River Flood Warning 15, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
353 PM PST Thu Feb 9 2017

Updated AVIATION Section

.SHORT TERM...

The mature low off shore continues to weaken as shown my pressure
gradients from major airports in the region. The Medford and
Redding pressure gradient has diminished down to 3 from 8 earlier
this morning. Still kept the wind warning in the Cascades out to
0z because the front is a little slower than expected. Squaw peak
is still gusting to 60mph, so the westward facing Cascades should
still see some of the strong elevated winds ahead of the front.
Eventually later this evening, these winds should continue to
diminish as the low continues to weaken.

As the front pushes further onshore and eventually diminishes,
post frontal showers and rain will continue along the coast and
for some inland areas. The upper level energy aloft will then
drift south and pull up some more moisture for Friday giving us
additional rainfall at the coast and along the Cascades primarily.
As cooler temperatures move inland, we are expecting snow along
the Cascade range during Friday. Some of the snow fall totals from
5000 to 7000 feet will be around 6 inches over 18 hours, which is
right on the cusp of winter weather advisory criteria.

As for additional flooding, it looks like the bulk of the heavy
rain is over for most of the inland areas. We're expecting more
rain along the coast and near the Brookings area into Friday with
no major impacts expected. As the trough to the south passes late
Friday evening, high pressure will gradually begin to build into
the weekend bringing rather pleasant weather.

The only other mention left is fog with dewpoints currently
sitting at 52 degrees in Medford. If we get a little bit of
clearing tonight and calm enough winds, some patchy fog is
possible. Didn't add it to the weather grids right now as
confident was a little to low.

CZS

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)...Strong ridging will
maintain dry weather across the forecast area Monday and Tuesday
although by Tuesday mid and high level clouds will be spreading into
the area. The coastal waters could see light rain ahead of the next
system. Both the ECMWF and the GFS are close in timing and bring the
next front inside 130W Tuesday night. Rain chance increases across
the west side of the Cascades Wednesday, and by Thursday both models
spread precipitation into all of our forecast area. Snow levels
during these two days will be in the 6500-7000 foot range but are
expected to lower 5000-6000 foot range Thursday night. The pattern
looks wet beyond Thursday with the snow levels falling to around 400
feet next weekend. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...10/00Z TAF CYCLE...A frontal system is moving well east
of the Cascades this evening. Winds are still gusty along the
coast and over the east side, but are easing across most of the
rest of the area. Even so, turbulence could still be an issue
for the next several hours. Overall, expect a mix of MVFR and VFR
with showers and terrain obscured tonight. Showers should diminish
in coverage overnight, but another front will move onshore Friday
morning bringing more widespread showers into afternoon. Conditions
will once again vary from VFR to MVFR with mountain obscurations
likely. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 PM PST Thursday 9 February 2017...Winds have
veered to southwest and subsided to advisory strength in most areas
this afternoon. Low pressure moving northeast toward Washington will
bring an increase in winds tonight with occasional gale force gusts
into early Friday morning...mainly north of Cape Blanco and beyond
20 NM from shore. Seas will remain high and very steep into Friday
then will ease below 10 feet but remain rather steep this weekend.
Overall, expect light to moderate northerly winds this weekend into
early next week. The next cold front has the potential for gales on
Wednesday with seas becoming high again. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ024>031.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ021-022.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ023>025.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ027-028.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ029.

CA...High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ085.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ085.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ085.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ084.
     Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ080.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ083.

Pacific Coastal Waters...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ350-356.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Friday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

CZS/FJB/MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
207 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE LANGLOIS          42.94N 124.45W
02/09/2017  M2.79 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT PST.

&&

MND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
208 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE LANGLOIS          42.94N 124.45W
02/09/2017  M5.59 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL IS AS OF NOON PST.

&&

MND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
209 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW HARBOR            42.05N 124.26W
02/09/2017  M3.73 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL FROM 9 AM PST 2/8/2017 THROUGH 1230 PM
            PST 2/9/2017.

&&

MND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
316 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW OBRIEN            42.06N 123.73W
02/09/2017  M2.50 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

MND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
352 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW LAKESIDE          43.59N 124.18W
02/09/2017  M1.92 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL AS OF NOON PST.

&&

MND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
414 PM PST THU FEB 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S MCCLOUD             41.22N 122.15W
02/09/2017  M3.12 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

&&

MAS