River Flood Warning 37, NWS Milwaukee, WI

030 
WGUS83 KMKX 121633
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1133 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Wisconsin...
 
  Rock River At Afton affecting Rock COUNTY 
 

&& 
WIC105-130400-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170713T0400Z/
/AFTW3.1.ER.170712T1456Z.170712T1800Z.170712T2200Z.NO/
1133 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At 10:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.2 feet by this 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage late this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Minor flood damge occurs to lowland and 
  agricultural land adjacent to the river in the Afton and Janesville
  areas.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4265 8910 4266 8903 4261 8900 4257 8898
      4257 8909 4261 8910

$$

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 48 hour basin-average precipitation.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 7 pm...
Location       stage  stage    stage/time       Wed  Thu  Fri  Sat
Afton            9.0   8.0   9.03 10 AM 07/12   8.9  8.7  8.4  8.4

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                   7 days          stage           next 7 days
Afton            9.03  10 AM 07/12    0.60       9.20 01 PM 07/12

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from September through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through August.

Afton: 7 am-1 pm  Wed Jul 12  0.12
Afton: 1 pm-7 pm  Wed Jul 12  0.00
Afton: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Jul 12  0.11
Afton: 1 am-7 am  Thu Jul 13  0.12
Afton: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.02
Afton: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Afton: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Afton: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00

HAHN

962 
WGUS83 KMKX 122002
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
302 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Wisconsin...
 
  Rock River At Afton affecting Rock COUNTY 
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Wisconsin...Illinois...
  Fox River At Burlington affecting Racine COUNTY 
  Fox River Near New Munster affecting Kenosha AND Lake COUNTIES 
 

&& 
WIC105-130248-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170713T0248Z/
/AFTW3.1.ER.170712T1456Z.170712T1715Z.170712T2048Z.NO/
302 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  1:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 9.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.1 feet...Floodwaters affect property of a home on 
  South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4265 8910 4266 8903 4261 8900 4257 8898
      4257 8909 4261 8910

$$

WIC101-130801-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRGW3.3.ER.170712T1207Z.170713T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
302 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Fox River At Burlington.
* At  2:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.3 feet by 
  after midnight tomorrow then begin falling.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Riverside park in Burlington is flooded. 
  Floodwaters affect some streets adjacent to the river in 
  Burlington. A portion of Brever Road is flooded about 4 miles south
  of Burlington.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4277 8832 4277 8812 4269 8815 4262 8813
      4262 8832 4267 8838

$$

WIC059-ILC097-130801-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NMSW3.3.ER.170712T0823Z.170713T1200Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
302 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At  2:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.0 feet by 
  tomorrow morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 17.5 feet...This level is the 2 percent chance flood 
  meaning that there is a 2 percent chance of the river reaching this
  level in any given year. There is widespread flooding in the Town 
  of Salem and the Village of Silver Lake. Floodwaters are into the 
  lower levels of some homes in those areas.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4262 8832 4262 8814 4252 8813 4245 8811
      4245 8827 4255 8825

$$

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 48 hour basin-average precipitation.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 7 pm...
Location       stage  stage    stage/time       Wed  Thu  Fri  Sat
New Munster     11.0  10.0  14.31 02 PM 07/12  15.9 16.9 16.5 15.8
Afton            9.0   8.0   9.08 01 PM 07/12   8.9  8.7  8.4  8.4
Burlington      11.0   9.0  14.61 03 PM 07/12  14.9 15.3 14.5 13.7

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                   7 days          stage           next 7 days
Afton            9.10  12 PM 07/12    0.65       8.90 07 PM 07/12
Burlington      14.75  02 PM 07/12    5.99      15.30 01 AM 07/13
New Munster     14.07  01 PM 07/12    4.41      17.00 07 AM 07/13

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from September through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through August.

