Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Mobile, AL

250 
WWUS54 KMOB 220535
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

ALC023-MSC153-220545-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0058.000000T0000Z-170122T0600Z/
Choctaw AL-Wayne MS-
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW AND
NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 AM CST for southwestern
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3184 8816 3182 8818 3180 8818 3170 8842
      3170 8846 3168 8846 3158 8869 3169 8875
      3188 8854 3190 8847 3194 8847 3204 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 235DEG 34KT 3183 8840 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
549 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...MVFR cigs will continue to fill in across the region
this evening. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA will develop northward
across the area this evening, some of which will become severe with
damaging winds, large hail and possibly a few tornadoes. Will keep
TSRA mention into the local TAFs, and amend as necessary. Cold front
pushes through Sun. with winds turning SW/W and becoming gusty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Much of our area has had time to
recover from this morning's convection, as the associated surface
boundary sank into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite
imagery this afternoon shows the boundary again moving northward,
partially in response to a shortwave trough diving into North Texas
late this afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will
develop as the boundary moves northward (at approximately 10 MPH)
into the region this evening.

Current mesoanalysis indicates almost 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE close to
the coast. However, there is also still a fair amount of convective
inhibition. Expect the inhibition to decrease heading into the
evening hours as the left exit region of a 250mb jet moves into the
region. MLCAPE values could increase to the 1500-2000 J/kg range
with very steep lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 degrees C/km in the
700-500mb layer. These parameters, combined with impressive low-
level kinematic fields associated with the strengthening low-
level jet, will result in a severe weather risk for tonight.

Right now, it looks like the greatest risk of severe storms across
most of our area will occur between 7 pm and midnight. All types of
severe weather may be seen, with large hail, damaging winds, and
strong tornadoes possible. The severe weather risk should wane after
midnight as the best synoptic scale forcing/thermodynamic fields
move out of our area. However, showers and thunderstorms will
likely continue through much of the night.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to end from the west starting
late tonight and continuing through Sunday morning as a cold front
moves across the region. An isolated to scattered smattering of
showers may continue through much of the day as the upper low
moves across the Southeast. /Butts/

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...Convective
activity tapers off Sunday night as the surface low lifts northeast
up the Atlantic coast and away from the area. Lows Sunday night will
range from upper 40's to mid 50's from northwest to southeast,
respectively, as drier air at the surface begins to move into the
forecast area from the west. Even as the surface low lifts away from
the region, the large expanse of cyclonic flow around it will
continue to transport low-level moisture from the Atlantic around the
system and into the central Gulf coast region. As a result, low
clouds in the wrap around region of the cyclone are expected to
linger over the forecast area through Monday before clearing out from
west to east Monday night. Cooler afternoon highs are expected
Monday, only reaching the upper 50's inland to low 60's near the
coast. Monday night lows will be much cooler than previous nights as
skies clear and dewpoints drop, with temps expected to dip into the
upper 30's inland to mid 40's near the coast. Surface high pressure
then builds in from the west Tuesday with sunshine and pleasant
daytime temperatures in the mid 60's expected areawide. Overnight
lows Tuesday night will warm some compared to Monday night, ranging
from low 50's inland to upper 50's near the coast as moisture returns
to the area ahead of the next approaching front. /Cermak/

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The surface ridge
continues off to the east Wednesday as another trough digs into the
central CONUS and the next cold front approaches the forecast area
from the west. Ahead of this next system, southerly flow will mean
an increase in humidity and temperatures rebounding back up into the
low to mid 70's areawide Wednesday afternoon. The front is then
progged to pass through the forecast area sometime Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning, bringing with it a chance for showers
across the area. A cool, dry post-frontal airmass then settles over
the region as a large upper-level area of low pressure over eastern
Canada sets up zonal flow over the central Gulf states. Temperatures
will range from the mid 50's inland to upper 50's near the coast each
afternoon and mid 30's inland to low 40's near the coast each night
from Thursday into early next weekend. /Cermak/

MARINE...Marine conditions will deteriorate tonight ahead of the
approaching cold front. Expect periods of showers and thunderstorms,
some likely severe, to continue through much of the night. A strong
southerly flow ahead of the front will veer to the west/northwest in
wake of the front. Increasing winds and building seas are expected,
and I've upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the Gulf of
Mexico waters Sunday night and Monday. Marine conditions should then
start improving Monday night and continue through mid-week. /Butts/

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ633>635.

