Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
409 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Combination of outflow pushing SW across the area intersecting
with the east coast sea breeze will continue to produce scattered
lightning storms for the next few hours. Northern sections have
largely been worked over and the strong divergence aloft noted
earlier has weakened considerably as expected. The focus for
strong storms will be over southern sections where significantly
more heating occurred along with the aforementioned boundary
collisions. Added a small shower chance for the late evening
(after 8 pm) for lingering activity then quiet conditions expected
overnight.

Temperatures will again be mild overnight with lows in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Wednesday...The front will remain to our north so we will be in
the warm sector with S/SW flow producing near record highs in the
lower 90s (see below). Some drier air will lift north so rain
chances will be very low and have no mentionable rain chances.

.previous discussion...

Wed night-Saturday...Midwest H50 low lifts northeast into the
lower Great Lakes through Thursday, then slides farther northeast
and elongates into a nearly full latitude trough extending from
the Canadian Maritimes/Maine along the eastern seaboard into
Florida by Saturday. An attendant surface low rides beneath the
parent H50 system, dragging a cold front through Florida Thursday
morning into the afternoon. The front will be preceded by a fast
moving band of scattered showers and a few storms, which will
reach the northern CWA around midnight, drop south across the
remainder of the CWA throughout the morning, pushing south of Lake
Okeechobee by late afternoon.

Forecast continues to paint highest pops (50) NW of I-4 Wednesday
night, 30-40 central, and 20 far south. Went with 30 areawide for
Thursday, but could easily see these numbers being a little lower
(AOB 20) across the north, and a bit higher (40-ish) near Lake
Okeechobee depending on speed of movement. Dry weather will then
take hold into the weekend.

Turning much cooler from Thursday night through Saturday as post
frontal high pressure builds southward across Florida.

Sunday-Tuesday...Forecast remains dry through the extended range
as a sharp positively tilted mid level ridge builds from the GOMEX
across Florida early next week. Feature will get squeezed on both
sides by troughs on either side, but still hold firm. The large
eastern CONUS surface high responsible for the antecedent cool
weather will elongate ENE into/across the western Atlantic,
resulting in developing onshore (ENE to E) flow and moderating
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered storms with gusty downburst winds should diminish by
sunset with some lingering SHRA possible into the evening. Patchy
stratus possible around daybreak but kept all TAFs in VFR. On Wed,
area will remain in the warm sector with S/SW winds 10 knots with
low rain/storm chances.

&&

.MARINE...

Wed-Sat (previous)...Late night/early morning lull will be brief
as the moderate S-SSW breeze early Wednesday freshens once again
to 15-20KT out of the SW from late afternoon through Wednesday
night ahead of a fast-moving cold front. A fresh westerly breeze
of 20-25KT Thursday will shift to northwest Friday, continuing the
poor to hazardous conditions through Friday, with both winds and
seas gradually subsiding Saturday.

Considerable offshore component to wind flow for this event will
keep peak seas around 6 to perhaps 7 feet, even with peak speeds
reaching ~25KT. Since winds will be well into SCA criteria, we'll
probably wind up with "SCA for seas" headlines as the event draws
closer.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Current High and Warm Low Temperature Records for the 4th and 5th:

LOC  DATE   HI-MAX   HI-MIN
DAB 4-Apr  93 1974  70 1991
MCO 4-Apr  93 1918  69 1974
MLB 4-Apr  92 1977  71 1974
VRB 4-Apr  92 2012  73 1960

DAB 5-Apr  90 1957  70 1954
MCO 5-Apr  91 1999  68 1957
MLB 5-Apr  91 1977  72 1957
VRB 5-Apr  90 1977  73 1957

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  90  68  79 /  20  10  50  30
MCO  69  92  69  79 /  20  10  40  30
MLB  71  90  71  83 /  10  10  30  30
VRB  71  89  70  84 /  10  10  30  30
LEE  70  92  68  77 /  20  10  50  30
SFB  70  93  68  79 /  20  10  40  30
ORL  71  92  70  79 /  20  10  40  30
FPR  70  89  69  85 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Kelly/Sedlock/Smith/Rodriguez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
439 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-042045-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
439 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Deeper moisture ahead of a stalled front north of the area, may
generate isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms across
north central Florida, mainly from late this morning into the
afternoon. While main threats will be dangerous cloud to ground
lightning and heavy downpours, isolated stronger storms could
develop and produce strong wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and small
hail. Storms will move toward the east-northeast up to 30 to 35
mph.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A moderate risk for rip currents will continue at the beaches of
east central Florida today. Always swim within sight of a
lifeguard and never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms that develop over north central Florida
this afternoon will move toward the east to northeast up to 25 to
30 knots. Any stronger storms will have the potential to produce
wind gusts around 34 knots or greater as they move offshore, north
of Melbourne.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Southerly winds up to 15 to 20 knots will continue across much of
the adjacent Atlantic waters today. Small craft should exercise
caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Isolated lightning storms will again be possible ahead of a
stronger cold front late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue across the
coastal waters from mid to late week with the next frontal
passage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Weitlich

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
307 PM EDT TUE APR 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             5 E CASSELBERRY         28.68N 81.25W
04/04/2017  M1.00 INCH       SEMINOLE           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED ONE INCH HAIL IN WINTER SPRINGS.

&&

KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
313 PM EDT TUE APR 4 2017

FLZ053-058-042015-
Okeechobee FL-Osceola FL-
313 PM EDT TUE APR 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 309 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking developing thunderstorms
along the west coast sea breeze near the Kissimmee River. This
boundary will collide with an outflow boundary advancing into
Osceola County from the east and ignite new, strong thunderstorms.
Movement should be towards the east at 20 to 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
any storms that develop through late afternoon.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, Celebration, Lake Marian and Buena Ventura
Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall will be possible with any storm activity, and
may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also possible with any storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2722 8097 2736 8103 2739 8112 2749 8120
      2755 8121 2760 8114 2771 8115 2783 8122
      2786 8130 2806 8146 2801 8138 2808 8135
      2809 8145 2814 8146 2814 8152 2826 8156
      2826 8166 2834 8166 2834 8090 2715 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 278DEG 25KT 2771 8105

Sedlock

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 PM EDT TUE APR 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             5 ENE CASSELBERRY       28.69N 81.24W
04/04/2017  M1.00 INCH       SEMINOLE           FL   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAM RADIO OPERATOR MEASURED QUARTER-SIZED HAIL ABOUT 0.75
            MILES WEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF SR-417 AND SR-434 IN
            WINTER SPRINGS

&&

KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
337 PM EDT TUE APR 4 2017

FLZ047-042000-
Southern Brevard County FL-
337 PM EDT TUE APR 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
South Patrick Shores, or near Satellite Beach, moving slowly east-
southeast.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Melbourne, Satellite Beach, Indialantic and Patrick Air
Force Base.

LAT...LON 2808 8072 2824 8072 2826 8056 2813 8054
      2802 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 272DEG 28KT 2817 8066

Sedlock

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EDT TUE APR 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     TSTM WND GST     MELBOURNE AIRPORT       28.10N 80.64W
04/04/2017  M43 MPH          BREVARD            FL   ASOS

&&

PG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
412 PM EDT TUE APR 4 2017

FLZ047-054-042100-
Southern Brevard County FL-Indian River FL-
412 PM EDT TUE APR 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR  UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Melbourne Beach, or over Indialantic, moving southeast at 20 mph
across the Barrier Islands.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Melbourne, Malabar, Indialantic and Roseland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2783 8050 2814 8062 2816 8055 2812 8054
      2785 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 325DEG 23KT 2806 8054

Sedlock