Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
555 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

.updated for 00z taf discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

The short term concern remains convective/severe weather potential
into tonight and again into Monday.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis showing MLCAPE increasing to the south
with values to 2500 J/kg into south central MN. The cap is still
rather strong over the area, especially over the northern cwa.
Some breaks/clearing pushing northeast into the southeast metro.
We should see that end and gradually fill back in this evening.

With mid level lapse rates are 7 to 8 C/km and and deep layer shear
40 to 50kts we should see some potentially severe storms with hail
and strong winds if/when convection develops into south central MN
closer to old outflow and developing warm front. It will be
critical in the 00z-03z time frame if the mid level cap can be
eroded. Elevated convection to the north will work east early and
should fill in over west central Wisconsin this evening similar to
the . latest HRRR and other HIRES model solutions. We will
continue the likely pops to the east into the evening and then
trend all pops off to the east and south after 06z.

With the front along the MN/IA border into Monday we will continue
the lower end chance PoP forecast until a stronger forcing
mechanism returns perhaps late Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Tuesday through Wednesday...The stalled front which was
responsible for the severe weather of today will still be draped
over central MN into northern WI as a warm front at the start of
Tuesday. In addition, a large upper level low will be located over
MT/WY with solid SW flow across the WFO MPX coverage area.
Several trough axes rounding the southern periphery of the deep
low will help kick a low pressure center from northern CO into the
western Dakotas, which will help push the surface warm front
north. Moisture will be streaming into the area from the Deep
South with the SW flow, thus chances for precipitation will
continue for the area Tuesday and into Wednesday, during which the
associated cold front of this system will push through. Due to
continued high instability within the warm sector, strong jetting
at multiple levels and the approaching cold front, several periods
are available which could contain at least isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms (hence the Marginal to Slight Risks posted in
days 3 through 4). Highs will generally run from the mid 80s to
lower 90s Tuesday then in the 80s on Wednesday with lows in the
mid 60s to lower 70s Tuesday night. Factoring in dewpoints in the
60s and the deep moisture flow which will again push PWATs to
around 2 inches, the instability and deep moisture will be in
place along with strong deep shear and increasing low level
jetting to make all 3 modes of severe weather possible (hail,
damaging straight-line winds and tornadoes). In addition, pockets
or periods of heavy rain will be possible which could produce
isolated flooding.

Thursday through Sunday...The cold front of this system will have
pushed through the region by daybreak Thursday morning while the
upper level low will move into central Manitoba province on its
way northeast. Surface high pressure will move into the region
behind the front and generally prevail for the end of the week
through next weekend. Though there will be some minor upper level
waves moving through which may produce isolated showers or
thunderstorms during the latter half of the week, no organized
surface systems are evident which will mitigate precipitation
coverage and intensity. Best chances look to come late Friday into
Saturday morning when a nearby low pressure center from the
departed cold front, stalled over the central Plains, drifts north
to northern IA, but nothing significant. Temperatures will go on a
gradual cooling trend late week through the weekend, with highs
dropping to around 80 degrees and lows around 60 by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Radar showing a couple of areas of convection this evening. This
will mainly affect far easter taf sites through about 05z. Then
indications are stratus/fog will develop over nw WI around 06z an
drops southeast overnight. Brought some of this IFS cig/fog to
eastern taf sites for now. Confidence has increased in stratus
development, but still low confidence on how widespread it will
become. The 15z SREF probs did increase over the last 2 runs or
so. This should lift and burn off 14z-17z with a few cumulus
during the day. Should remain dry at taf sites through 00z Tue.

KMSP...
Looks like convection around a couple hours this evening...before
main show develops to the east/southeast. Expect some IFR cigs to
develop overnight as rains and clearing sky expected to draw in
some stratus/fog in from the northeast. Will trend to vfr after
14z and then mention prob30 late in taf period for psbl tsra as
front lifts north again.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR/MVFR with TSRA likely late. Wind S at 10-15kt.
Wed...VFR/MVFR with TSRA possible. Wind S-SW 5-10kt.
Thu...VFR. Wind W 5 to 10kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
121100-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Redevelopment of thunderstorms is possible this afternoon. A few
of the afternoon storms may also be severe with damaging winds,
large hail, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Chances for thunderstorms continue Monday into Wednesday with the
severe weather looking the most possible on Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night. Peak heat indices in the mid to upper 90s are also
expected on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GROVE CITY              45.15N 94.68W
06/11/2017                   MEEKER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

BORGHOFF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
557 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

MNZ060-062-112330-
Hennepin-Ramsey-
557 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN AND RAMSEY
COUNTIES...

At 557 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Richfield, or
near Minneapolis, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail is possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Roseville and Columbia Heights around 610 PM CDT.
  St. Paul, Maplewood, New Brighton and Arden Hills around 615 PM
  CDT.
  Oakdale, White Bear Lake and Vadnais Heights around 620 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Univ Of Mn Minneapolis
Campus, Gem Lake, Lake Phalen, Highland Park, Lauderdale, South
Minneapolis, Falcon Heights, North St. Paul, Mn State Fair and Little
Canada.

LAT...LON 4500 9298 4497 9299 4485 9333 4489 9339
      4513 9313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 230DEG 42KT 4490 9330

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
609 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 AM     HAIL             1 S CIRCLE PINES        45.13N 93.15W
06/11/2017  E1.75 INCH       ANOKA              MN   PUBLIC

            WINDOWS BROKEN DUE TO WIND DRIVEN HAIL.

&&

BORGHOFF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
617 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

WIZ023-025-112345-
St. Croix-Dunn-
617 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN DUNN AND EAST CENTRAL
ST. CROIX COUNTIES...

At 617 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Downing, or 15
miles northwest of Menomonie, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Wheeler around 630 PM CDT.
  Ridgeland around 635 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Wilson, Connorsville,
Downing, Hersey, Emerald and Sand Creek.

This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 26 and
28.

LAT...LON 4505 9166 4492 9225 4508 9229 4521 9192
      4521 9167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 241DEG 47KT 4505 9214

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             4 SSE MINNEAPOLIS       44.93N 93.23W
06/11/2017  E1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   PUBLIC

            PHOTO AVAILABLE ON TWITTER.

&&

AMK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

WIZ024-025-120030-
Pierce-Dunn-
644 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PIERCE AND CENTRAL
DUNN COUNTIES...

At 644 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Elmwood, or 17
miles west of Menomonie, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Dime size hail is possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Menomonie around 700 PM CDT.
  Colfax around 715 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Cedar Falls,
Downsville, Weston, El Paso, Tainter Lake, Menomonie Airport and
Hoffman Hills Rec Area.

This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 33 and
56.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4467 9230 4481 9238 4486 9227 4485 9216
      4491 9214 4512 9166 4490 9164 4484 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 241DEG 46KT 4480 9223

BORGHOFF