Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
309 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front
from Lake Huron back through Indiana, Southeast Missouri, then
back through Northwest Arkansas, and Eastern Oklahoma. Across the
Lower Mississippi Valley. A warm, moist, and unstable airmass is
in place across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 2 PM CDT
ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s. Showers and
thunderstorms are occurring across much of the Mid-South with the
best coverage near the Memphis metro area as of discussion.
Strong to severe thunderstorm potential tonight into perhaps a
portion of the area tomorrow and rain chances for late this week
into next weekend are the primary concerns in this afternoon's
forecast.

Latest mesoanalysis trends indicate surface based CAPE values
between 3000-4000 J/kg over the forecast area, LI's approaching -8
and precipitable water values around 2 inches. Strong to severe
thunderstorm potential is possible for the remainder of the
afternoon into early/mid evening across the Mid-South with the
best potential occurring over portions of West Tennessee and North
Mississippi. Damaging winds will remain the predominant severe
thunderstorm threat along with a potential for localized flash
flooding from heavy rainfall. 12Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF indicate a
potential for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop
along the slowly moving cold front across much of the area.
However, the latest HRRR run along with some of the CAM models
including the WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM indicate convective chances may
gradually shift to areas mainly across East Arkansas and North
Mississippi overnight. Evening shift will continue to monitor
trends and adjust forecast as needed. A marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms may extend into portions of Northeast Mississippi
into the day Monday. Meanwhile, drier air will begin filtering in
behind the front bringing a gradual end to rain chances for the
remainder of Monday through Wednesday night.

12Z GFS/ECMWF long term models indicate a tropical wave in the
Caribbean will move into the Gulf of Mexico this week but vary on
the direction it will move with a spread covering anywhere from
the Texas Gulf coast to the Mississippi/Alabama coast.
Nonetheless, models indicate this tropical moisture will
eventually move into the Lower Mississippi Valley towards next
weekend and combine with an approaching cold front to increase
shower and thunderstorm chances for the latter half of the period.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

The primary aviation concern over the next 12 hours is the complex
of storms moving across central AR at this time. These storms are
expected to continue an easterly progression, affecting the Mid-
South forecast terminals throughout the afternoon hours. Gusty
west to northwest winds and tempo IFR conditions are likely with
this line of storms. Additional showers and thunderstorms, and
potentially an area of lingering stratiform rain, are possible
through the afternoon and evening hours with more development
possible overnight as a weak cold front moves across the area.
This will shift winds from the northwest at 5-10 mph for Monday
morning.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
435 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-191145-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
435 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe weather across the Mid-South
today and tonight as a cold front moves through the region.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible today into tonight.
Damaging winds are the main threat. Large hail is a secondary
threat. The front will move slowly so flash flooding is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a marginal risk for severe weather across Northeast
Mississippi on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today through Monday.

SJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
156 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

ARZ049-058-181930-
Phillips AR-Lee AR-
156 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR...

Phillips County in eastern Arkansas...
Lee County in eastern Arkansas...

At 156 PM CDT...strong thunderstorms were producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located along a line extending
from Haynes to near Elaine. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Phillips and Lee Counties should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3434 9105 3434 9100 3447 9100 3447 9104
      3491 9094 3490 9048 3480 9051 3478 9055
      3475 9054 3473 9057 3469 9054 3467 9059
      3459 9057 3432 9066 3431 9066 3432 9069
      3437 9068 3437 9076 3430 9075 3428 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 264DEG 27KT 3490 9078 3432 9092

JOHNSON

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

MSZ001-002-008-182030-
Marshall MS-DeSoto MS-Tate MS-
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR...

Western Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Eastern DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 256 PM CDT...strong thunderstorms were producing winds at least 40
mph was located along a line extending from Olive Branch to near
Senatobia. Movement was east at 45 mph.

${report2}

People in western Marshall...eastern DeSoto and Tate Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3499 8997 3499 8944 3455 8963 3456 9009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 262DEG 38KT 3498 8982 3458 8999

JOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

TNZ088-089-182030-
Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR...

Western Fayette County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Shelby County in western Tennessee...

At 300 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located over Collierville, moving east at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in western Fayette and southeastern Shelby Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3499 8944 3499 8986 3523 8981 3525 8968
      3538 8967 3538 8964 3537 8964 3538 8963
      3540 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 263DEG 35KT 3509 8970

JOHNSON

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