Areal Flood Warning 18, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1014 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...Cleaning up forecast package as we are dropping all
tropical warnings (wind and surge)at this time, as well as the
remaining flash flood watch. Winds are still gusting up to around
35 mph or so in some locations, especially along the coast, but
sustained winds have steadily decreased and should continue to do
so, therefore we see no necessity for a Wind Advisory. Most of the
heavy rain has moved on off to the east of our forecast area, but
still lingers somewhat down around Okaloosa county Florida but
will be ending there soon. So all Flash Flood Warnings have now
expired. Also allowed the Tornado Watch that was in effect for
eastern counties to expire at 10am. The only hazards that remain
are along the coast, where residual effects include high surf and
elevated rip current risks along the beaches. Tides also remain
around 2 to 3 feet above expected levels, but will gradually be
lowering through the course of the afternoon. Updated products are
being transmitted now. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...As Nate continues to track inland, expect lingering
showers through the afternoon hours over the western Florida
panhandle and interior southern Alabama. Moderate westerly winds
this afternoon (with frequent higher gusts in and around the
showers) gradually weaken and shift to more southerly tonight.
Expect the MVFR to locally IFR cigs to continue through the day.
Isolated to scattered showers then continue overnight tonight,
primarily closer to the coast, with patchy MVFR/IFR fog possible
outside of the showers. /49

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...KMOB radar is detecting
that the center of Tropical Storm Nate has crossed over the
Mississippi / Alabama state line into northern Washington county,
AL. Nate is forecast to continue moving north-northeast near 23
MPH across the northern portion of the forecast area early this
morning, approaching central Alabama. Tropical storm force winds
or frequent gusts to near tropical storm force will continue into
the early morning hours near the center of Tropical Storm Nate and
points eastward. The strong winds will continue to decrease
throughout the day, and the Tropical Storm Warning currently in
effect will likley be cancelled at 10 AM this morning.

Maximum storm surge between 5 to 8 feet across southwest Alabama
peaked overnight with the high tide, and water levels will
continue to decrease through tonight as Nate moving quickly away
from the area. Heavy rain bands across the eastern portion of the
forecast area will gradually move east, and the Flash Flood Watch
will likely be discontinued by noon.

The ongoing high surf conditions and coastal flooding will improve
throughout the day, however a high risk of rip currents will
persist through Monday evening due to long period swell that will
continue to approach the coast from the south.

High temperature today will range from 80 to 85 degrees. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid 70s, except for the upper
70s at the beaches. /22

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...An upper level low
pressure area will move northeast from the desert southwest to the
midwest states Monday and Tuesday, while a large upper high
pressure area over the western Atlantic moves westward over the
region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
persist on Monday, followed by isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. Dry conditions will return
Tuesday night.

High temperature Monday and Tuesday will range from 84 to 88
degrees. Low temperatures Monday night will range from 71 to 75
degrees, lowering slightly to between 68 to 73 degrees Tuesday
night./22

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The large upper high
pressure area will persist over the region through the long term.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front approaches the region from the north
Wednesday morning will move across the forecast area and off the
coast Wednesday night. Surface high pressure will then build in
from the north across the southeast conus through the remainder
of the long term. Isolated to low-end scattered showers and
thunderstorms will linger through mid week, followed by dry
conditions Thursday night through Friday night. /22

MARINE...Tropical Storm Nate will continue to move north-
northeast across the southeast states through tonight. The strong
onshore winds will continue to decrease through tonight, with seas
gradually subsiding. The Tropical Storm Warning currently in effect
will likley be cancelled at 10 AM this morning. A light onshore flow
on Monday and Tuesday will turn to the east by midweek as a surface
ridge of high pressure builds north of the coast. A weak cold front
will then move through the area Wednesday night, followed by a light
offshore flow through the remainder of the week. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ632-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
628 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 WNW BAY MINETTE       30.89N 87.79W
10/08/2017                   BALDWIN            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN IN BAY MINETTE.

0529 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 E DESTIN              30.41N 86.46W
10/08/2017                   OKALOOSA           FL   ASOS

            THE DESTIN ASOS REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH.

0540 AM     TROPICAL STORM   GRAND BAY               30.48N 88.34W
10/08/2017                   MOBILE             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN GRAND BAY. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

CL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
659 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     STORM SURGE      2 SW PENSACOLA          30.40N 87.22W
10/08/2017  M3.10 FT         ESCAMBIA           FL   MESONET

            TIDAL GAUGE AT PENSACOLA REPORTS 3.1 FT MHHW.

0600 AM     TROPICAL STORM   JACKSON                 31.51N 87.89W
10/08/2017                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF DEPOT ROAD AND COMMERCE
            STREET IN JACKSON.

0600 AM     TROPICAL STORM   GROVE HILL              31.71N 87.78W
10/08/2017                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLARKE COUNTY EMA REPORTS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
            GROVE HILL.

&&

CL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
711 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     TROPICAL STORM   WHATELY                 31.65N 87.71W
10/08/2017                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLARKE COUNTY EMA RELAYED A REPORT THAT A TREE FELL ON A
            HOUSE AND TWO VEHICLES IN WHATLEY.

&&

CL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
753 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     TROPICAL STORM   THOMASVILLE             31.91N 87.74W
10/08/2017                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THOMASVILLE.

&&

CL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
928 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     STORM SURGE      1 N CHICKASAW           30.78N 88.07W
10/08/2017  U0.00 FT         MOBILE             AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MAJOR FLOODING REPORTED NEAR A BOAT LAUNCH AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF CHICKASAW CREEK AND HWY 43.

&&

DJOHNSON