Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
706 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...

A tornado watch is in effect until 10 pm. We just expanded it to
include the lakeshore counties from Ozaukee south because the
storms look like they'll sustain themselves all the way to the
lake.

All modes of storms are expected this evening. The deep layer and
low level shear are very strong. There is just enough CAPE to
sustain these storms. Conditions are favorable for tornadoes. We
are seeing mainly linear storms, but also some supercells in the
vicinity. There are notches developing in the lines, so we are
keeping eyes out for circulations.

Very heavy rain with these storms, but there is a general
southeast movement, so no flash flood warnings at this time. May
need to issue urban and small stream flood advisory.

The storms you see on radar are
probably the only ones we'll see, but there is still a chance
through just after midnight due to lingering instability and warm
air advection.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Storms early in the evening. Keep an eye on radar. Very heavy
rain. Strong winds are expected on leading edge of storms, hail
possible, tornado possible. The storms you see on radar are
probably the only ones we'll see, but there is still a chance
through just after midnight due to lingering instability and warm
air advection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 342 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

There is a round of thunderstorms across south central and
southeast WI right now. These are fueled by persistent warm air
advection and strong moisture transport. The ML CAPE is on the
rise and storms are starting to get a little more height to them.
Still not tall enough for severe. The storms moving into southeast
WI actually has sunshine, so that will help sustain them as they
move through.

The next round of thunderstorms approaching from IA will have the
potential to be severe. These should arrive in Madison around 5 to
6 pm. However, the low clouds that are hanging around all day are
not helping the instability situation and these storms may just
be a large multi-cell cluster by the time they reach south central
WI. Time will tell.

More storms could move through southern WI as late as midnight,
but these have a much lower chance of being severe.

Thursday through Sunday...Forecast confidence medium.

A low pressure area will move across the nrn Great Lakes and
Ontario, Canada for Thu-Thu nt while its trailing cold front
slowly moves across srn WI. Meanwhile a shortwave trough will
approach from the wsw on Thu bringing another round of convection
to far srn WI Thu aft-eve.

As the front drops swd into IL and Lower MI late Thu nt into Fri,
another shortwave trough and wave of low pressure will track
along the front bringing yet another round of convection for much
of srn WI, heaviest in se WI.

On Sat, wnwly flow will prevail with a weak cold front for the
afternoon and evening with isolated to sct tstorm development
possible. A weak ridge of high pressure will follow late Sat nt
into Sun.

Temps and humidity during this period will be near seasonal
normals.

LONG TERM...Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence low.

The models differ on the overall evolution of the synoptic pattern
and a wavering frontal boundary. Chances of showers and storms
will continue with the possibility of a stationary front in the
vicinity of srn WI.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Ceilings will gradually improve from west to east this afternoon
as we get better mixing and more heating. Plan on gusty southerly
winds as well.

We are still expecting a couple more rounds of thunderstorms.
There will be some scattered storms through late afternoon, then a
larger area of storms should approach south central WI late this
afternoon which could be severe. There is yet another chance for
storms during the evening hours which could also be strong.

MARINE...

The increasing southerly winds are delayed this afternoon due to
the morning showers, but they are starting to come up now. Winds
and waves will remain high through much of the night. A small
craft advisory is in effect.

Westerly wind gusts will approach small craft advy levels Thu
afternoon.

BEACHES...

A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect from Port Washington to
Sheboygan. Breezy southerly winds and high waves will bring a
high swim risk to the Sheboygan county beaches. Winds will be a
bit more off shore and waves will be lower south of that area.
However, a moderate swim risk covers all of southeast Wisconsin
Lake Michigan beaches.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ052.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Thursday for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...Cronce
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Cronce
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Gehring

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
728 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-291200-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
728 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Tornado Watch is in effect for most of southern Wisconsin
through late evening. Storms will produce heavy rain and may
produce damaging winds, large hail, or a tornado.

A small threat of flash flooding also exists as some areas may
see repeated rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain.

A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect into tonight for beaches in
Sheboygan County. Breezy southerly winds and high waves will
result in dangerous rip, structural, and longshore currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday through Tuesday as
multiple low pressure systems move through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed Tonight.

LMZ643>646-291200-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
728 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through tonight due to breezy
southerly winds and high waves.

Thunderstorms are likely late through late evening. Some of these
storms may be severe during this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday through Tuesday
as multiple low pressure systems move through the region.

Cronce

www.weather.gov/mkx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
625 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N REWEY               42.90N 90.40W
06/28/2017                   IOWA               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL POWER POLES SNAPPED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
711 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E GERMANTOWN          43.24N 88.08W
06/28/2017  E70 MPH          WASHINGTON         WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN AND POWER IS OUT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
714 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE OCONOMOWOC        43.12N 88.48W
06/28/2017                   WAUKESHA           WI   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF LISBON RD AND
            WI HWY 67 BYPASS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
807 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TORNADO          3 SSW MONTICELLO        42.71N 89.62W
06/28/2017                   GREEN              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF ROOF DAMAGE AND POWER POLES
            SNAPPED BETWEEN MONROE AND
            MONTICELLO...DAMAGE PATH CROSSES WI HWY 69.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
816 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

WIZ066-071-072-290200-
Milwaukee-Racine-Kenosha-
816 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES...

At 816 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from River Hills to near Harvard. Movement was
east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Milwaukee, Kenosha, Racine, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Oak
Creek, Mount Pleasant, Mequon, South Milwaukee, Pleasant Prairie,
Cudahy, Whitefish Bay, Greendale, Brown Deer, St. Francis, Hales
Corners, Sturtevant, Fox Point and Twin Lakes.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern
Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4284 8831 4284 8807 4316 8806 4320 8803
      4319 8789 4316 8788 4312 8790 4307 8787
      4302 8790 4296 8785 4285 8783 4278 8775
      4261 8782 4249 8780 4249 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 284DEG 46KT 4318 8794 4245 8858

GEHRING