Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
343 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight...Convection along the east
coast sea breeze was later developing than yesterday south of Cape
Canaveral. This has left most of the coastal sections dry. Weak
moisture convergence north of low level ridge axis was producing
more congested cumulus from the Cape northward and inland. Expect
scattered coverage of storms over interior sections when boundary
interactions increase late this afternoon and into the evening. A
few strong storms with frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
40-50 mph and 2-3 inch downpours will be possible.

There is a small chance for push back to the coast as the Canaveral
wind profilers showed westerly winds 10-15 knots in the steering
levels.

Thursday...High pressure ridge will remain prominent over the
western Atlantic with an axis extending to central Florida.  Flow
aloft will remain westerly and looks unperturbed, while steering
level flow is shown weakening slightly.  The GFS shows precipitable
water starting off 1.6 to 1.8 inches and 500 mb temps -8 to -9
celsius, not a lot different than today.  These parameters point to
scattered coverage, but MOS POPs inland are in the likely range.
There may be some moist air advection occurring through the day
though, so do not plan to change our current forecast which has
40-50% coastal, and 60% interior POPs.

Friday-Wednesday...Models in good agreement that moisture levels
will continue to support scattered to at times numerous storms each
afternoon. Axis of subtropical high pressure ridge early in the
period will extend into central Florida, then weakening and a
shunting south will occur early next week as a frontal trough drops
into the southeast states.  Weak steering level winds late in the
week and over the weekend will continue to favor the highest
coverage of afternoon and evening storms across interior sections.
As the ridge axis gets suppressed to the south early next week,
coastal sections should get back into a higher coverage of the
diurnal convection. The models suggest a slug of tropical moisture
advecting in from the Gulf of Mexico, so well above normal POPs
are possible early-mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Coverage so far of showers/storms has been less than
24 hours ago. Still expect numerous boundary interactions to occur
late this afternoon-early evening over the interior, which will
ramp up the coverage/intensity of storms. Latest indications are
that the greatest chance for strong storms will at KISM-KMCO-
KSFB. The models show higher moisture on Thu, so would expect
convection to initiate a little sooner than today, with scattered
to numerous showers/storms occurring over the interior in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...No wind or sea problems with south winds around 10 knots
and seas 2 feet or less. There's a low chance for storms pushing
off the coast through evening, especially north of Sebastian
Inlet. Also expect isolated late night storms over the Gulf Stream.

Thursday-Monday...High pressure will remain near or over the waters,
supporting wind speeds around 10 knots. Seas expected to be 2-3 feet
most of the time. Scattered storms will continue each afternoon,
mainly across inland areas. There is a chance for offshore moving
storms on Mon. Additionally, more night/morning showers and storms
are expected especially in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  89  74  85 /  20  40  40  50
MCO  73  92  73  87 /  30  60  40  60
MLB  75  89  76  85 /  30  40  40  50
VRB  76  89  75  85 /  20  30  40  50
LEE  74  93  74  87 /  20  60  40  60
SFB  73  93  74  87 /  30  60  40  60
ORL  73  92  74  87 /  30  60  40  60
FPR  75  90  75  86 /  20  30  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Lascody
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...Bragaw & Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
551 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-312300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
551 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Increasing moisture and additional instability should produce a
slightly higher coverage of storms this afternoon and early
evening. Scattered lightning storms should develop along the east
and west coast sea breezes early this afternoon as they push
inland across the coastal counties. Then a collision should occur
late in the day between 5 and 7 pm near the I 4 corridor.
Conditions are favorable for a few strong storms to develop
containing frequent lightning strikes, downburst winds up to 50
mph and small hail. Very heavy rain accumulating 2 to 3 inches in
a short period of time may cause temporary flooding especially in
urban areas.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered lightning storms over land should push back across the
intracoastal waters and nearshore Atlantic this afternoon and
early evening, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. Gusty outflow
winds near 35 knots will be possible along with dangerous
lightning strikes. Steering flow is toward the northeast around
15 mph but some storm motions will be erratic with propagation
along boundaries.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
While a few areas saw heavy rain yesterday, continued dry
vegetation in many areas will produce a high fire danger of
wildfire spread.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A typical convective season pattern is expected through the
weekend with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening lightning
storms. The primary hazards will be frequent lightning strikes,
gusty downburst winds and heavy rainfall on both land and water.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
630 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

FLZ064-312315-
Martin FL-
630 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM EDT...

At 630 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
J And S Fish Camp. This storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Indiantown and J And S Fish Camp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2700 8062 2708 8066 2711 8066 2712 8068
      2713 8068 2716 8067 2711 8045 2696 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 294DEG 1KT 2709 8060

Sedlock

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
635 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     TSTM WND GST     ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPO 28.55N 81.34W
05/31/2017  M40 MPH          ORANGE             FL   ASOS

&&

JRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
643 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

FLZ046-312330-
Seminole FL-
643 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEMINOLE COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM
EDT...

At 642 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Winter Park, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Altamonte Springs, Oviedo, Winter Springs and Casselberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2879 8140 2877 8106 2875 8106 2872 8103
      2871 8104 2869 8102 2868 8102 2866 8101
      2865 8100 2863 8101 2861 8099 2861 8133
      2864 8133 2864 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 207DEG 13KT 2858 8131

Sedlock

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
653 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TSTM WND GST     ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPO 28.55N 81.34W
05/31/2017  M45 MPH          ORANGE             FL   ASOS

&&

JRS

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