Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
302 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017

.TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium
Tight pressure gradient will remain in place though expect at least
a little diurnal dropoff as the lowest levels decouple somewhat.
Rather than drop headline and reissue have opted to retain headline
since it will surely be needed heading into the next period.
Chaotic/bumpy sky upstream with weak shortwave riding through the
flow. Sct shra/isold t have formed within this region and it is
trending our way and meso models continue to support this holding
together in at least some capacity into srn WI. Strong/gusty wsw
flow has mixed out some pretty low dew points especially into our
western areas. SPC meso page and Bufkit showing some very impressive
steep lapse rates that go well into the mid levels. This weak lobe
combined with the steep lapse rates may result in some shra
development pushing into srn WI from IA/MN. However low levels are
quite dry.

.WEDNESDAY - Confidence...Medium
Elongated mid level shear zone shifts northeast leading to
increasing ridging. Tight pressure gradient persists which results
in a continuation of the very windy regime. In fact seeing 40 to 50
knots at 925 millibars so may end up being at least as windy this
period as Tuesday. So the Wind Advisory will continue. 925 temps
range from -1c to -3c in the north to 1 to 2c in the south. Will
likely see temps rise well into the 40s esp in the south with the
gusty/mixed out westerly flow.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium.

We will be transitioning into a colder northwest flow pattern by
Thursday. A trough passing through on Thursday will mark the
arrival of this new pattern, and some of the guidance kicks out
very light and splotchy qpf. For now, there is a lot of low level
dry air and will therefore keep it dry through this period. It
will feel colder on Thursday, but temps will actually be near
normal for early to mid March.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure ridging in this colder airmass will keep it dry for
the end of the week. With highs in the 20s, we'll be below normal
for a couple days.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

The ECMWF/GFS/Canadian are in pretty good agreement that a low
will push out of the plains and somewhere across either southern
Wisconsin or northern Illinois. Consensus on timing is unusually
tight this far out, with the initial warm air advection precip
pushing in as early as Sunday afternoon. The low passes through
late Sunday night through Monday with things winding down by
Monday evening. Temp profiles support a mostly all snow event and
it looks to be able to generate a few inches of snow. Not a major
event, but enough to possibly make things a little slick.

.TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure should return in the wake of the departing low. So,
dry with near normal temps expected.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
Main concern this period setting up to be a period of LLWS
tonight. This will be due to decreased mixing with still some
pretty strong winds upstairs. In fact a renewed westerly low level
wind max is expected to arrive later tonight into Wednesday
morning. Otherwise VFR this period. Did increase some mid clouds
this evening with a secondary vort axis and low level trough. Mid
level lapse rates increase through airmass by and large is quite
dry. So some shra potential is there. Expect the west winds to
decrease Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong west winds will continue over Lake Michigan into
Wednesday. A bit of a lull takes place overnight here but rather
flipping headlines back and forth have just extended the Gale
Warning to account for the renewed increase after a bit of cessation
overnight.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST Wednesday for WIZ046-047-051-052-
     056>060-062>072.

LM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CST Wednesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Collar
Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...Davis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-082130-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
329 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will move through areas west of Madison
this evening.  Strong wind gusts to 40 to 45 mph are possible.

Strong southwest winds into the early evening will diminish for a
time tonight, then increase rapidly again on Wednesday. A wind
advisory remains in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Windy conditions will continue Wednesday. West winds will gust to
40 to 50 mph. A wind advisory is in effect through 7 pm
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but wind reports are
appreciated.

LMZ643>646-082130-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
329 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Gale Warning is in effect tonight for strong southwest to west
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Strong west winds will continue Wednesday. Gale force wind gusts
will continue through Wednesday, diminishing quickly wednesday
evening.

North winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory criteria
Thursday night and Friday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
542 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017

WIZ051-052-056>059-062>064-067>069-080015-
Dodge-Green-Columbia-Lafayette-Iowa-Rock-Sheboygan-Sauk-Washington-
Fond Du Lac-Jefferson-Dane-
542 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT LAFAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN FOND DU
LAC...GREEN...SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN ROCK...COLUMBIA...
DANE...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...
SOUTHWESTERN SHEBOYGAN AND DODGE COUNTIES...

At 541 PM CST, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from near Lomira to near Darlington. Movement was east at
30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these showers.

These showers will be near...
  Lomira and Theresa around 545 PM CST.
  Campbellsport around 550 PM CST.
  Kewaskum around 555 PM CST.
  Argyle around 610 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by these showers include Nenno, Atwater,
Astico, Harmony Grove, Cooksville, Brownsville, Ashford, Ridgeway,
Hubbleton and Rewey.

LAT...LON 4284 9043 4363 8918 4363 8790 4250 8971
      4251 8973 4251 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 270DEG 26KT 4355 8840 4264 9016

MARQUARDT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>