Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
343 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight...Convection along the east
coast sea breeze was later developing than yesterday south of Cape
Canaveral. This has left most of the coastal sections dry. Weak
moisture convergence north of low level ridge axis was producing
more congested cumulus from the Cape northward and inland. Expect
scattered coverage of storms over interior sections when boundary
interactions increase late this afternoon and into the evening. A
few strong storms with frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
40-50 mph and 2-3 inch downpours will be possible.

There is a small chance for push back to the coast as the Canaveral
wind profilers showed westerly winds 10-15 knots in the steering
levels.

Thursday...High pressure ridge will remain prominent over the
western Atlantic with an axis extending to central Florida.  Flow
aloft will remain westerly and looks unperturbed, while steering
level flow is shown weakening slightly.  The GFS shows precipitable
water starting off 1.6 to 1.8 inches and 500 mb temps -8 to -9
celsius, not a lot different than today.  These parameters point to
scattered coverage, but MOS POPs inland are in the likely range.
There may be some moist air advection occurring through the day
though, so do not plan to change our current forecast which has
40-50% coastal, and 60% interior POPs.

Friday-Wednesday...Models in good agreement that moisture levels
will continue to support scattered to at times numerous storms each
afternoon. Axis of subtropical high pressure ridge early in the
period will extend into central Florida, then weakening and a
shunting south will occur early next week as a frontal trough drops
into the southeast states.  Weak steering level winds late in the
week and over the weekend will continue to favor the highest
coverage of afternoon and evening storms across interior sections.
As the ridge axis gets suppressed to the south early next week,
coastal sections should get back into a higher coverage of the
diurnal convection. The models suggest a slug of tropical moisture
advecting in from the Gulf of Mexico, so well above normal POPs
are possible early-mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Coverage so far of showers/storms has been less than
24 hours ago. Still expect numerous boundary interactions to occur
late this afternoon-early evening over the interior, which will
ramp up the coverage/intensity of storms. Latest indications are
that the greatest chance for strong storms will at KISM-KMCO-
KSFB. The models show higher moisture on Thu, so would expect
convection to initiate a little sooner than today, with scattered
to numerous showers/storms occurring over the interior in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...No wind or sea problems with south winds around 10 knots
and seas 2 feet or less. There's a low chance for storms pushing
off the coast through evening, especially north of Sebastian
Inlet. Also expect isolated late night storms over the Gulf Stream.

Thursday-Monday...High pressure will remain near or over the waters,
supporting wind speeds around 10 knots. Seas expected to be 2-3 feet
most of the time. Scattered storms will continue each afternoon,
mainly across inland areas. There is a chance for offshore moving
storms on Mon. Additionally, more night/morning showers and storms
are expected especially in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  89  74  85 /  20  40  40  50
MCO  73  92  73  87 /  30  60  40  60
MLB  75  89  76  85 /  30  40  40  50
VRB  76  89  75  85 /  20  30  40  50
LEE  74  93  74  87 /  20  60  40  60
SFB  73  93  74  87 /  30  60  40  60
ORL  73  92  74  87 /  30  60  40  60
FPR  75  90  75  86 /  20  30  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Lascody
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...Bragaw & Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
551 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-312300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
551 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Increasing moisture and additional instability should produce a
slightly higher coverage of storms this afternoon and early
evening. Scattered lightning storms should develop along the east
and west coast sea breezes early this afternoon as they push
inland across the coastal counties. Then a collision should occur
late in the day between 5 and 7 pm near the I 4 corridor.
Conditions are favorable for a few strong storms to develop
containing frequent lightning strikes, downburst winds up to 50
mph and small hail. Very heavy rain accumulating 2 to 3 inches in
a short period of time may cause temporary flooding especially in
urban areas.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered lightning storms over land should push back across the
intracoastal waters and nearshore Atlantic this afternoon and
early evening, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. Gusty outflow
winds near 35 knots will be possible along with dangerous
lightning strikes. Steering flow is toward the northeast around
15 mph but some storm motions will be erratic with propagation
along boundaries.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
While a few areas saw heavy rain yesterday, continued dry
vegetation in many areas will produce a high fire danger of
wildfire spread.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A typical convective season pattern is expected through the
weekend with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening lightning
storms. The primary hazards will be frequent lightning strikes,
gusty downburst winds and heavy rainfall on both land and water.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

Kelly

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
521 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

FLZ045-046-053-144-312215-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-Southern Lake County FL-
521 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEMINOLE...SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE...
ORANGE AND WESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT, Doppler radar was showing multiple storm outflow
boundaries as well as inland moving sea breeze boundaries from the
east and west coasts. Over the next few hours these boundaries will
collide and promote rapid storm development. A few storms could be
severe.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
some of these storms. Storm movement will be slow and chaotic.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Sanford, Apopka and Altamonte Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall will be possible with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning may occur with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These expected storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local
radio stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2877 8195 2878 8142 2881 8134 2878 8118
      2880 8107 2765 8108 2765 8113 2782 8121
      2786 8130 2792 8131 2806 8146 2801 8138
      2808 8135 2809 8145 2814 8146 2814 8152
      2826 8156 2826 8166 2835 8166 2835 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 312DEG 2KT 2851 8150

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