Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
309 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front
from Lake Huron back through Indiana, Southeast Missouri, then
back through Northwest Arkansas, and Eastern Oklahoma. Across the
Lower Mississippi Valley. A warm, moist, and unstable airmass is
in place across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 2 PM CDT
ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s. Showers and
thunderstorms are occurring across much of the Mid-South with the
best coverage near the Memphis metro area as of discussion.
Strong to severe thunderstorm potential tonight into perhaps a
portion of the area tomorrow and rain chances for late this week
into next weekend are the primary concerns in this afternoon's
forecast.

Latest mesoanalysis trends indicate surface based CAPE values
between 3000-4000 J/kg over the forecast area, LI's approaching -8
and precipitable water values around 2 inches. Strong to severe
thunderstorm potential is possible for the remainder of the
afternoon into early/mid evening across the Mid-South with the
best potential occurring over portions of West Tennessee and North
Mississippi. Damaging winds will remain the predominant severe
thunderstorm threat along with a potential for localized flash
flooding from heavy rainfall. 12Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF indicate a
potential for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop
along the slowly moving cold front across much of the area.
However, the latest HRRR run along with some of the CAM models
including the WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM indicate convective chances may
gradually shift to areas mainly across East Arkansas and North
Mississippi overnight. Evening shift will continue to monitor
trends and adjust forecast as needed. A marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms may extend into portions of Northeast Mississippi
into the day Monday. Meanwhile, drier air will begin filtering in
behind the front bringing a gradual end to rain chances for the
remainder of Monday through Wednesday night.

12Z GFS/ECMWF long term models indicate a tropical wave in the
Caribbean will move into the Gulf of Mexico this week but vary on
the direction it will move with a spread covering anywhere from
the Texas Gulf coast to the Mississippi/Alabama coast.
Nonetheless, models indicate this tropical moisture will
eventually move into the Lower Mississippi Valley towards next
weekend and combine with an approaching cold front to increase
shower and thunderstorm chances for the latter half of the period.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

The primary aviation concern over the next 12 hours is the complex
of storms moving across central AR at this time. These storms are
expected to continue an easterly progression, affecting the Mid-
South forecast terminals throughout the afternoon hours. Gusty
west to northwest winds and tempo IFR conditions are likely with
this line of storms. Additional showers and thunderstorms, and
potentially an area of lingering stratiform rain, are possible
through the afternoon and evening hours with more development
possible overnight as a weak cold front moves across the area.
This will shift winds from the northwest at 5-10 mph for Monday
morning.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
352 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-192300-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
352 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into tonight. Damaging
winds are the main threat for any thunderstorms that reach severe
limits. The front will move slowly so flash flooding is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a marginal risk for severe weather across Northeast
Mississippi on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required tonight and on Monday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
333 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

TNZ020-021-050>052-182100-
Carroll TN-Madison TN-Crockett TN-Gibson TN-Haywood TN-
333 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Madison County in western Tennessee...
Crockett County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Gibson County in western Tennessee...
Haywood County in western Tennessee...

At 333 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located over Bells, or 11 miles southwest of Humboldt, moving
east at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Carroll...Madison...Crockett...southeastern
Gibson and Haywood Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3543 8890 3543 8918 3540 8919 3540 8945
      3587 8934 3585 8860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 254DEG 24KT 3572 8908

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W HUGHES              34.95N 90.50W
06/18/2017                   ST. FRANCIS        AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON HWY 38 IN HUGHES RESULTING IN POWER
            LINES LANDING ONTO A CAR.

&&

CJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
347 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

TNZ003-020-021-182115-
Carroll TN-Weakley TN-Gibson TN-
347 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR...

Western Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Southern Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Gibson County in western Tennessee...

At 347 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Trenton, moving
east at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in western Carroll...southern Weakley and Gibson Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3585 8856 3586 8911 3589 8912 3620 8898
      3620 8896 3621 8896 3637 8852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 252DEG 23KT 3599 8888

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MIDTOWN MEMPHIS         35.13N 89.98W
06/18/2017                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DOWNED LARGE TREE CAUSED DAMAGE TO TWO HOMES.

&&

JOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
355 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

MSZ003>005-009-TNZ090-091-182145-
Tippah MS-Benton MS-Alcorn MS-Prentiss MS-Hardeman TN-McNairy TN-
355 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR...

Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Eastern Benton County in northeastern Mississippi...
Western Alcorn County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northwestern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
McNairy County in western Tennessee...

At 355 PM CDT...strong thunderstorms were producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located along a line extending
from 8 miles southeast of Bolivar to 7 miles east of Bethlehem.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Tippah...eastern Benton...western Alcorn...northwestern
Prentiss...southeastern Hardeman and McNairy Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3459 8872 3459 8874 3460 8874 3460 8916
      3459 8926 3525 8902 3524 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 260DEG 36KT 3517 8890 3460 8921

JOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
357 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

MSZ002-013>015-182145-
Lafayette MS-Pontotoc MS-Marshall MS-Union MS-
357 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR...

Eastern Lafayette County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northwestern Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Union County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 357 PM CDT...strong thunderstorms were producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located along a line extending
from 8 miles east of Bethlehem to near Holly Springs National Forest.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in eastern Lafayette...northwestern Pontotoc...southeastern
Marshall and Union Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3419 8965 3458 8928 3458 8925 3460 8924
      3460 8916 3459 8874 3458 8874 3419 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 256DEG 18KT 3459 8919 3427 8952

JOHNSON