Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
230 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Focused warm air advection and low level jet nose continues to
feed the current convection, and favorable warm cloud processes
and related heavy rainfall parameters will continue to support
flash flooding into the morning hours. Will continue the Flash
Flood Watch until 15Z this morning across the area.

The current HRRR has a decent handle on current trends, and takes
most of the current activity out of the area around the middle
morning hours. They show more convection trying to develop and
moving east through the area this morning, as a 700 mb shortwave
trough moves east through the region.

There should be a lull in the precipitation late this morning into
the middle afternoon hours. If enough scattering out of the cloud
cover can occur, highs should get well into the 80s with
increasing southwest winds. There is uncertainty here, as debris
clouds from current convection may linger longer than expected.
Heat index values should climb into the middle to upper 90s this
afternoon with any appreciable sunshine.

Cold front is then expected to slowly slide southeastward across
the area mainly tonight. Low level frontogenesis response is mixed
in the models. There is an issue with capping with any convection
late this afternoon into tonight, with the very warm and humid
airmass in place.

The low level jet will still be southwest to west into tonight,
and this will have to help any surface frontogenesis to break the
cap. Strong mean layer CAPE and effective shear values are
expected, so severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are
possible. Kept chance PoPs going, due to the uncertainty in areal
coverage of storms due to the cap. Some convection moving east
across Iowa into northern Illinois may brush the far south later
tonight, though most of this activity should remain to the south.

Thursday and Thursday night - Confidence...Medium
Mid level trough axis will gradually work its way across the
area this period. Primary 500 millibar vort center will trek from
the MN arrowhead to near or just north of lower MI. A surface
cold front sill shift southeast during the day with the 00z GEM
and 12z ECMWF showing things dry after 12z however the 00z GFS and
NAM shows potential for shra/tsra ahead of this boundary. Will
probably hang onto some chances until the front clears the area
midday or early afternoon. Cold advection then kicks in with low
level thermal trough becoming established Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday - Confidence...Medium
Surface high pressure dominates and then shifts southeast of the
area Friday night and Saturday. We start to see building
heights/more anticyclonic flow in the northwest mid level flow.
Things stay quiet into at least Saturday morning before some
energy starts getting closer from the northwest. There will also
be a lower level sfc front that drawing closer to the northern CWA
Saturday afternoon. Will get pretty warm on Saturday as thermal
ridge nudges into the area ahead of the approaching cold front. At
this time guidance (except the GEM) supports keeping the precip
north of the CWA through 00z so have opted to keep the area dry
for the day on Saturday.

Saturday night - Confidence...Medium
Models in good agreement on bringing frontal boundary with decent
chances for shra/tsra.

Sunday through Tuesday - Confidence...Low to Medium
Surface high takes hold and is proggd to dominate for much of
Sunday and Monday. A return flow sets up on Tuesday. 925 temps
rise back into the 20s celsius by Tuesday. The GFS shows some
WAA/moisture advection related convection on Tuesday while the
ECMWF keeps this to our north.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall and
flash flooding in some areas will continue into early this
morning. The storms should gradually move east northeast out of
the area by the middle morning hours. Ceilings and visibilities
below alternate minimums are possible at times, with some gusty
winds and small hail possible.

Gusty southwest winds are expected from middle morning into the
afternoon. Some breaks in the clouds may occur this afternoon as
well. Very warm and humid conditions are expected with any
sunshine.

Cold front sliding southeast through the area tonight may bring
scattered strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and large hail
are possible, with ceilings and visibilities near or below
alternate minimums in any storms. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...Thunderstorms will continue to move east northeast across
the nearshore waters this morning. There should be a lull in the
activity this afternoon, with scattered strong to severe storms
possible late this afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds and
large hail are possible.

Gusty southwest winds will approach Small Craft Advisory levels
today, with gusts to around 20 knots. High waves will remain over
the open waters of Lake Michigan.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT today for WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.

LM...None.
&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Wednesday through Monday...Collar

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
327 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-130830-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
327 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

One round of thunderstorms is expected this morning with the
potential for flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect
until 10 AM. So the main threat with these morning storms will be
heavy rainfall and subsequent flash flooding.

There is a another chance for thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds
and large hail being the primary threats. A tornado or two is
possible.

The Heat Index is expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s on
Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday morning, Saturday
night and Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and this
evening. Rainfall and flooding reports are appreciated.

LMZ643>646-130830-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
327 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to affect the near shore waters
today. A couple potential rounds this morning and another later
this afternoon and this evening. Some of these storms could be
severe with damaging winds and large hail. A waterspout cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday morning, Saturday
night and again Tuesday afternoon.

Collar
www.weather.gov/mkx

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