New Munster: 7 am-1 pm  Wed Jul 12  0.16
New Munster: 1 pm-7 pm  Wed Jul 12  0.11
New Munster: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Jul 12  0.32
New Munster: 1 am-7 am  Thu Jul 13  0.09
New Munster: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.01
New Munster: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
New Munster: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
New Munster: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00

Afton: 7 am-1 pm  Wed Jul 12  0.12
Afton: 1 pm-7 pm  Wed Jul 12  0.07
Afton: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Jul 12  0.23
Afton: 1 am-7 am  Thu Jul 13  0.06
Afton: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Afton: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Afton: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Afton: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00

Burlington: 7 am-1 pm  Wed Jul 12  0.20
Burlington: 1 pm-7 pm  Wed Jul 12  0.09
Burlington: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Jul 12  0.30
Burlington: 1 am-7 am  Thu Jul 13  0.08
Burlington: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Burlington: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Burlington: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Burlington: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00

HAHN

977 
WGUS83 KMKX 130154
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
854 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Wisconsin...
 
  Rock River At Afton affecting Rock COUNTY 
  East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville affecting Lafayette
  COUNTY 
  Turtle Creek Near Clinton affecting Rock COUNTY 
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Wisconsin...Illinois...
  Fox River At Burlington affecting Racine COUNTY 
  Fox River Near New Munster affecting Kenosha AND Lake COUNTIES 
  Root River Canal At Raymond affecting Racine COUNTY 
  Turtle Creek at Beloit-1 SE affecting Rock COUNTY 
 

&& 
WIC105-131354-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170713T2100Z/
/AFTW3.1.ER.170712T1456Z.170712T1715Z.170713T1500Z.NO/
854 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  7:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 8.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 9.1 feet...Floodwaters affect property of a home on 
  South Christian Road on the east side of the river in the Afton 
  area.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4275 8910 4276 8903 4261 8900 4257 8898
      4257 8909 4261 8910

$$

WIC065-131354-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0038.170713T0507Z-170713T2024Z/
/BCHW3.1.ER.170713T0507Z.170713T0600Z.170713T0824Z.NO/
854 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville.
* At  7:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 9.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and 
  continue to rise to near 11.2 feet by after midnight tomorrow.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by early tomorrow.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Floodwaters cover a portion of Highway H 
  and floodwaters are into McKellar Park in Blanchardville.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4283 8992 4284 8984 4279 8981 4272 8984
      4272 8991 4279 8991

$$

WIC101-131354-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRGW3.3.ER.170712T1207Z.170713T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
854 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Fox River At Burlington.
* At  8:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 16.5 feet by 
  after midnight tomorrow then begin falling.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Riverside park in Burlington is flooded. 
  Floodwaters affect some streets adjacent to the river in 
  Burlington. A portion of Brever Road is flooded about 4 miles south
  of Burlington.

$$

WIC059-ILC097-131354-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NMSW3.3.ER.170712T0823Z.170713T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
854 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At  8:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.5 feet by 
  tomorrow morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 17.5 feet...This level is the 2 percent chance flood 
  meaning that there is a 2 percent chance of the river reaching this
  level in any given year. There is widespread flooding in the Town 
  of Salem and the Village of Silver Lake. Floodwaters are into the 
  lower levels of some homes in those areas.

$$

WIC101-131354-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0040.170713T0730Z-170715T1200Z/
/RAYW3.1.ER.170713T0730Z.170714T0000Z.170715T0000Z.NO/
854 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Root River Canal At Raymond.
* At  7:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 8.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and 
  continue to rise to near 9.6 feet by tomorrow evening.the river 
  will fall below flood stage by Friday evening.
* Impact...At 10.1 feet...This level is the 20 percent chance flood 
  meaning there is a 20 percent chance in any given year of the river
  reaching this level. Floodwaters cover a baseball diamond on 6 Mile
  Road. There is extensive flooding to lowland and agricultural land.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4286 8803 4286 8798 4282 8796 4280 8796
       4279 8803 4282 8803

$$

WIC105-131354-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-170715T0030Z/
/CLIW3.1.ER.170713T0245Z.170713T1800Z.170714T1230Z.UU/
854 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turtle Creek Near Clinton.
* At  5:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 4.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 9.4 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.the river will fall 
  below flood stage by Friday morning.
* Impact...At 9.8 feet...This level is the 20 percent chance flood 
  meaning that there is a 20 percent chance in any given year of the 
  river reaching this level. There is widespread flooding of lowland 
  and agricultural land.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4268 8880 4253 8871 4249 8884 4250 8889
      4260 8899 4263 8885

