot,
Piedmont, Joppa and Panther Creek State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 8373 3629 8373 3630 8342 3600 8341
      3600 8358 3604 8365 3603 8368 3600 8367
      3600 8384 3632 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 262DEG 28KT 3616 8379

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
351 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

NCZ060-061-052030-
Clay NC-Cherokee NC-
351 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHEROKEE AND CENTRAL CLAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Murphy, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andrews, Murphy, Hayesville, Nantahala Lake, Tusquitee, Topton,
Brasstown and Marble.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 8408 3523 8400 3522 8396 3526 8384
      3526 8380 3524 8374 3526 8371 3523 8369
      3520 8373 3519 8371 3517 8373 3515 8373
      3516 8365 3515 8364 3514 8366 3513 8362
      3513 8363 3511 8362 3509 8359 3499 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 250DEG 32KT 3513 8392

JLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
401 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

TNZ016-038>042-070-073-074-052045-
Cocke Smoky Mountains TN-Jefferson TN-Hamblen TN-Northwest Greene TN-
Sevier Smoky Mountains TN-Northwest Cocke TN-Grainger TN-
North Sevier TN-Hawkins TN-
401 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAWKINS...
JEFFERSON...COCKE...WESTERN GREENE...NORTHEASTERN GRAINGER...CENTRAL
SEVIER AND HAMBLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Bean Station to Pigeon Forge. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Morristown, Greeneville, Sevierville, Jefferson City, Newport,
Gatlinburg, Dandridge, Pigeon Forge, Bean Station, White Pine,
Baneberry, Parrottsville, Russellville, Smoky Mountains-Balsam
Mountain, Mosheim, Bulls Gap, Pittman Center, Baileyton, Caney Branch
and Del Rio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Douglas Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 8368 3571 8368 3571 8370 3638 8336
      3636 8277 3602 8293 3600 8296 3599 8295
      3579 8305 3577 8316 3573 8319 3572 8325
      3568 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 258DEG 40KT 3636 8329 3577 8357

EJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
403 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

TNZ099>101-052045-
West Polk TN-Bradley TN-Hamilton TN-
403 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRADLEY...WESTERN POLK AND
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harrison, or 11 miles southwest of Cleveland, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chattanooga, Cleveland, Benton, South Cleveland, East Cleveland,
Wildwood Lake, Harrison, Collegedale, Waterville, East Brainerd,
Conasauga, Parksville, Red Clay State Park, Harrison Bay State Park,
Flint Springs, Gap Springs, Tasso, Ooltewah, McDonald and Apison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8513 3519 8514 3525 8471 3524 8470
      3525 8470 3526 8459 3502 8457 3499 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 266DEG 23KT 3511 8505

DH