Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Medford, OR

823 
WHUS76 KMFR 111111
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
311 AM PST SAT FEB 11 2017

PZZ376-120000-
/O.CON.KMFR.SW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170211T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0009.170211T1200Z-170212T1200Z/
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
311 AM PST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM 
PST EARLY THIS MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...8 TO 10 FEET. 

* AREAS AFFECTED...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
  AREAS FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTH. 

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CREATE A
POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALLER VESSELS AND INEXPERIENCED MARINERS.

&&

$$

PZZ350-356-370-111215-
/O.CON.KMFR.SW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170211T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
311 AM PST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM 
PST EARLY THIS MORNING...

* SEAS...BELOW 10 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. 
 
&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

406 
WHUS76 KMFR 112224
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PST SAT FEB 11 2017

PZZ376-121130-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-170212T1200Z/
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
224 PM PST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 25 KT...DECREASING TO 20 KT OR LESS SUNDAY
  MORNING.

* SEAS...STEEP 8 TO 10 FEET WITH 9 SECOND DOMINANT PERIOD.

* AREAS AFFECTED...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT 
  AREAS FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTH BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. 

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CREATE A
POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALLER VESSELS AND INEXPERIENCED MARINERS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
850 AM PST Fri Feb 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...A focus for today will be monitoring existing
flooding of several main stem rivers. Please check the latest
flood statement /PDXFLSMFR/ for details.

A morning update to the forecast is not necessary. A
surface trough is draped from southwest to northeast across
southwest Oregon and western Siskiyou County. It will continue to
produce light to locally moderate precipitation (around a tenth to
a half inch) on the west side today then on the east side late
morning through this evening with a snow level around 3500 to 4000
feet. It is expected to produce 1 to 4 inches of snow over the
Cascades and Siskiyous today and up to a couple of inches on the
east side. The majority of precipitation on the west side will
taper off by late afternoon. But, there is a shortwave offshore
which will move across the area this evening and is likely to
produce additional very light precipitation on the west side of
up to a few hundredths.

There is high confidence in a dry weekend under a building ridge.
Once the full suite of 12Z data arrives, we will look to make any
appropriate adjustments to the forecast for next week. The 12Z
GFS remains stronger than the 00Z ECMWF with a weak front Monday
night into Tuesday which may generate light precipitation. Of
greater interest, is the potential for another period of wet and
stormy weather beginning Tuesday night or Wednesday and continuing
beyond day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...10/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR are expected to be the
predominate condition into this evening. However could not rule out
brief MVFR CIGS in showers with mountains partly obscured this
afternoon into early this evening. Confidence in this is low, so did
not include the lower conditions in the TAF. Later shifts will need
to reevaluate. Also, conditions have stabilized in portions of the
Rogue Valley which could result in temporary LIFR CIGS/VIS between
12 and 14z before showers return. VFR CIGS should prevail tonight
with sufficient cloud cover preventing a lower cloud deck from
forming and the TAF's reflect this thinking. However if there's
enough clearing, then the risk for IFR or LIFR conditions will be
higher. -Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday 10 February 2017...Low pressure
will move onshore north of the waters this morning and winds will
drop below gales...mainly north of Cape Blanco and beyond 20 NM from
shore. Seas will remain high and very steep through this evening
then will ease below 10 feet but remain rather steep this weekend.
Overall, expect light to moderate northerly winds this weekend into
early next week. The next cold front has the potential for gales on
Wednesday with seas becoming high again. -Petrucelli

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 AM PST Fri Feb 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...The richest moisture plume has moved well south of
us into central California, and as a result, precipitation has
diminished greatly. Runoff from rainfall, snowmelt, or a
combination of both continues to push many area rivers into flood
stage, and several river flood warnings remain in effect.

While we are in a relative break in the precipitation, we will see
an increase in showers again later today as the main upper trough
axis and weak surface front swings through. Precipitation will be
persistent again in the upslope regions along the south coast and
into western Siskiyou County, but nothing like we've seen over
the last few days. In addition, snow levels have lowered and will
continue to lower to around 3500 feet by day's end, which will
help lock up some of this precipitation as snow in the mountains.
All of this will help ease our flooding concerns, but it will take
the rivers a while to discharge what they've already received.

Speaking of snow, we will see some in the mountains today,
including the passes, but we're only looking at 2-4 inches over
any of the major roads in the Cascades, which shouldn't be much
more than an inconvenience. The orientation of the flow doesn't
favor Siskiyou Summit, so we'll probably see even less there - in
the 0-2 inch range.

Precipitation diminishes quickly tonight, and then we enter a
period of ridging for the weekend and into early next week. Other
than patchy late night and morning valley fog, Saturday through
Monday looks dry, mostly clear, and relatively mild. All guidance
indicates we'll be right back into the wet and stormy weather by
mid next week, and it will likely last at least into the following
weekend. So, enjoy the break in the weather this weekend. -Wright

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

DW/SBN/MAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
823 AM PST FRI FEB 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE PISTOL RIVER      42.26N 124.39W
02/10/2017  M1.17 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
826 AM PST FRI FEB 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 E GOLD BEACH          42.42N 124.31W
02/10/2017  M1.58 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1111 AM PST FRI FEB 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S MOUNT SHASTA        41.30N 122.32W
02/10/2017  M1.27 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL AS OF 8 AM PST.

&&

MND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1236 PM PST FRI FEB 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     FLOOD            1 ESE SEIAD VALLEY      41.84N 123.18W
02/10/2017                   SISKIYOU           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PORTION OF HWY 96 BETWEEN SEIAD VALLEY AND
            HAMBURG IS CLOSED DUE TO 1.5 FEET OF WATER
            COVERING ROAD.

&&

MND