$$

WIC105-131354-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0041.170713T1300Z-170715T0712Z/
/BOIW3.1.ER.170713T1300Z.170714T0600Z.170715T0112Z.UU/
854 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turtle Creek at Beloit-1 SE.
* At  8:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 6.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue 
  to rise to near 8.5 feet by early Friday morning.the river will 
  fall below flood stage by Friday evening.
* Impact...At 7.8 feet...Floodwaters are in the back yards of some 
  homes on East Ridge Road, Mocassin Drive, and in the Turtle Creek 
  subdivision.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4256 8903 4254 8896 4251 8896 4250 8897
      4251 8907 4253 8905

$$

&&

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted 
future 24 hour basin-average precipitation.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location       stage  stage    stage/time       Thu  Fri  Sat  Sun
Blanchardville  11.0   9.0   9.83 07 PM 07/12   9.4  5.9  5.6  5.6
New Munster     11.0  10.0  15.86 08 PM 07/12  17.4 16.6 15.9 15.2
Afton            9.0   8.0   8.79 07 PM 07/12   8.7  8.4  8.4  8.5
Raymond          9.0   7.0   8.46 07 PM 07/12   9.6  9.0  7.3  6.4
Burlington      11.0   9.0  15.94 09 PM 07/12  16.1 14.6 13.5 12.7
Clinton          8.0   6.0   4.39 05 AM 07/12   9.3  6.4  5.3  4.8
Beloit-1 SE      7.5   6.0   6.30 09 PM 07/12   8.3  7.6  5.7  5.0

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                   7 days          stage           next 7 days
Blanchardville   9.83  07 PM 07/12    4.22      11.20 01 AM 07/13
Afton            9.10  12 PM 07/12    0.39       9.10 07 AM 07/13
Raymond          8.46  07 PM 07/12    2.34       9.60 07 PM 07/13
Burlington      15.94  09 PM 07/12    7.41      16.50 01 AM 07/13
New Munster     15.62  07 PM 07/12    5.95      17.50 07 AM 07/13
Clinton          4.39  05 AM 07/12    0.21       9.40 01 PM 07/13
Beloit-1 SE      4.87  10 AM 07/12       M       8.50 01 AM 07/14

Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through August.

Blanchardville: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Jul 12  0.12
Blanchardville: 1 am-7 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Blanchardville: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Blanchardville: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Blanchardville: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Blanchardville: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Blanchardville: 7 am-1 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Blanchardville: 1 pm-7 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00

New Munster: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Jul 12  0.22
New Munster: midn-6 am  Thu Jul 13  0.06
New Munster: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.01
New Munster: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
New Munster: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
New Munster: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00
New Munster: 7 am-1 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00
New Munster: 1 pm-7 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00

Afton: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Jul 12  0.19
Afton: 1 am-7 am  Thu Jul 13  0.03
Afton: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Afton: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Afton: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Afton: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Afton: 7 am-1 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Afton: 1 pm-7 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00

Raymond: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Jul 12  0.24
Raymond: 1 am-7 am  Thu Jul 13  0.06
Raymond: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Raymond: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Raymond: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Raymond: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Raymond: 7 am-1 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Raymond: 1 pm-7 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00

Burlington: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Jul 12  0.23
Burlington: 1 am-7 am  Thu Jul 13  0.06
Burlington: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Burlington: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Burlington: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Burlington: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Burlington: 7 am-1 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Burlington: 1 pm-7 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00

Clinton: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Jul 12  0.22
Clinton: 1 am-7 am  Thu Jul 13  0.05
Clinton: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Clinton: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Clinton: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Clinton: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Clinton: 7 am-1 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Clinton: 1 pm-7 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00

Beloit-1 SE: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Jul 12  0.22
Beloit-1 SE: 1 am-7 am  Thu Jul 13  0.05
Beloit-1 SE: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Beloit-1 SE: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Beloit-1 SE: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.00
Beloit-1 SE: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Beloit-1 SE: 7 am-1 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Beloit-1 SE: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00

HAHN

492 
WGUS83 KMKX 130952
FLSMKX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
452 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2017

...The Food Warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Wisconsin...
 
