Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
236 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Thursday)...Another warm and muggy July
day! Scattered showers and thunderstorms producing very heavy
rainfall in short periods of time. These showers and storms will
persist into the early evening hours with some hanging on into the
night-time hours. Look for patchy fog to develop with some areas
of possibly dense fog particularly along area rivers and lakes.

The slow moving upper trough will translate slowly east putting
our forecast area under southwest flow. Will continue with a
persistence forecast for Thursday. Very little change in the
airmass currently over our region. Therefore, expecting showers
and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain for much of the day. We
are outlooked again by SPC for marginal risk of severe weather. So
a few storms by tomorrow afternoon may approach severe limits.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...A weak low pressure
and associated boundary will move through the area overnight
Thursday through Friday morning...with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible through mid day Friday. Behind the
front...flow will shift out of the NW with the cooler and drier air
filtering in through Friday. PW values drop to around 1.3 to
1.5...which is around the median average for this time of year.

Another weak boundary will move through overnight Friday through
Saturday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
beginning Friday afternoon...though chances are slightly lower than
Thursday. Models try to keep a cap over the area...so expecting less
coverage than any day of the previous week for any storms that are
strong enough to form. Saturday...a few showers and isolated thunder
could be left in the morning...with clearing expected in the
afternoon as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.

Sunday through Tuesday afternoon...high pressure will keep skies
mostly clear and dry weather across the TN Valley. Tuesday
afternoon...flow shifts to out of the SW bringing an increase in
moisture and warm air from the Gulf. A low pressure system across
the Great Lakes will sweep a frontal boundary across the area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday morning ahead of the front...with widespread
showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday afternoon into
overnight as the frontal boundary moves through the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  87  71  88 /  50  60  50  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  85  70  86 /  50  60  60  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  85  70  86 /  50  70  70  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  83  67  83 /  40  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

AC/JW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-061915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
301 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017 /201 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms this afternoon may produce strong gusty winds up to
50 mph and locally heavy rainfall that may cause minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue across area
Thursday. Some of these storms may become strong with the
greatest threat being gusty winds up to 50 mph and locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
240 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

TNZ036-067>069-071-051915-
Anderson TN-Roane TN-Loudon TN-Knox TN-NW Blount TN-
240 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOUDON...SOUTH CENTRAL
ANDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN KNOX...NORTHWESTERN BLOUNT AND EASTERN ROANE
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Loudon, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Maryville, Lenoir City, Alcoa, Kingston,
Loudon, Farragut, Louisville, Greenback, Friendsville, Philadelphia,
Paint Rock, Bradbury, Karns, Dearmond, Clover Hill, Tellico Village
and Bearden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 8430 3567 8432 3566 8433 3567 8435
      3566 8436 3566 8440 3567 8443 3566 8446
      3566 8450 3567 8450 3566 8451 3566 8454
      3597 8450 3601 8400 3565 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 266DEG 34KT 3579 8439

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
242 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

TNZ013-036-037-069-051915-
Anderson TN-Union TN-Campbell TN-Knox TN-
242 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON...
NORTHEASTERN KNOX...SOUTHEASTERN CAMPBELL AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL
315 PM EDT...

At 242 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clinton, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Clinton, Maynardville, Plainview, Halls,
Blaine, Lake City, Norris, Luttrell, Norris Dam State Park,
Andersonville, Paulette, Rose Hill, Big Ridge State Park, House
Mountain State Park, Disney, Maloneyville, Mascot and Powell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 8373 3620 8371 3618 8373 3617 8372
      3616 8373 3614 8372 3612 8370 3610 8369
      3609 8371 3608 8371 3606 8369 3600 8368
      3600 8417 3626 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 269DEG 32KT 3613 8413

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
249 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

NCZ060-TNZ085>087-101-102-051915-
Cherokee NC-West Polk TN-Northwest Monroe TN-East Polk TN-
Southeast Monroe TN-McMinn TN-
249 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEROKEE...POLK...
SOUTHEASTERN MCMINN AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

At 248 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Etowah to 10 miles west of Ducktown.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Madisonville, Benton, Ducktown, Etowah, Englewood, Tellico
Plains, William L. Davenport Refuge, Coker Creek, Violet, Big Frog
Mountain, Turtletown, Bullet Creek, Reliance, Copperhill, Archville,
Hiwassee Ocoee State Park, Mount Vernon, Hot House and Dentville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8465 3547 8461 3556 8421 3499 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 252DEG 24KT 3540 8454 3501 8458

JLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

TNZ014-037-038-051930-
Claiborne TN-Union TN-Grainger TN-
253 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CLAIBORNE...NORTHWESTERN
GRAINGER AND NORTHERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Maynardville, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Tazewell, Harrogate, Springdale, Arthur, Sandlick and Sharps
Chapel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 8365 3629 8357 3629 8373 3634 8373
      3630 8395 3639 8396 3640 8395 3639 8392
      3640 8391 3643 8390 3643 8392 3646 8393
      3652 8397 3654 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 266DEG 17KT 3633 8392

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
313 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

TNZ069-071>074-051945-
Blount Smoky Mountains TN-Sevier Smoky Mountains TN-Knox TN-
NW Blount TN-North Sevier TN-
313 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX...BLOUNT AND
WESTERN SEVIER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Louisville, or near Alcoa, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Maryville, Sevierville, Alcoa, Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge,
Louisville, Rockford, Eagleton Village, Smoky Mountains-Clingmans
Dome, Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area, Townsend, Walland, Kimberlin
Heights, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Seymour, Kodak, Happy Valley and
Wildwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8407 3601 8404 3601 8359 3598 8355
      3556 8354 3556 8359 3558 8361 3557 8363
      3557 8370 3556 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 267DEG 39KT 3581 8403

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
321 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

TNZ037>039-069-070-051945-
Jefferson TN-Hamblen TN-Union TN-Grainger TN-Knox TN-
321 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KNOX...NORTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN GRAINGER...SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND WEST
CENTRAL HAMBLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 320 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Plainview, or near Maynardville, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Jefferson City, Dandridge, Maynardville, Rutledge,
Plainview, New Market, Strawberry Plains, Blaine, Luttrell, Buffalo
Springs, Rose Hill, House Mountain State Park, Maloneyville, Mascot,
Piedmont, Joppa and Panther Creek State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 8373 3629 8373 3630 8342 3600 8341
      3600 8358 3604 8365 3603 8368 3600 8367
      3600 8384 3632 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 262DEG 28KT 3616 8379