     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for
     GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     Gale Watch Monday morning for GMZ670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221130-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
528 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...MAINLY
WEST OF I-65 THROUGH AROUND 9 AM...THEN EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO THE EAST OF I-65 AND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
TODAY, WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WEST OF A GROVE
HILL...BAY MINETTE...GULF SHORES LINE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM. TORNADO
THREAT WILL REMAIN...BUT LESSEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST.
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY
WITH ANY OF THE STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FINAL APPROACHING FRONT WILL POSSIBLY RE-
INITIATE STORMS EAST OF I-65 IN ALABAMA AND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP CONDITIONS
WILL STILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL A POSSIBILITY.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE SEE MORE ON THE SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS AND TIMING...AND ALSO FLOODING
IMPACTS ON OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS 70 MPH OR HIGHER WILL PERSIST
EARLY. STORMS ENDING LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...FOR SUSTAINED 25 MPH WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...IMPROVING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS WINDS SUBSIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE
NEEDED IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS EARLY SUNDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-221130-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
528 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD LOCALLY CONTAIN LARGE DAMAGING HAIL
AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS 70 MPH OR HIGHER...PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER WATER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE
MORE ON THE IMPACTS AND TIMING AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH GALE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A GALE WATCH IN EFFECT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
931 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     HAIL             WALNUT HILL             30.89N 87.51W
01/21/2017  M2.00 INCH       ESCAMBIA           FL   NEWSPAPER

            REPORTS OF MEASURED 2 INCH HAIL NEAR WALNUT HILL.

&&

RROGERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
947 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BREWTON                 31.12N 87.07W
01/21/2017                   ESCAMBIA           AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE FELL ON COMMERCIAL BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN BREWTON.
            TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR

&&

RROGERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1005 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             BEAUMONT                31.17N 88.92W
01/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       PERRY              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BEAUMONT WITH THUNDERSTORM
            PASSAGE. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR

&&

RROGERS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1016 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

ALZ051>060-262-220515-
Butler AL-Monroe AL-Crenshaw AL-Covington AL-Clarke AL-Escambia AL-
Conecuh AL-Washington AL-Wilcox AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Choctaw AL-
1016 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
CONECUH...NORTH CENTRAL BALDWIN...MONROE...CRENSHAW...COVINGTON...
CENTRAL CHOCTAW...WILCOX...BUTLER...WASHINGTON...ESCAMBIA AND CLARKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CST...

At 1015 PM CST, a cluster of strong thunderstorms were located
alongand just south of Highway 84 over southwest Alabama. It was
expanding while moving to the northeast at 55 to 60 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Greenville, Monroeville, Opp, Brewton, Jackson,
Thomasville, Evergreen, Luverne, Camden, Florala, Butler, Frisco
City, Grove Hill, Chatom, McCullough, Peterman, Saint Stephens,
Wagarville and Leroy.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 AM CST for south central
and southwestern Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3209 8805 3199 8810 3200 8763 3213 8762
      3213 8752 3227 8751 3227 8744 3205 8718
      3204 8686 3196 8686 3196 8641 3205 8639
      3205 8630 3197 8630 3196 8618 3099 8619
      3101 8685 3122 8844 3173 8846 3231 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 211DEG 50KT 3181 8736

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1027 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

ALZ052-261-MSZ075-076-078-079-220515-
Mobile Inland AL-Washington AL-Stone MS-Perry MS-Greene MS-George MS-
1027 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN
GEORGE...SOUTHERN GREENE...SOUTHEASTERN PERRY AND NORTHEASTERN STONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CST...

At 1027 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles south of
McLain, or 16 miles west of Lucedale, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leakesville, Deer Park and Fruitdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 AM CST for southwestern
Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3083 8888 3098 8900 3142 8831 3119 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 236DEG 45KT 3095 8887

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1105 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

ALZ051-MSZ067-220545-
Choctaw AL-Wayne MS-
1105 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM
CST...

At 1104 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located over Waynesboro,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Clara, Silas and Gilbertown.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 AM CST for southwestern
Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3180 8820 3177 8824 3170 8840 3170 8846
      3167 8846 3155 8873 3169 8880 3187 8853
      3196 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 233DEG 31KT 3166 8867