  Rock River At Afton affecting Rock COUNTY
 
&& 
WIC105-131022-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170713T2100Z/
/AFTW3.1.ER.170712T1456Z.170712T1715Z.170712T1937Z.NO/
452 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Rock River At Afton.
* At  3:15 AM Thursday the stage was 8.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  2:37 PM Wednesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 8.4 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact...At 8.8 feet...This level is about a 50 percent chance 
  flood meaning that there is a 50 percent chance in any given year 
  of the river reaching this level. Floodwaters affect lowland and 
  agricultural land adjacent to the river in the Afton and Janesville
  areas.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4275 8910 4276 8903 4261 8900 4257 8898
      4257 8909 4261 8910

$$

&&

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted 
future 24 hour basin-average precipitation.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 6 pm...
Location       stage  stage    stage/time       Fri  Sat  Sun  Mon
Afton            9.0   8.0   8.67 03 AM 07/13   8.5  8.4  8.4  8.5

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                   7 days          stage           next 7 days
Afton            9.10  12 PM 07/12    0.52       8.64 07 AM 07/13

Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through August.

Afton: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Jul 13  0.19
Afton: 1 am-7 am  Fri Jul 14  0.03
Afton: 7 am-1 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Afton: 1 pm-7 pm  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Afton: 7 pm-1 am  Fri Jul 14  0.00
Afton: 1 am-7 am  Sat Jul 15  0.00
Afton: 7 am-1 pm  Sat Jul 15  0.00
Afton: 1 pm-7 pm  Sat Jul 15  0.00

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
941 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.UPDATE...

Counties bordering Illinois could remain under the gun for the
next couple hours as storms continue to fire over east-central
Iowa. Eventually, things are expected to quiet down for at least
a couple/few hours. Will watch the potential for more storms
developing late afternoon into evening as low pressure and an
associated cold front approach. Some of these storms could reach
severe limits, though hopefully storm movement will be fast enough
to limit additional flooding threat.

If the sun comes out for a time today, could see temps a bit
warmer than the current forecast. Too much uncertainty given all
the cloudiness and precip in the region to make changes right now.

&&

.AVIATION (15Z TAFS)...

Main area of storms are exiting the southeast at this time, though
watching more storms approaching from east-central Iowa. These may
impact counties along the WI/IL border over the next couple hours.
Still think there will be a quiet period then into mid-afternoon.
After that, an approaching low and associated cold front may kick
off more storms late afternoon into the evening, some of which may
be severe.

Storm chances could linger into Thursday morning, winding down by
the afternoon hours.

Other than lower ceilings and visibilities associated with
thunderstorms, should see generally VFR conditions through
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwest winds may gust to around 20 knots today, but are
expected to generally stay below Small Craft Advisory limits.
After the current round of storms exits, more storms are possible
this evening, some of which may be severe.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 230 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017)

DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Focused warm air advection and low level jet nose continues to
feed the current convection, and favorable warm cloud processes
and related heavy rainfall parameters will continue to support
flash flooding into the morning hours. Will continue the Flash
Flood Watch until 15Z this morning across the area.

The current HRRR has a decent handle on current trends, and takes
most of the current activity out of the area around the middle
morning hours. They show more convection trying to develop and
moving east through the area this morning, as a 700 mb shortwave
trough moves east through the region.

There should be a lull in the precipitation late this morning into
the middle afternoon hours. If enough scattering out of the cloud
cover can occur, highs should get well into the 80s with
increasing southwest winds. There is uncertainty here, as debris
clouds from current convection may linger longer than expected.
Heat index values should climb into the middle to upper 90s this
afternoon with any appreciable sunshine.

Cold front is then expected to slowly slide southeastward across
the area mainly tonight. Low level frontogenesis response is mixed
in the models. There is an issue with capping with any convection
late this afternoon into tonight, with the very warm and humid
airmass in place.

The low level jet will still be southwest to west into tonight,
and this will have to help any surface frontogenesis to break the
cap. Strong mean layer CAPE and effective shear values are
expected, so severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are
possible. Kept chance PoPs going, due to the uncertainty in areal
coverage of storms due to the cap. Some convection moving east
across Iowa into northern Illinois may brush the far south later
tonight, though most of this activity should remain to the south.

