Tropical Storm Warning 1011, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
501 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

..Center of Hurricane Irma will Lift Northwest of the Area Today...

Today...After a relentless pounding, in the form of damaging
hurricane force gusts, numerous waterspouts/tornadoes and excessive
rainfall, Irma will gradually loosen its grip on east central
Florida as it lifts into southern Georgia. Gusts to hurricane
force will linger in the north half this morning so the Hurricane
Warning will continue, while Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast
will have a Tropical Storm Warning.

High rain chances will shift north with Irma along with an extensive
cloud shield. Though some drier air has been wrapping in behind the
system, daytime heating should reinvigorate some rainbands to the
south of Irma. QPF has dropped precipitously, so will cancel the Flood
Watch.

MOS PoPs are 40 to 50 percent and don't plan to deviate much from
it. High temps will get back close to 90 from Okeechobee to the
Treasure Coast and south Brevard. North sections should have the
most cloudiness so highs look to continue below normal in the
lower/mid 80s.

Tonight-Tue...Drier air will continue to wrap in behind Irma, with
precipitable water values falling to 1 to 1.25 inches on Tue.  Will
hold onto small shower chances this evening, but the forecast looks
dry after that.  High temps will reach to around 90.

Wednesday-Monday...Low level ridge, which was suppressed well to the
south, will lift gradually back north Wed, with southerly flow
elevating precipitable water values back to average or greater.  The
ridge is forecast to shift north of the area late in the week as
Tropical Cyclone Jose meanders well to our east.  This system may
cause storm struck Floridians much angst during this meandering
process, but the models have been showing it starting to lift north
around 75 longitude next weekend.  Increased moisture will bring
PoPs back to normal (30-40%), except for a day or two above normal,
mainly for interior sections as onshore winds develop.  Highs should
mainly be in the upper 80s at the coast and lower 90s inland.  It
will feel muggy again as dew points rise back into the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions prohibiting most flight operations will continue this
morning, then weather conditions will gradually improve by this
afternoon as Irma lifts well to our north. Breezy southwest winds
will still be any issue though, with gusts to around 30 mph
lingering until late day. Concentrated coverage of squalls has
lifted north of the terminals, but scattered showers are expected
to form during daytime heating and there is also a slight chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Very hazardous boating conditions will continue
today in the wake of Irma, though winds and seas will be in steady
decline. The Hurricane Warning will continue north of Sebastian
Inlet, while from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet we will have a
Tropical Storm Warning. Southwest winds will fall below 20 knots
this evening and seas below 10 feet.

Tuesday-Friday...A weak high pressure ridge will gradually build
north, reaching north of the waters late in the week.  Winds will
generally be 10 knots or less, with a variable direction until late
week when an onshore gradient wind develops. Seas will diminish
to around 4 feet Wed but we'll have to watch for an increasing
east swell late in the week from Tropical Cyclone Jose.

&&

.CLIMATE...With impacts from Hurricane Irma on Sunday, all the
climate sites in east central Florida set daily rainfall records,
while 3 set ALL TIME daily rainfall records.

Daytona Beach: 4.10 inches; Daily record
Fort Pierce: 13.08 inches; Daily and ALL TIME record (since 1901)
Melbourne: 10.23 in; Daily and ALL TIME record (since 1937)
Orlando: 6.61 in; Daily record
Sanford: 9.24 in; Daily and ALL TIME record (since 1948)

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Very heavy rainfall that has fallen over the middle St Johns
River Basin from rain bands associated with Hurricane Irma has
resulted in the river levels rising steadily. The levels have
already risen and are forecast to peak at Minor Flood Stage near
Cocoa and Moderate Flood Stage near Astor, and are forecast to
rise to Minor Flood Stage near Deland, and Moderate Flood Stage
Above Lake Harney near Geneva into mid-week.

Heavy rain bands from Irma have also led to quick rises at both the
Little Wekiva River and Shingle Creek basins, with Shingle Creek
already in Minor Flood Stage and Little Wekiva River forecast to
reach Minor Flood Stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  89  73 /  60  20  10  10
MCO  82  73  89  73 /  60  20  10  10
MLB  89  75  90  75 /  50  20  10  10
VRB  90  73  90  74 /  50  20  10  10
LEE  81  73  89  74 /  60  20  10  10
SFB  82  73  89  74 /  60  20  10  10
ORL  82  74  89  74 /  60  20  10  10
FPR  90  73  90  73 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for Indian River-Martin-Okeechobee-St.
     Lucie.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Volusia County-Inland Volusia
     County-Northern Brevard County-Northern Lake County-Orange-
     Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-Southern Lake
     County.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20
     nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Hurricane Warning for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County
     Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line
     20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-
     20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60
     nm.

&&

Lascody/Cristaldi/Bragaw/Weitlich/Smith/Sharp/Guseman

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