Winter Weather Advisory 9, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1211 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Due to strong forcing, strong deep layer wind shear, and steep
mid-level lapse rates, two severe storms developed in southern
Wisconsin this morning.

These elevated storms developed north of a warm front draped
across far southern Wisconsin, extending from a low pressure
system in central Iowa. Most guidance suggests that the warm
front will remain in roughly the same location until the low
pressure center tracks along the front this evening. Though wind
shear will diminish somewhat as we approach the evening, it will
remain strong enough to support severe thunderstorms. Moreover,
mid level lapse rates will remain steep. Instability will remain
limited, but given the other ingredients present, more severe
storms are possible late this afternoon and into the evening as
the low approaches this area. The best chances for severe will be
in the warm sector, highlighted nicely by slight risk in the
updated D1 outlook from SPC. However, instability was underdone
with this morning's convection, so I would not be surprised to
see isolated severe storms north of the slight risk area.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Expect LIFR cigs north areas with mainly IFR south.  Some MVFR cigs
possible far south as warm front get close.

Mainly IFR/LIFR in the cold air later tonight.  IFR/LIFR in mixed
precipitation changing to snow Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory today with a few gusts to 25 knots as pressure
gradient tightens.  With lake surface temps in the upper 30s to
lower 40s, will also have to watch for dense fog development later
today into tonight as warm, moist air moves northward from the
central MS Valley region.  A few thunderstorms may also produce some
hail into the evening.

A strong surge of cold air behind passing low pressure will likely
produce more frequent wind gusts to Small Craft Advisory levels
later tonight into Wednesday.  This surge of colder air will end the
dense fog threat overnight. A Small craft advisory will be needed
for this.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

UPDATE...BSH/HENTZ
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...DDV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1056 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-011700-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1056 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely over southeast and far south central
Wisconsin this afternoon and early evening. There is a Marginal
Risk of a severe thunderstorm along and south of a line from near
Port Washington to Madison to Darlington where large hail is the
primary risk. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms extends across
from west pf janesville, and across Racine and kenosha counties
where large hail and damaging winds are possible.

Localized dense fog is possible today into this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

A wintry mix of rain and snow will change to snow Wednesday
morning. Snowfall of 2 to 5 inches is expected across most of the
area on Wednesday. Some of the snow will melt, however slushy
accumulations can be expected to cause deteriorating travel
conditions and slippery roads.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early evening.

LMZ643>646-011700-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1056 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Fog may become dense over the near shore waters this afternoon
into tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely especially south of Port Washington
this afternoon and evening. There is a Marginal Risk of a severe
thunderstorm producing large hail.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today for occasional wind
gusts to 25 knots and building waves.

Another Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed late tonight as
low pressure passes to the east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for Wednesday into Wednesday
night as colder air rides northwest winds across Lake Michigan.

Hentz

www.weather.gov/mkx

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1121 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

WIZ047-051-052-057-058-281800-
Dodge-Columbia-Green Lake-Sheboygan-Fond Du Lac-
1121 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FOND DU LAC...SOUTHEASTERN GREEN
LAKE AND NORTHERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 1121 AM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Waupun, moving
east at 55 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fond Du Lac, Beaver Dam, Waupun, North Fond Du Lac, Lomira, Markesan,
Oakfield, Rosendale, Brandon, Southern Lake Winnebago, Burnett,
Taycheedah, Lamartine, Byron, Fox Lake, Alto, Manchester, Eden, Mount
Calvary and Brownsville.

LAT...LON 4372 8814 4341 8881 4369 8910 4390 8865
      4389 8841 4394 8840 4394 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 247DEG 47KT 4364 8887

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1123 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

WIZ052-060-281800-
Sheboygan-Ozaukee-
1123 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL OZAUKEE AND
SOUTHERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES...

At 1123 AM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Random Lake,
or 9 miles south of Plymouth, moving east at 65 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, Sheboygan Falls, Oostburg, Kohler, Cedar Grove, Random
Lake, Cascade, Adell, Waldo, Silver Creek, Gibbsville, Batavia and
Hingham.

LAT...LON 4368 8770 4357 8779 4355 8779 4351 8803
      4368 8811 4378 8771 4376 8770 4372 8771
      4370 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 253DEG 55KT 4362 8793

SPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 AM     HAIL             CEDAR GROVE             43.57N 87.82W
02/28/2017  M1.00 INCH       SHEBOYGAN          WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            .

&&

RS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1146 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     HAIL             RANDOM LAKE             43.55N 87.96W
02/28/2017  M1.00 INCH       SHEBOYGAN          WI   PUBLIC

            .

&&

RS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1154 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

WIZ051-052-281830-
Sheboygan-Fond Du Lac-
1154 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES...

At 1154 AM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles north of
Campbellsport, or 12 miles southeast of Fond Du Lac, moving east at
45 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Kohler, Elkhart
Lake, Greenbush, Cascade, Waldo, St. Cloud, Glenbeulah, Haven,
Dundee, Johnsonville and Waucousta.

LAT...LON 4376 8770 4373 8771 4356 8823 4377 8836
      4389 8804 4389 8773 4381 8773 4377 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 250DEG 39KT 4371 8822

SPM