Thursday and Thursday night - Confidence...Medium
Mid level trough axis will gradually work its way across the
area this period. Primary 500 millibar vort center will trek from
the MN arrowhead to near or just north of lower MI. A surface
cold front sill shift southeast during the day with the 00z GEM
and 12z ECMWF showing things dry after 12z however the 00z GFS and
NAM shows potential for shra/tsra ahead of this boundary. Will
probably hang onto some chances until the front clears the area
midday or early afternoon. Cold advection then kicks in with low
level thermal trough becoming established Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday - Confidence...Medium
Surface high pressure dominates and then shifts southeast of the
area Friday night and Saturday. We start to see building
heights/more anticyclonic flow in the northwest mid level flow.
Things stay quiet into at least Saturday morning before some
energy starts getting closer from the northwest. There will also
be a lower level sfc front that drawing closer to the northern CWA
Saturday afternoon. Will get pretty warm on Saturday as thermal
ridge nudges into the area ahead of the approaching cold front. At
this time guidance (except the GEM) supports keeping the precip
north of the CWA through 00z so have opted to keep the area dry
for the day on Saturday.

Saturday night - Confidence...Medium
Models in good agreement on bringing frontal boundary with decent
chances for shra/tsra.

Sunday through Tuesday - Confidence...Low to Medium
Surface high takes hold and is proggd to dominate for much of
Sunday and Monday. A return flow sets up on Tuesday. 925 temps
rise back into the 20s celsius by Tuesday. The GFS shows some
WAA/moisture advection related convection on Tuesday while the
ECMWF keeps this to our north.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall and
flash flooding in some areas will continue into early this
morning. The storms should gradually move east northeast out of
the area by the middle morning hours. Ceilings and visibilities
below alternate minimums are possible at times, with some gusty
winds and small hail possible.

Gusty southwest winds are expected from middle morning into the
afternoon. Some breaks in the clouds may occur this afternoon as
well. Very warm and humid conditions are expected with any
sunshine.

Cold front sliding southeast through the area tonight may bring
scattered strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and large hail
are possible, with ceilings and visibilities near or below
alternate minimums in any storms. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
into tonight.

MARINE...Thunderstorms will continue to move east northeast across
the nearshore waters this morning. There should be a lull in the
activity this afternoon, with scattered strong to severe storms
possible late this afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds and
large hail are possible.

Gusty southwest winds will approach Small Craft Advisory levels
today, with gusts to around 20 knots. High waves will remain over
the open waters of Lake Michigan.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...None.
&&

Update...DDV
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...Collar

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-131630-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms is expected
from late afternoon through the evening hours. A few storms could
be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats. A tornado or two is possible. There is a small threat of
flash flooding with this new round of storms. The storms will be
moving quickly which will limit the threat of flash flooding. The
most susceptible area for flash flooding would be Walworth,
Racine, and Kenosha Counties but also including any large urban
areas over southern Wisconsin.

The Heat Index is expected to climb into the 90s this afternoon
and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday morning, Saturday
night and Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and this
evening. Rainfall and flooding reports are appreciated.

LMZ643>646-131630-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1122 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon but
more scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening
over the western near shore of Lake Michigan. Some of these
storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail. A
waterspout cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday morning, Saturday
night and again Tuesday afternoon.

www.weather.gov/mkx
MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 E RACINE              42.73N 87.74W
07/12/2017  M48 MPH          LMZ646             WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XRCN, 2 E RACINE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1003 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PEWAUKEE                43.08N 88.26W
07/12/2017  M4.60 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1015 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE DOUSMAN            43.00N 88.45W
07/12/2017  M4.10 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1016 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW BOHNERS LAKE      42.65N 88.36W
07/12/2017  M6.70 INCH       WALWORTH           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE BOHNERS LAKE      42.61N 88.23W
07/12/2017  M7.75 INCH       KENOSHA            WI   MESONET

            NMSW3 RIVER GAUGE...NEW MUNSTER DCP.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1120 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PADDOCK LAKE            42.57N 88.10W
07/12/2017  M4.54 INCH       KENOSHA            WI   COCORAHS

&&